1
00:00:00,014 --> 00:00:02,048
Puo ea Stratfor: "Lilemo tse 100 tsa litlhaselo tsa
US khahlanong le setsoalle sa Jeremane le Russia"

2
00:00:02,048 --> 00:00:04,286
Lekgotla la Chicago la Ditaba tsa Lefatshe
ka bophara. 4 Hlakola 2015, Chicago, USA

3
00:00:04,286 --> 00:00:11,104
Lebitso la ka ke Nick Brand, mme ke Motsamaisi wa Mananeo a
Kopanetsweng ho Lekgotla la Chicago la Ditaba tsa Lefatshe.

4
00:00:11,104 --> 00:00:13,280
Kea leboha ka ho tla.

5
00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:17,489
Nka rata ho nka monyetla ona ho amohela
George Friedman mona Lekgotleng la Chicago.

6
00:00:17,489 --> 00:00:22,120
Ke nahana hore ke lekgetlo la hae la
pele mona, ke a leboha ka ho ba le rona.

7
00:00:22,120 --> 00:00:24,560
George Friedman: Ha ho sebaka se ka
dulang se le ka kgotso ka ho sa feleng.

8
00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:28,920
Le eona USA, ke bolela hore, rona (USA) re
lula re patiloe (kapa re angoa) ke lintoa.

9
00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:37,240
Ke belaela hore Europe e ke ke ya kgutlela dintweng tse
kgolo, empa e tla kgutlela maemong a tlwaelehileng a botho:

10
00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:42,640
E tla ba le dintwa tsa yona, dinako tsa yona tsa
kgotso, mme e tla lahlehelwa ke maphelo a yona.

11
00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:48,398
Ho ke ke ha e-ba le mafu a limilione tse 100 joaloka
ntoeng e fetileng, empa mohopolo oa hore Europe e

12
00:00:48,398 --> 00:00:51,560
ikhethile, ke nahana hore, o tla kenya letsoho ho sena.

13
00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:57,200
Ho tla ba le likhohlano Europe; ho se ho bile
le likhohlano Yugoslavia mme jwale le Ukraine.

14
00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:02,880
Kamano ea Europe le United States – ha re na kamano le Europe.

15
00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:10,160
Re na le likamano le Romania, le Fora, empa ha
ho na Europe eo US e nang le likamano le eona.

16
00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:21,345
Potso e tsoang ho bamameli: Na bofetohedi ba
Maislamo ke tšokelo e kholo ho United States, mme na

17
00:01:21,345 --> 00:01:28,380
bo tla fela kapa bo tla tsoela pele ho ba teng?

18
00:01:31,409 --> 00:01:38,760
George Friedman: Ke bothata ho United
States, empa e se tšokelo e ka etsang hore e fele.

19
00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:46,120
Sena se tlameha ho sebetswa ka tsela e loketseng. Re na
le dithahasello tse ding tsa pholisi ya kantle ho naha.

20
00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:53,258
Sepheo se seholo sa leano la kantle ho naha la US lekholong la
bofelo la lilemo, Ntoeng ea Pele ea Lefatše, Ntoeng ea Bobeli ea

21
00:01:53,258 --> 00:01:58,597
Lefatše le nakong ea Ntoa ea Mantsoe, e ne e le
kamano pakeng tsa Jeremane le Russia, hobane ha

22
00:01:58,597 --> 00:02:01,520
li le 'moho ke tsona feela matla a ka re sokelang.

23
00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:06,400
Ntho ea rona ea sehlooho e ne e le ho
etsa bonnete ba hore sena ha se etsahale.

24
00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:13,400
Haeba u Mo-Ukraine, o tla batla e mong
feela ea ka o thusang, 'me ke United States.

25
00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:19,347
Bekeng e fetileng, kapa matsatsi a ka bang 10 a
fetileng, molaodi-moholo wa mabotho a fatshe a Amerika naheng ya

26
00:02:19,347 --> 00:02:22,320
Europe, Molaodi-kakaretso Ben Hodges, o etetse Ukraine.

27
00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:28,400
O ile a phatlalatsa moo hore baeletsi ba sesole sa US
ba tla fihla naheng ya Ukraine haufinyane ka molao.

28
00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:34,550
Haele hantle, o ile a abela bahlabani ba
Ukraine limetale moo, leha melao ea sesole ea

29
00:02:34,550 --> 00:02:37,840
US e thibela ho abeloa ha limetale ho basele.

30
00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:43,941
Empa o entse jwalo hobane o ne a batla ho bontsha
hore sesole sa Ukraine ke sesole sa hae. Yaba o tsamaya.

31
00:02:43,941 --> 00:02:50,297
Mme jwale United States e fana ka dibetsa, dikanono
le disebediswa tse ding tsa sesole ho dinaha tsa

32
00:02:50,297 --> 00:02:53,920
Baltic – dinaha tsa Baltic, Romania, Poland le Bulgaria.

