WEBVTT 00:00.014 --> 00:02.048 Jawabin Stratfor: "Shekaru 100 na hare-haren Amurka kan abotar Jamus da Rasha" 00:02.048 --> 00:04.286 Majalisar Harkokin Duniya ta Chicago. 4 ga Fabrairu 2015, Chicago, Amurka 00:04.286 --> 00:11.104 Sunana Nick Brand, kuma ni ne Daraktan Shirye-shiryen Haɗin Gwiwa a Majalisar Harkokin Duniya ta Chicago. 00:11.104 --> 00:13.280 Na gode da zuwanku. 00:13.280 --> 00:17.489 Ina so in yi amfani da wannan dama don maraba da George Friedman a nan Majalisar Chicago. 00:17.489 --> 00:22.120 Ina tsammanin wannan ne karo na farko da ya zo nan, na gode da kasancewa tare da mu. 00:22.120 --> 00:24.560 George Friedman: Babu wuri da zai iya kasancewa cikin lumana har abada. 00:24.560 --> 00:28.920 Ko Amurka ma ba ta tsira; ina nufin, mu (Amurka) kullum muna tare da yaƙe-yaƙe (ko muna fuskantar tasirinsu). 00:28.920 --> 00:37.240 Ina zargin cewa Turai ba za ta koma manyan yaƙe-yaƙe ba, amma za ta koma ga yanayin rayuwar ɗan adam na al'ada: 00:37.240 --> 00:42.640 Zai sami yaƙe-yaƙensa, lokutan zaman lafiyarsa, kuma zai rasa rayukansa. 00:42.640 --> 00:48.429 Ba za a sami mutuwar mutane miliyan ɗari ba kamar yadda ya faru a yakin da ya gabata, amma ra'ayin 00:48.429 --> 00:51.560 keɓantacciyar Turai, a ganina, zai taimaka wa hakan. 00:51.560 --> 00:57.200 Za a sami rikice-rikice a Turai; an riga an samu rikice-rikice a Yugoslavia kuma yanzu har a Ukraine. 00:57.200 --> 01:02.880 Dangantakar Turai da Amurka – ba mu da wata dangantaka da Turai. 01:02.880 --> 01:10.160 Muna da dangantaka da Romania, da Faransa, amma babu wata Turai da Amurka ke da dangantaka da ita. 01:10.160 --> 01:20.673 Tambaya daga masu sauraro: Shin tsattsauran ra'ayin Islama shine babbar barazana ga 01:20.673 --> 01:28.380 Amurka, kuma zai ƙare ko zai ci gaba da wanzuwa? 01:31.409 --> 01:38.760 George Friedman: Shi matsala ne ga Amurka, amma ba barazana ga kasancewarta ba. 01:38.760 --> 01:46.120 Dole ne a magance wannan yadda ya kamata. Muna da wasu muradun manufofin waje. 01:46.120 --> 01:53.699 Babban abin da manufofin wajen Amurka suka mayar da hankali a kansa a cikin ƙarni na baya, a Yaƙin Duniya na Farko da na Biyu 01:53.699 --> 02:01.520 da kuma a lokacin Yaƙin Sanyi, shi ne dangantaka tsakanin Jamus da Rasha, domin haɗe su ne kaɗai ƙarfi da zai iya barazana mana. 02:01.520 --> 02:06.400 Babban damuwarmu shi ne tabbatar da cewa hakan bai faru ba. 02:06.400 --> 02:13.400 Idan kai ɗan Ukraine ne, za ka nemi shi kaɗai wanda zai iya taimaka maka, kuma shi ne Amurka. 02:13.400 --> 02:19.368 Makon da ya gabata, ko kusan kwanaki goma da suka wuce, babban kwamandan sojojin ƙasa na Amurka 02:19.368 --> 02:22.320 a Turai, Janar Ben Hodges, ya ziyarci Ukraine. 02:22.320 --> 02:28.400 Ya sanar a can cewa ba da jimawa ba mashawarcin sojin Amurka za su iso Ukraine a hukumance. 02:28.400 --> 02:34.284 A gaskiya ya ba 'yan fafutuka na Ukraine lambobin yabo a wurin, duk da cewa ƙa'idar soja ta 02:34.284 --> 02:37.840 Amurka ta hana ba wa 'yan ƙasashen waje lambobin yabo. 02:37.840 --> 02:43.941 Amma ya yi hakan ne saboda yana son nuna cewa sojojin Ukraine su ne sojojinsa. Sai ya tafi. 02:43.941 --> 02:50.570 Kuma yanzu Amurka tana ba da makamai, manyan bama-bamai da sauran kayan soja ga kasashen Baltic 02:50.570 --> 02:53.920 – kasashen Baltic, Romania, Poland da Bulgaria. 