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Okwu Stratfor: "Afọ 100 nke mwakpo
US megide enyi German na Russia"

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Nzukọ Chicago maka Ihe Metụtara
Ụwa. 4 Febụwarị 2015, Chicago, USA

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Aha m bụ Nick Brand, ma abụ m Onye Ndu Mmemme
Jikọtara na Ụlọ Ọrụ Chicago maka Ihe Metụtara Ụwa.

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Daalụ maka ịbịa.

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Achọrọ m iji ohere a nabata George
Friedman ebe a na The Chicago Council.

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Echere m na nke a bụ oge mbụ ọ
bịara ebe a, daalụ maka isonye anyị.

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George Friedman: Ọ dịghị ebe nwere
ike ịnọ n'udo ruo mgbe ebighị ebi.

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Ọ bụghị ọbụna Amerịka; ana m ekwu na
anyị (Amerịka) na-adị mgbe niile na agha.

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Echere m na Europe agaghị alaghachi n'ọgụ
ukwu, ma ọ ga-alaghachi n'ọnọdụ mmadụ nkịtị:

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Ọ ga-enwe agha ya, oge udo ya, ma ọ ga-efu ndụ ya.

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Agaghị enwe nde mmadụ 100 nwụrụ dịka n'ọgụ gara aga, ma echiche
na Europe pụrụ iche, echere m, ga-enyere aka n'ime nke a.

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A ga-enwe esemokwu na Europe; e nwere esemokwu na
Yugoslavia, ma ugbu a e nwekwara esemokwu na Ukraine.

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Mmekọrịta Europe na United States –
anyị enweghị mmekọrịta ọ bụla na Europe.

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Anyị nwere mmekọrịta na Romania, na France, ma ọ
dịghị Europe ọ bụla United States nwere mmekọrịta na ya.

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Ajụjụ sitere n'aka ndị na-ege ntị: Ọ̀ bụ ịgba
ọchịchị Islam nke ukwuu ihe egwu kacha ibu nye United

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States, ma ọ ga-ala n'iyi ma ọ bụ ga-aga n'ihu ịdị?

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George Friedman: Ọ bụ nsogbu maka
United States, mana ọ bụghị ihe egwu dị ndụ.

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A ghaghị ijikwa nke a n'ụzọ kwesịrị ekwesị.
Anyị nwere mmasị ndị ọzọ gbasara atụmatụ mba ọzọ.

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Ebumnuche kacha mkpa nke usoro mmekọrịta mba US n'ime narị afọ
gara aga, n'oge Agha Ụwa Mbụ na nke Abụọ na n'oge Agha

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Oyi, bụ mmekọrịta dị n'etiti Germany na Russia, n'ihi na ha
abụọ jikọtara ọnụ bụ naanị ike nwere ike ịkpata anyị egwu.

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Ihe kacha tụrụ anyị n'obi bụ ijide n'aka na nke a agaghị eme.

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Ọ bụrụ na ị bụ Onye Ukraine, ị ga-achọ naanị
onye nwere ike inyere gị, nke bụ United States.

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Izu gara aga, ma ọ bụ ihe dị ka ụbọchị iri gara aga, onyeisi
agha ala Amerịka na Europe, General Ben Hodges, gara Ukraine.

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O kwupụtara ebe ahụ na ndị ndụmọdụ agha US ga-abịa
n'Ukraine n'usoro gọọmenti n'oge na-adịghị anya.

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N'eziokwu, o nyere ndị agha Ukraine medal n'ebe ahụ, ọ bụ
ezie na ụkpụrụ agha US na-egbochi inye ndị mba ọzọ medal.

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Ma o mere ya n'ihi na o choro igosi na ndi
agha Ukraine bu ndi agha ya. Mgbe ahu o hapuru.

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Ugbu a, United States na-enye ngwa agha, ụgbọ
agha na akụrụngwa agha ndị ọzọ nye steeti

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Baltic – steeti Baltic, Romania, Poland na Bulgaria.

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Nke ahụ bụ isi okwu na-atọ ụtọ nke ukwuu.

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Ụnyaahụ, United States kwupụtara na ọ
na-eme atụmatụ ịnye Ukraine ngwa agha.