33
00:02:53,920 --> 00:02:57,520
Hoo ke ntlha e kgahlang haholo.

34
00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:03,000
Maobane, United States e phatlalalitse
hore e rera ho fana ka dibetsa ho Ukraine.

35
00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:10,120
Seo se latotsoe, empa ba ntse ba
se etsa; dibetsa di ntse di iswa.

36
00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:15,600
Mme mesebetsing ena kaofela, US e sebetsa kantle ho NATO.

37
00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:22,380
Sena ke hobane liqeto tsa NATO li tlameha ho nkuoa
ka tumellano e feletseng ke litho tsohle tsa NATO.

38
00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:32,680
Ntlha ea taba ena kaofela ke hore US e theha lebanta la
tšireletso, kapa 'cordon sanitaire', ho potoloha Russia.

39
00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:39,320
Mme Russia e a tseba sena. Russia e dumela hore
US e ikemiseditse ho senya Federation ya Russia.

40
00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:44,680
Ke nahana hore ha re batle ho ba bolaea, empa re batla
feela ho ba utloisa bohloko hanyenyane kapa ho ba kotsetsa.

41
00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:47,880
Leha ho le jwalo, jwale re kgutletse papading ya kgale.

42
00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:53,259
Mme ha o botsa Mo-Poland, Mo-Hungary kapa Mo-Romania, ba phela
lefatsheng le fapaneng ka ho felletseng le

43
00:03:53,259 --> 00:03:57,920
la Majeremane, mme Majeremane a phela
lefatsheng le fapaneng ka ho felletseng le la Spain.

44
00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:01,080
Kahoo ho na le ho se lumellane Europe.

45
00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:08,280
Empa ke tla le bolella hantle seo Maukraine a tla
se khetha: a tla leka ho kenya US naheng ea ona.

46
00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:14,000
Amerika, ka lebaka la bohlokoa ba yona ba
motheo, e laola maoatle ohle a lefatshe.

47
00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:16,560
Ha ho puso e kileng ea etsa joalo.

48
00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:21,760
Ka lebaka lena, re hlasela ditjhaba tsa
lefatshe, mme ha ho letho leo di ka le etsang ka hona.

49
00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:23,920
Hoo ke ntho e ntle haholo.

50
00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:29,040
Ho laola maoatle le sepakapaka ke motheo oa matla a rona.

51
00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:34,200
Tsela e molemohali ea ho hlola sehlopha sa
likepe sa sera ke ho thibela kaho ea sona.

52
00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:40,006
Mokhoa oo Mabrithani a ileng a etsa bonnete ba
hore ha ho na matla a Europe a ka hahang sehlopha sa

53
00:04:40,006 --> 00:04:42,880
likepe, e bile ho etsa hore Ma-Europe a lwanane.

54
00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:49,240
Pholisi eo nka e khothalletsang ke eo
Ronald Reagan a e sebelisitseng Iran le Iraq.

55
00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:55,280
O ile a tshehetsa mahlakore ka bobedi
ntweng, e le hore a lwanelane, eseng rona.

56
00:04:55,280 --> 00:05:00,400
E ne e le ka boqhekanyetsi, e ne e le e
nyarosang boitšoaro, empa e ile ea atleha.

57
00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:06,440
Mme ntlha ke ena: United States ha e
maemong a ho hapa Eurasia kaofela.

58
00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:13,040
Hang ha dieta tsa rona di kgoma mobu moo, re ba palo e fokolang.

59
00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:18,120
Re ka hlola sesole, empa ha re na matla a ho hapa Iraq.

60
00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:25,240
Kgopolo feela ya hore masole a US a 130,000 a
hapile naha e nang le batho ba dimilione tse 25...

61
00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:34,760
Tekanyo ea mapolesa ho baahi New York e kholo
ho feta tekanyo ea masole a US ho baahi ba Iraq.

62
00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:43,478
Kahoo, ha re maemong a ho kena lipakeng ka sesole hohle, empa re
maemong, pele ho tsohle, a ho tšehetsa mebuso e loanang e le hore

63
00:05:43,478 --> 00:05:49,714
e ka tsepamisa maikutlo ho eona – ho e tšehetsa
ka lipolotiki, ka lichelete, le ka sesole, ka

64
00:05:49,714 --> 00:05:53,000
ho fana ka libetsa le ho romela baeletsi ba US.

65
00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:59,222
Mme maemong a sa tlwaelehang, jwalo ka ha re
entse Japane, tjhe, Vietnam, Iraq le

66
00:05:59,222 --> 00:06:03,600
Afghanistan, re kena dipakeng ka ditlhaselo tse senyang.