02:53.920 --> 02:57.520 Wannan batu ne mai matuƙar ban sha'awa. 02:57.520 --> 03:03.000 Jiya, Amurka ta sanar cewa tana shirin ba da makamai ga Ukraine. 03:03.000 --> 03:10.120 An ƙi amincewa da hakan, amma suna yin sa, ana isar da makaman. 03:10.120 --> 03:15.600 Kuma a duk waɗannan ayyuka, Amurka tana aiki a wajen NATO. 03:15.600 --> 03:22.380 Wannan saboda dole ne duk membobin NATO su yanke shawara da cikakken jituwa. 03:24.840 --> 03:32.680 Manufar duk wannan ita ce Amurka na kafa katanga ta lafiya, belin tsaro, a zagaye Rasha. 03:32.680 --> 03:39.320 Kuma Rasha ta san haka. Rasha na ganin cewa Amurka na niyyar halaka Tarayyar Rasha. 03:39.320 --> 03:44.680 Ina ganin ba ma son mu kashe su, sai dai mu raunana su kaɗan ko mu yi musu wani lahani. 03:44.680 --> 03:47.880 A kowane hali, yanzu mun koma wasan da aka saba. 03:47.880 --> 03:54.350 Kuma idan ka tambayi mutumin Poland, Hungary ko Romania, suna rayuwa a duniya daban kwata-kwata da ta Jamusawa, kuma 03:54.350 --> 03:57.920 Jamusawa suna rayuwa a duniya daban kwata-kwata da ta Sifenawa. 03:57.920 --> 04:01.080 Don haka akwai sabani a Turai. 04:01.080 --> 04:08.280 Amma zan gaya maka daidai abin da 'yan Ukraine za su fi so: za su yi ƙoƙarin kawo Amurka cikin ƙasarsu. 04:08.280 --> 04:14.000 Amurka, daga muradin asali, tana sarrafa duk tekun duniya. 04:14.000 --> 04:16.560 Babu wata iko da ta taɓa yin hakan. 04:16.560 --> 04:21.760 Saboda haka, muna mamaye ƙasashen duniya, kuma babu abin da za su iya yi game da shi. 04:21.760 --> 04:23.920 Wannan abu ne mai kyau sosai. 04:23.920 --> 04:29.040 Kiyaye iko a kan teku da a sararin samaniya shi ne tushen ikonmu. 04:29.040 --> 04:34.200 Mafi kyawun hanya don doke rundunar jiragen abokan gaba ita ce hana a gina ta. 04:34.200 --> 04:42.880 Hanyar da Birtaniya ta tabbatar cewa babu wata ƙasar Turai da za ta iya gina jiragen ruwa ita ce ta sa Turawa su yi yaƙi da juna. 04:42.880 --> 04:49.240 Manufar da zan ba da shawara ita ce wadda Ronald Reagan ya aiwatar a Iran da Iraki. 04:49.240 --> 04:55.280 Ya tallafa wa bangarori biyu a yakin, don su yi yaƙi da juna maimakon mu. 04:55.280 --> 05:00.400 An yi shi da niyyar yin ba daidai ba, kuma abin ya saba wa ɗabi'a, amma ya yi aiki. 05:00.400 --> 05:06.440 Kuma wannan ne ainihin maganar: Amurka ba ta cikin matsayi na mamaye dukkan Eurasia. 05:06.440 --> 05:13.040 Da zarar takalmominmu suka taɓa ƙasa a can, za a fi mu yawa a ƙididdiga. 05:13.040 --> 05:18.120 Za mu iya doke sojoji, amma ba mu cikin matsayi na mamaye Iraki. 05:18.120 --> 05:25.240 Kawai tunanin cewa sojojin Amurka 130,000 suna mamaye ƙasa mai mutane miliyan 25... 05:25.240 --> 05:34.760 Adadin 'yan sanda ga mazauna a New York ya fi adadin sojojin Amurka ga al'ummar Iraki. 05:34.760 --> 05:42.595 Don haka, ba mu cikin matsayi na yin tsoma baki da soja a ko'ina ba, amma muna cikin matsayi, da farko, na tallafawa ƙasashen da 05:42.595 --> 05:49.144 ke yaƙi da juna domin su mai da hankali kan kansu – ta fuskar siyasa, ta fuskar kuɗi, da ta fuskar soja, ta 05:49.144 --> 05:53.000 hanyar samar da makamai da tura masu ba da shawara na Amurka. 05:53.000 --> 05:59.574 Kuma a lokuta na musamman, kamar yadda muka yi a Japan, a'a, a Vietnam, Iraki da 05:59.574 --> 06:03.600 Afghanistan, mu tsoma baki da hare-haren lalata. 06:03.600 --> 06:11.880 Dabarar hare-haren gaba ɗaya ba a nufa don kayar da makiyi ba, sai dai don jefa su cikin rudani. 