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E jụrụ nke ahụ, ma ha na-eme ya, a na-ebuga ngwa agha.

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Ma n'ime ihe omume ndị a niile, Amerịka na-eme ihe n'èzí NATO.

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Nke a bụ n'ihi na mkpebi NATO ga-ewere
n'otu olu site n'aka ndị òtù NATO niile.

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Ihe kpatara ihe niile a bụ na Amerịka na-etolite ókè
nchebe ahụ́, ma ọ bụ eriri nchekwa, gburugburu Russia.

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Ma Russia maara nke a. Russia kwenyere na United
States nwere ebumnuche ibibi Njikọ Ndị Russia.

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Echere m na anyị achọghị igbu ha, kama anyị
chọrọ imerụ ha ntakịrị ma ọ bụ mee ka ha nwee mmebi.

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N'agbanyeghị ihe ọ bụla, anyị
alọghachila ugbu a n'egwuregwu ochie.

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Ma ọ bụrụ na ị jụrụ onye Poland, onye Hungary ma ọ bụ onye
Romania, ha bi n'ụwa kpamkpam dị iche na nke ndị Jamani,

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na ndị Jamani bi n'ụwa kpamkpam dị iche na nke ndị Spain.

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Ya mere, e nwere esemokwu na Europe.

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Ma aga m gwa gị kpọmkwem ihe ndị Ukraine
ga-ahọrọ: ha ga-agbalị iburu US n'ala ha.

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Amerịka, n'ihi mmasị ya bụ isi,
na-achịkwa oke osimiri niile nke ụwa.

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Enweghị ike ọ bụla mere nke ahụ.

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N'ihi nke a, anyị na-awakpo mba ụwa niile,
ọ dịghịkwa ihe ha nwere ike ime gbasara ya.

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Nke ahụ bụ ihe dị ezigbo mma.

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Ịna-achị oke osimiri na mbara igwe bụ isi iyi ike anyị.

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Ụzọ kacha mma isi merie ụgbọ
mmiri ndị iro bụ igbochi ka e wuo ha.

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Ụzọ ndị Britain si hụ na ọ dịghị ike Europe nwere ike
iwulite ụgbọ mmiri agha ya bụ ime ka ndị Europe lụọ ọgụ ibe ha.

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Atụmatụ m ga-atụ aro bụ nke Ronald
Reagan jiri mee ihe na Iran na Iraq.

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Ọ kwadoro akụkụ abụọ n'ọgụ ahụ, ka ha lụọ
ọgụ megide onwe ha kama ịlụ ọgụ megide anyị.

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Ọ bụ ihe obi ọjọọ, ọ bụ ihe a
na-akpagbu n'ihe gbasara omume, ma ọ rụrụ ọrụ.

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Ma nke ahụ bụ isi okwu: United States
adịghị n'ọnọdụ iji jide Eurasia niile.

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Ozugbo akpụkpọ ụkwụ anyị metụtara ala ebe ahụ, a
na-enwe ndị megide anyị karịrị anyị n'ọnụ ọgụgụ.

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Anyị nwere ike imeri agha, ma anyị adịghị n'ọnọdụ iji jide Iraq.

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Echiche ahụ n'onwe ya na ndị agha US 130,000
na-achị obodo nwere nde mmadụ iri abụọ na ise...

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Ọnụọgụ ndị uwe ojii maka ndị bi na New York
karịrị ọnụọgụ ndị agha US maka ndị bi na Iraq.

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Ya mere, anyị adịghị n'ọnọdụ iji agha banye n'ebe niile, ma anyị
nọ n'ọnọdụ, n'elu ihe niile, ịkwado ndị ọchịchị na-alụ ọgụ ibe ha

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ka ha wee nwee ike ilekwasị anya n'onwe ha –
ịkwado ha n'ihe ndọrọndọrọ ọchịchị, ego, na agha,

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site n'inye ngwa agha na izipu ndị ndụmọdụ US.

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Ma n'ọnọdụ pụrụ iche, dịka anyị mere na Japan, mba, na
Vietnam, Iraq na Afghanistan, banye n'ọgụ iji bibie.