67
00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:11,880
Leqheka la litlhaselo tsa pele ha le
reretsoe ho hlola sera, empa ke ho se ferekanya.

68
00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:21,200
Re lekile seo ntoeng e 'ngoe le e 'ngoe, joalo ka
Afghanistan, moo re ileng ra ferekanya Al Qaeda.

69
00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:28,240
Bothata boo re nang le bona, kaha re sa le banyenyane ebile re
le maoatla, ke hore re ferekanya lira tsa rona ho e-na le ho re:

70
00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:31,923
Re sebelitse hantle, ha re ee hae jwale, ha re re:

71
00:06:31,923 --> 00:06:35,760
Ao, ho bile bonolo. Ha re theheng demokerasi le mona.

72
00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:40,080
Eo e bile motsotso oa bofokoli ba
kelello ea rona o ileng oa re hlola.

73
00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:46,560
Ka hona, karabo ke hore US e ke ke ya
kena dipakeng ka sesole hohle Eurasia.

74
00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:49,920
Keno-lipakeng e tlameha ho khethoa, mme e be e
sa etsahaleng hangata kamoo ho ka khonehang.

75
00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:55,160
Ho kena lipakeng ha sesole ho rona ke taba
e khethehileng, e leng qetello ea bofelo.

76
00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:58,640
Ha re ka ke ra romela masole a US mohatong oa pele.

77
00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:03,520
Empa haeba re romela masole a US, joale, jwalo ka ha
re se re utlwisitse ka ho hlaka ho tswa phihlelong,

78
00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:08,280
Keno-lipakeng e tlameha ho
lekanyetsoa 'me e se ke ea hola ho feta tekano.

79
00:07:08,280 --> 00:07:14,240
Re tšepa hore re utloisitse lekhetlong lena, hobane
hangata ho nka nako hore bana ba ithute ka phaposing.

80
00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:19,240
Empa o nepile ruri, rona re le mmuso o moholo,
re ke ke ra etsa jwalo (ho kena-kenana hohle).

81
00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:24,693
Mabrithani ha a ka a hapa India ka nako eo; ba
ile ba nka feela mebuso e ikemetseng ea India eaba

82
00:07:24,693 --> 00:07:27,560
ba e tlohela hore e lwane e khahlanong le e 'ngoe.

83
00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:31,560
Mabrithani a kentse balaodi ba Mabrithani sesoleng sa India.

84
00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:37,538
Baroma ba boholo-holo ba ne ba sa romele masole
libakeng tse hole ka ntle ho 'Muso oa Roma, empa ho

85
00:07:37,538 --> 00:07:40,920
e-na le hoo ba ne ba beha marena a tšehetsang Roma moo.

86
00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:48,084
Marena ana a ne a busa molemong oa 'Muso oa Roma
linaheng tse ling, 'me a ne a ikarabella bakeng sa

87
00:07:48,084 --> 00:07:51,920
ho boloka khotso e tšehetsang Roma meeling ea 'muso.

88
00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:55,320
Sena e ne e le taba, mohlala, ka Mmuso wa Parthia.

89
00:07:55,320 --> 00:08:01,343
Ka hona, mebuso ya bokolone e lekang ho busa ka
kotloloho dinaheng tse hapilweng e a hloleha,

90
00:08:01,343 --> 00:08:04,840
jwalokaha ho bile kateng ka mmuso wa Bonazi, mohlala.

91
00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:08,560
Hobane ha ho na motho ea nang le
matla a lekaneng ho busa ka kotloloho.

92
00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:11,120
O tlameha ho ba bohlale ka taba ena.

93
00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:13,600
Leha ho le jwalo, eo ha se bothata ba rona.

94
00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:17,880
Ha e le hantle ho bolela hore re mmuso o moholo joalo ka ona.

95
00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:24,200
Leha ho le jwalo, ha re a lokela ho nahana hore re ka
phutholoha, ra ya hae mme ra kgaotsa ho tshwenyeha ka letho.

96
00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:27,440
Re sa le feela likhaolo tse ka bang tharo bukeng.

97
00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:32,740
Potso e latelang ho tsoa ho bamameli:

98
00:08:38,968 --> 00:08:46,200
Na ke utlwisitse hantle hore tjhelete
ya Europe, euro, e ke ke ya atleha ...?

99
00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:52,036
George Friedman: Potso e leng teng hona joale ho Marussia ke hore
na ba batla hore Ukraine e be sebaka sa tshireletso pakeng tsa

100
00:08:52,036 --> 00:08:57,736
Russia le Bophirimela se tla dula se le bohareng bonyane – kapa
Bophirimela bo tla hatela pele ho kena ka hare ho Ukraine hoo

101
00:08:57,736 --> 00:09:01,247
Bophirimela (NATO) bo tla ba sekgala sa
dikhilomithara tse 100 feela ho tloha

102
00:09:01,247 --> 00:09:03,800
Stalingrad le dikhilomithara tse 500 ho tloha Moscow?