06:11.880 --> 06:21.200 Mun yi hakan a kowace yaƙi, kamar a Afghanistan, inda muka jefa Al Qaeda cikin rudani. 06:21.200 --> 06:28.240 Matsalar da muke da ita, tunda muna matasa kuma jahilai, ita ce muna jefa abokan gaba cikin rudani maimakon mu ce: 06:28.240 --> 06:31.923 Mun yi aiki mai kyau, mu koma gida yanzu, mu ce: 06:31.923 --> 06:35.760 Ai, wannan ya kasance mai sauƙi. Mu gina dimokuradiyya anan ma. 06:35.760 --> 06:40.080 Wannan shi ne lokacin raunin tunaninmu da ya rinjaye mu. 06:40.080 --> 06:46.560 Don haka, amsar ita ce cewa Amurka ba za ta iya tsoma baki da sojoji a ko'ina a Eurasia ba. 06:46.560 --> 06:49.920 Dole ne a yi tsoma baki da zaɓi kuma a yi shi da ƙarancin yawa gwargwadon iko. 06:49.920 --> 06:55.160 Tsoma bakin soja lamari ne na musamman a gare mu, mafita ta ƙarshe. 06:55.160 --> 06:58.640 Ba za mu iya tura sojojin Amurka a mataki na farko ba. 06:58.640 --> 07:03.520 Amma idan muka tura sojojin Amurka, to, kamar yadda muka riga mun fahimta a fili daga kwarewa, 07:03.520 --> 07:08.280 Dole ne a iyakance tsoma-baki, kada ya kai ga girma matuka. 07:08.280 --> 07:14.240 Da fatan mun fahimta a wannan karon, domin yawanci yara suna ɗaukar lokaci kafin su koyi a aji. 07:14.240 --> 07:19.240 Amma ka yi daidai kwata-kwata, mu a matsayin daular ba za mu iya yin hakan ba (mu tsoma baki a ko'ina). 07:19.240 --> 07:27.560 Birtaniya ba su mamaye Indiya a wancan lokacin ba; sun dai ɗauki jihohin Indiya daban-daban suka bar su su yi yaƙi da juna. 07:27.560 --> 07:31.560 Birtaniyawa sun nada jami'an Birtaniya a cikin rundunar sojin Indiya. 07:31.560 --> 07:37.823 Romawa na dā ba su tura sojoji zuwa yankuna masu nisa a wajen Daular Roma ba, sai dai sun 07:37.823 --> 07:40.920 nada sarakunan masu goyon bayan Roma a can. 07:40.920 --> 07:47.926 Waɗannan sarakuna sun yi mulki a wasu ƙasashe a madadin Daular Roma, kuma su ne ke da alhakin kiyaye 07:47.926 --> 07:51.920 zaman lafiya mai goyon bayan Roma a kan iyakokin daular. 07:51.920 --> 07:55.320 Wannan haka yake, misali, da Daular Parthiya. 07:55.320 --> 08:01.480 Don haka, daular da ke ƙoƙarin mulƙin kai tsaye a yankunan da aka mamaye ba ta yi nasara 08:01.480 --> 08:04.840 ba, kamar yadda ya faru da daular Nazi, misali. 08:04.840 --> 08:08.560 Domin babu wanda ke da isasshen iko don yin mulki kai tsaye. 08:08.560 --> 08:11.120 Dole ne ka yi wayo game da shi. 08:11.120 --> 08:13.600 Duk da haka, ba matsalar mu ba ce. 08:13.600 --> 08:17.880 A gaskiya yana nufin cewa mu masarauta ce a matsayin haka. 08:17.880 --> 08:24.200 Duk da haka, bai kamata mu yi tunanin cewa za mu iya shakatawa, mu koma gida mu daina damuwa da komai ba. 08:24.200 --> 08:27.440 Mun shiga kusan babi uku ne kawai a cikin littafin. 08:27.440 --> 08:32.740 Tambaya ta gaba daga masu sauraro: 08:38.968 --> 08:46.200 Shin na fahimce ka daidai cewa kuɗin Turai, euro, ba zai tsira ba ...? 08:46.200 --> 08:53.421 George Friedman: Tambayar da ke gaban 'yan Rasha a yanzu ita ce ko suna so Ukraine ta zama yankin kariya tsakanin Rasha da Yamma 08:53.421 --> 09:00.133 wanda a kalla zai kasance ba tare da ɓangare ba – ko kuwa Yamma za ta ci gaba da matsawa cikin Ukraine har NATO ta rage 09:00.133 --> 09:03.800 nisan kilomita 100 daga Stalingrad da kilomita 500 daga Moscow? 09:03.800 --> 09:07.920 Ga Rasha, matsayin Ukraine tambaya ce ta wanzuwa. 