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Atụmatụ mwakpo mbido abụghị iji merie onye
iro, kama ọ bụ iji mee ka ha daa n'ọdịmma.

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Anyị nwara nke ahụ n'ọgụ ọ bụla, dịka na
Afghanistan, ebe anyị mere ka Al Qaeda daa n'usoro.

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Nsogbu anyị nwere, ebe anyị ka bụ ndị ntorobịa na ndị
nzuzu, bụ na anyị na-eme ka ndị iro anyị daa n'usoro kama ịsị:

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Anyị emeela ọrụ ọma, ka anyị laa n'ụlọ ugbu a, ka anyị sị:

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Chineke m! Nke ahụ dị mfe. Ka anyị wuo
ọchịchị onye kwuo uche ya ebe a kwa.

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Nke ahụ bụ oge adịghị ike uche anyị meriri anyị.

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Ya mere, azịza bụ na Amerịka enweghị ike
itinye agha n'akụkụ niile nke Eurasia.

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Ntinye aka ga-adị nhọrọ ma dị obere o kwere mee.

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Ntinye agha bụ ọnọdụ pụrụ iche maka
anyị, ọ bụ ihe ikpeazụ anyị ga-eji.

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Anyị apụghị izipu ndị agha US n'ụzọ mbụ.

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Ma ọ bụrụ na anyị zitere ndị agha US, mgbe
ahụ, dịka anyị si amụta nke ọma site na ahụmịhe,

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Ntinye aka ahụ ga-adị oke ókè ma ghara iru oke buru ibu.

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Enwere olileanya na anyị aghọtara nke a oge a, n'ihi
na ọ na-ewekarị ụmụaka oge ka ha mụta n'ụlọ akwụkwọ.

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Ma ị ziri ezi kpamkpam, anyị dịka alaeze
enweghị ike ime nke ahụ (itinye aka n'ebe niile).

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Ndị Britain anaghị achị India n'oge ahụ; ha nanị were
steeti dị iche iche nke India wee hapụ ha ka ha lụọ ọgụ ibe ha.

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Ndị Britain etinyela ndị ofisa Britain n'ọgbakọ agha India.

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Ndị Rom oge ochie ezughi ndị agha n'ógbè dịpụrụ adịpụ
n'èzí Alaeze Rom, kama ha wụnyere eze ndị kwadoro Rom ebe ahụ.

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Ndị eze ndị a na-achị n'aha Alaeze Rom na mba ndị ọzọ, ha
na-ahụ maka idobe udo na-akwado Rom n'ókèala alaeze ahụ.

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Nke a bụ otu ihe ahụ, dịka ọmụmaatụ, na Alaeze Parthia.

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Ya mere, alaeze ndị na-agbalị ịchịkwa ozugbo n'ógbè ndị e
jidere na-ada ada, dịka ọ dị na alaeze Nazi, dịka ihe atụ.

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N'ihi na ọ nweghị onye nwere ike zuru oke iji chịkwaa ozugbo.

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Ị ga-eji amamihe mee ya.

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Otú ọ dị, nke ahụ abụghị nsogbu anyị.

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N'eziokwu, ọ pụtara na anyị bụ alaeze ukwu dịka nke ahụ.

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Otú ọ dị, anyị ekwesịghị iche na anyị nwere ike izu ike,
laa n'ụlọ ma kwụsị ichegbu onwe anyị banyere ihe ọ bụla.

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Anyị ka nọ naanị ihe dị ka isi atọ n'ime akwụkwọ ahụ.

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Ajụjụ ọzọ sitere n'aka ndị na-ege ntị:

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Ọ̀ ghọtara m gị nke ọma na ego Europe, euro, agaghị adịgide ...?

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George Friedman: Ajụjụ dị ugbu a n'elu tebụl maka ndị Rọshịa bụ
ma ha chọrọ ka Ukraine bụrụ mpaghara nche n'etiti Rọshịa na Ọdịda

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Anyanwụ nke ga-anọgide na-adịghị akụkụ – ma ọ bụ ma Ọdịda Anyanwụ
ga-aga n'ihu ruo n'ime Ukraine nke mere na

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Ọdịda Anyanwụ (NATO) ga-adị naanị kilomita 100
site na Stalingrad na kilomita 500 site na Moscow?