103
00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:07,920
Ho Russia, boemo ba Ukraine ke potso ya bophelo ba setjhaba.

104
00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:12,120
Mme Marussia a ke ke a tlohela taba ena feela.

105
00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:19,800
Bakeng sa United States, haeba Russia e tswela
pele ho kena-kenana le Ukraine, re tla e emisa.

106
00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:26,200
Ho ile ha nkuoa mehato bakeng sa sena,
'me Molaoli-kakaretso Hodges a qosetsoa.

107
00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:34,929
E mabapi le ho bea masole pele naheng tsa Romania, Bulgaria,
Poland le linaheng tsa Baltic – Intermarium,

108
00:09:34,929 --> 00:09:43,160
sebaka se pakeng tsa Leoatle le Lentsho le Leoatle
la Baltic, seo Pilsudski a neng a lora ka sona.

109
00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:47,220
Ena ke tharollo e ratoang haholo bakeng sa USA.

110
00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:58,760
Mme ntho eo re se nang karabo ea eona ke potso:

111
00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:03,120
Jeremane e tla etsa'ng boemong bona?

112
00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:11,602
Ntlha ea sebele e sa tsejoeng Europe ke Majeremane. Haeba
US e haha lebanta lena la tšireletso, eseng Ukraine empa ka

113
00:10:11,602 --> 00:10:15,880
bophirimela, tšusumetso ea Russia Ukraine e tla fokotseha.

114
00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:19,320
Ha re tsebe hore na boemo ba Majeremane bo tla ba joang.

115
00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:22,200
Jeremane e maemong a sa tloaelehang haholo.

116
00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:27,040
Kanselara oa mehleng oa Jeremane Gerhard
Schröder ke setho sa boto ea bahlokomeli ea Gazprom.

117
00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:30,640
Majeremane a na le kamano e rarahaneng haholo le Marussia.

118
00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:33,200
Empa bona ka bo bona ha ba tsebe hore na ba etse'ng.

119
00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:37,400
Ba hloka ho romela thepa ea bona
kantle ho naha, 'me Marussia a ka e reka.

120
00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:43,640
Ka lehlakoreng le leng, ba lahleheloa ke sebaka sa bona sa khoebo
e lokolohileng, seo ba se hlokang ho haha lintho tse ling.

121
00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:49,542
Ntlha e kholo e tšoenyang USA ke hore chelete e
kholo le theknoloji ea Jeremane li tla kopanngoa le

122
00:10:49,542 --> 00:10:53,000
lisebelisoa tsa mehloli ea Russia le basebetsi ba Russia.

123
00:10:53,000 --> 00:11:01,100
ho kopana ho etsa motsoako o ikhethang oo USA e
bileng e leka ho o thibela ka lilemo tse lekholo.

124
00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:08,920
Joale re ka thibela jwang kopano ena ya Majeremane le Marussia?

125
00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:18,460
US e itokiselitse ho pepesa maikemisetso a yona: ke
moedi o pakeng tsa Dinaha tsa Baltic le Leoatle le Letsho.

126
00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:38,360
Ka lehlakoreng la Russia, dintho di dula di le pepeneneng.

127
00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:43,560
Ho bona, ho bohlokoa haholo hore Ukraine e be naha e sa
nkeng lehlakore, eseng e tšehetsang linaha tsa Bophirimela.

128
00:11:43,560 --> 00:11:46,280
Belarus ke taba e fapaneng mona.

129
00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:53,206
Hantle, mang kapa mang ea ka nkarabelang potso eo, hore na
Majeremane a tla etsa'ng boemong bona, a ka mpolella hape hore

130
00:11:53,206 --> 00:11:56,640
na nalane ea lilemo tse 20 tse tlang e tla shebahala joang.

131
00:11:56,640 --> 00:12:01,120
Empa ka bomadimabe, Majeremane a
tlameha ho etsa qeto ena kgafetsa.

132
00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:04,480
Mme ke yona bothata bo sa feleng ba Jeremane.

133
00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:10,880
Jeremane e matla haholo moruong, empa ka nako e tšoanang
e fokolang haholo litabeng tsa lipolotiki tsa lefatše.

134
00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:14,560
Mme ha ba tsebe hore na ba ka rekisa
thepa ya bona ya kantle jwang le hokae.

135
00:12:14,560 --> 00:12:21,120
Ho tloha ka 1871, ena esale e le
potso ea Jeremane. Le potso ea Europe.

136
00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:26,120
Nahana ka taba ea Majeremane, e hlahang hape hona joale.

137
00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:35,600
Eo ke potso e latelang eo re lokelang ho e botsa – empa ha re
e botse hobane ha re tsebe hore na Majeremane a tla etsa'ng.