09:07.920 --> 09:12.120 Kuma 'yan Rasha ba za su iya kawai barin wannan batu su watsar da shi ba. 09:12.120 --> 09:19.800 Ga Amurka, idan Rasha ta ci gaba da tsoma baki a Ukraine, za mu dakatar da Rasha. 09:19.800 --> 09:26.200 An ɗauki matakai don wannan manufa, kuma an nada Janar Hodges a matsayin wanda za a zargi. 09:26.200 --> 09:37.296 Yana game da shirya sojoji a gaba a Romania, Bulgaria, Poland da ƙasashen Baltic – Intermarium, yankin da ke tsakanin Tekun 09:37.296 --> 09:43.160 Baƙar fata da Tekun Baltic, wanda Pilsudski ya yi mafarki a kai. 09:43.160 --> 09:47.220 Wannan ita ce mafita da aka fi so ga Amurka. 09:53.880 --> 09:58.760 Kuma abin da ba mu da amsa a kansa shi ne tambayar: 09:58.760 --> 10:03.120 Me Jamus za ta yi a wannan yanayi? 10:03.120 --> 10:11.653 Gaskiyar abin da ba a sani ba a Turai shi ne Jamusawa. Idan Amurka ta gina wannan belin tsaro, ba a Ukraine 10:11.653 --> 10:15.880 ba amma a yamma, tasirin Rasha a Ukraine zai raguwa. 10:15.880 --> 10:19.320 Ba mu san matsayin Jamus zai kasance ba. 10:19.320 --> 10:22.200 Jamani tana cikin wani yanayi na musamman sosai. 10:22.200 --> 10:27.040 Tsohon Firayim Ministan Jamus Gerhard Schröder yana cikin hukumar kulawa ta Gazprom. 10:27.040 --> 10:30.640 Jamusawa suna da dangantaka mai matuƙar rikitarwa da Rasawa. 10:30.640 --> 10:33.200 Amma su kansu ba su san abin da za su yi ba. 10:33.200 --> 10:37.400 Suna buƙatar fitar da kayansu, kuma 'yan Rasha za su iya sayen su. 10:37.400 --> 10:43.640 A gefe guda kuma, suna rasa yankin cinikinsu na 'yanci, wanda suke buƙata don gina wasu abubuwa. 10:43.640 --> 10:53.000 Babban damuwar Amurka shi ne cewa jarin Jamus da fasahohin Jamus za su haɗu da albarkatun ƙasar Rasha da ma'aikatan Rasha. 10:53.000 --> 11:01.100 Haɗu su ƙirƙiri haɗin gwiwa na musamman wanda Amurka ke ƙoƙarin hana tun tsawon ƙarni ɗaya. 11:03.120 --> 11:08.920 To, ta yaya za mu hana wannan haɗin gwiwar Jamus da Rasha faruwa? 11:08.920 --> 11:18.460 Amurka ta shirya ta bayyana duk katunan ta a kan tebur: wannan shi ne layin da ke tsakanin ƙasashen Baltic da Tekun Baƙar Ruwa. 11:34.440 --> 11:38.360 A bangaren Rasha, katunan sun kasance a kan tebur koyaushe. 11:38.360 --> 11:43.560 A gare su, yana da matukar muhimmanci cewa Ukraine ta zama ƙasa mai tsaka-tsaki, ba wadda ke goyon bayan Yammaci ba. 11:43.560 --> 11:46.280 Belarus lamari ne daban a nan. 11:46.280 --> 11:53.206 To, duk wanda zai iya amsa mini wannan tambayar, wato abin da 'yan Jamus za su yi a wannan yanayin, zai iya kuma gaya 11:53.206 --> 11:56.640 mini yadda tarihin shekaru ashirin masu zuwa zai kasance. 11:56.640 --> 12:01.120 Amma abin takaici, 'yan Jamus suna buƙatar sake yanke wannan shawara sau da yawa. 12:01.120 --> 12:04.480 Kuma wannan shine matsalar dindindin ta Jamus. 12:04.480 --> 12:10.880 Jamus ƙasa ce mai matuƙar ƙarfi a tattalin arziki, amma a lokaci guda tana da rauni sosai a fannin siyasa ta duniya. 12:10.880 --> 12:14.560 Kuma ba su san yadda da kuma inda za su iya sayar da kayayyakin fitarwarsu ba. 12:14.560 --> 12:21.120 Tun daga 1871, wannan koyaushe ita ce tambayar Jamus. Kuma tambayar Turai. 12:21.120 --> 12:26.120 Ka yi la'akari da batun Jamus, wanda yanzu ake sake tasowa. 12:26.120 --> 12:35.600 Wannan ita ce tambayar da ta biyo baya da muke buƙatar yi – amma ba ma yin hakan saboda ba mu san abin da 'yan Jamus za su yi ba.