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Maka Russia, ọnọdụ Ukraine bụ ajụjụ gbasara ịdị adị ya.

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Ma ndị Rọshịa apụghị ịhapụ nsogbu a ma gbaghara ya.

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Maka United States, ma ọ bụrụ na Russia gara
n'ihu itinye aka na Ukraine, anyị ga-akwụsị Russia.

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E mere usoro iji ruo ebumnuche a, maka nke a
a họpụtara General Hodges ka e kpọọ ya asị.

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Ọ bụ maka ịkwadebe ndị agha n'ihu na Romania, Bulgaria,
Poland na steeti Baltic – Intermarium, ala dị n'etiti Oké

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Osimiri Ojii na Oké Osimiri Baltic, nke Pilsudski rọrọ nrọ.

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Nke a bụ ngwọta kacha masị maka USA.

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Ma ihe anyị enweghị azịza maka ya bụ ajụjụ:

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Gịnị ka Germany ga-eme n'ọnọdụ a?

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Ihe amaghị ama n'eziokwu na Europe bụ ndị Jamanị. Ọ
bụrụ na US wuo eriri nche a, ọ bụghị na Ukraine kamakwa

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n'ebe ọdịda anyanwụ, mmetụta Russia na Ukraine ga-ebelata.

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Anyị amaghị etu ọnọdụ ndị Jamanị ga-adị.

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Germany nọ n'ọnọdụ pụrụ iche nke ukwuu.

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Onye bụbu kansọlị Germany, Gerhard
Schröder, nọ na bọọdụ nlekọta Gazprom.

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Ndị Jamanị nwere mmekọrịta dị
mgbagwoju anya nke ukwuu na ndị Rọshịa.

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Ma ha onwe ha amaghị ihe ha ga-eme.

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Ha chọrọ ibupụ ngwongwo ha, ma ndị Rọshịa nwere ike ịzụta ha.

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N'aka nke ọzọ, ha tufuru mpaghara azụmahịa
efu ha, nke ha chọrọ iji wuo ihe ndị ọzọ.

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Ihe kacha metụta United States bụ na ego na teknụzụ
German ga-ejikọta na akụrụngwa Russia na ọrụ aka Russia.

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Jikọta ọnụ ka e mepụta ngwakọta pụrụ iche
nke USA na-agbalị igbochi kemgbe otu narị afọ.

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Ya mere, kedu ka anyị ga-esi gbochie njikọ
a n'etiti Germany na Russia ka ọ ghara ime?

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Amerịka dị njikere ịkọ kaadị ya n'elu tebụl: ọ bụ
ahịrị dị n'etiti mba Baltic na Oké Osimiri Ojii.

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N'akụkụ Russia, kaadị ndị ahụ dị mgbe niile n'elu tebụl.

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Maka ha, ọ dị oke mkpa ka Ukraine bụrụ mba
na-enweghị akụkụ, ọ bụghị nke na-akwado ndị ọdịda anyanwụ.

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Belarus bụ okwu dị iche ebe a.

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Ọfọn, onye ọ bụla nwere ike ịza ajụjụ ahụ maka m, ihe
ndị Jamanị ga-eme n'ọnọdụ a, nwekwara ike ịgwa m otú

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akụkọ ihe mere eme ga-esi dị n'afọ iri abụọ na-abịa.

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Ma nwute, ndị Jamanị ga-eme mkpebi a ugboro ugboro.

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Ma nke ahụ bụ nsogbu ebighi ebi nke Germany.

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Germany nwere nnukwu ike akụ na ụba, ma n'otu oge
dịkwa adịghị ike n'ihe gbasara ndọrọ ndọrọ ụwa.

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Ha amaghị mgbe niile otu na ebe ha ga-ere mbupu ha.

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Kemgbe 1871, ajụjụ a bụ mgbe niile
ajụjụ Germany. Ma ajụjụ maka Europe.

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Tụlee ajụjụ German, nke ugbu a na-apụta ọzọ.

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Nke ahụ bụ ajụjụ ọzọ anyị kwesịrị ịjụ – mana anyị
anaghị ajụ ya n'ihi na anyị amaghị ihe ndị Jamanị ga-eme.