WEBVTT 00:00.014 --> 00:02.048 Puo ea Stratfor: "Lilemo tse 100 tsa litlhaselo tsa US khahlanong le setsoalle sa Jeremane le Russia" 00:02.048 --> 00:04.286 Lekgotla la Chicago la Ditaba tsa Lefatshe ka bophara. 4 Hlakola 2015, Chicago, USA 00:04.286 --> 00:11.104 Lebitso la ka ke Nick Brand, mme ke Motsamaisi wa Mananeo a Kopanetsweng ho Lekgotla la Chicago la Ditaba tsa Lefatshe. 00:11.104 --> 00:13.280 Kea leboha ka ho tla. 00:13.280 --> 00:17.489 Nka rata ho nka monyetla ona ho amohela George Friedman mona Lekgotleng la Chicago. 00:17.489 --> 00:22.120 Ke nahana hore ke lekgetlo la hae la pele mona, ke a leboha ka ho ba le rona. 00:22.120 --> 00:24.560 George Friedman: Ha ho sebaka se ka dulang se le ka kgotso ka ho sa feleng. 00:24.560 --> 00:28.920 Le eona USA, ke bolela hore, rona (USA) re lula re patiloe (kapa re angoa) ke lintoa. 00:28.920 --> 00:37.240 Ke belaela hore Europe e ke ke ya kgutlela dintweng tse kgolo, empa e tla kgutlela maemong a tlwaelehileng a botho: 00:37.240 --> 00:42.640 E tla ba le dintwa tsa yona, dinako tsa yona tsa kgotso, mme e tla lahlehelwa ke maphelo a yona. 00:42.640 --> 00:48.398 Ho ke ke ha e-ba le mafu a limilione tse 100 joaloka ntoeng e fetileng, empa mohopolo oa hore Europe e 00:48.398 --> 00:51.560 ikhethile, ke nahana hore, o tla kenya letsoho ho sena. 00:51.560 --> 00:57.200 Ho tla ba le likhohlano Europe; ho se ho bile le likhohlano Yugoslavia mme jwale le Ukraine. 00:57.200 --> 01:02.880 Kamano ea Europe le United States – ha re na kamano le Europe. 01:02.880 --> 01:10.160 Re na le likamano le Romania, le Fora, empa ha ho na Europe eo US e nang le likamano le eona. 01:10.160 --> 01:21.345 Potso e tsoang ho bamameli: Na bofetohedi ba Maislamo ke tšokelo e kholo ho United States, mme na 01:21.345 --> 01:28.380 bo tla fela kapa bo tla tsoela pele ho ba teng? 01:31.409 --> 01:38.760 George Friedman: Ke bothata ho United States, empa e se tšokelo e ka etsang hore e fele. 01:38.760 --> 01:46.120 Sena se tlameha ho sebetswa ka tsela e loketseng. Re na le dithahasello tse ding tsa pholisi ya kantle ho naha. 01:46.120 --> 01:53.258 Sepheo se seholo sa leano la kantle ho naha la US lekholong la bofelo la lilemo, Ntoeng ea Pele ea Lefatše, Ntoeng ea Bobeli ea 01:53.258 --> 01:58.597 Lefatše le nakong ea Ntoa ea Mantsoe, e ne e le kamano pakeng tsa Jeremane le Russia, hobane ha 01:58.597 --> 02:01.520 li le 'moho ke tsona feela matla a ka re sokelang. 02:01.520 --> 02:06.400 Ntho ea rona ea sehlooho e ne e le ho etsa bonnete ba hore sena ha se etsahale. 02:06.400 --> 02:13.400 Haeba u Mo-Ukraine, o tla batla e mong feela ea ka o thusang, 'me ke United States. 02:13.400 --> 02:19.347 Bekeng e fetileng, kapa matsatsi a ka bang 10 a fetileng, molaodi-moholo wa mabotho a fatshe a Amerika naheng ya 02:19.347 --> 02:22.320 Europe, Molaodi-kakaretso Ben Hodges, o etetse Ukraine. 02:22.320 --> 02:28.400 O ile a phatlalatsa moo hore baeletsi ba sesole sa US ba tla fihla naheng ya Ukraine haufinyane ka molao. 02:28.400 --> 02:34.550 Haele hantle, o ile a abela bahlabani ba Ukraine limetale moo, leha melao ea sesole ea 02:34.550 --> 02:37.840 US e thibela ho abeloa ha limetale ho basele. 02:37.840 --> 02:43.941 Empa o entse jwalo hobane o ne a batla ho bontsha hore sesole sa Ukraine ke sesole sa hae. Yaba o tsamaya. 02:43.941 --> 02:50.297 Mme jwale United States e fana ka dibetsa, dikanono le disebediswa tse ding tsa sesole ho dinaha tsa 02:50.297 --> 02:53.920 Baltic – dinaha tsa Baltic, Romania, Poland le Bulgaria. 02:53.920 --> 02:57.520 Hoo ke ntlha e kgahlang haholo. 02:57.520 --> 03:03.000 Maobane, United States e phatlalalitse hore e rera ho fana ka dibetsa ho Ukraine. 03:03.000 --> 03:10.120 Seo se latotsoe, empa ba ntse ba se etsa; dibetsa di ntse di iswa. 03:10.120 --> 03:15.600 Mme mesebetsing ena kaofela, US e sebetsa kantle ho NATO. 03:15.600 --> 03:22.380 Sena ke hobane liqeto tsa NATO li tlameha ho nkuoa ka tumellano e feletseng ke litho tsohle tsa NATO. 03:24.840 --> 03:32.680 Ntlha ea taba ena kaofela ke hore US e theha lebanta la tšireletso, kapa 'cordon sanitaire', ho potoloha Russia. 03:32.680 --> 03:39.320 Mme Russia e a tseba sena. Russia e dumela hore US e ikemiseditse ho senya Federation ya Russia. 03:39.320 --> 03:44.680 Ke nahana hore ha re batle ho ba bolaea, empa re batla feela ho ba utloisa bohloko hanyenyane kapa ho ba kotsetsa. 03:44.680 --> 03:47.880 Leha ho le jwalo, jwale re kgutletse papading ya kgale. 03:47.880 --> 03:53.259 Mme ha o botsa Mo-Poland, Mo-Hungary kapa Mo-Romania, ba phela lefatsheng le fapaneng ka ho felletseng le 03:53.259 --> 03:57.920 la Majeremane, mme Majeremane a phela lefatsheng le fapaneng ka ho felletseng le la Spain. 03:57.920 --> 04:01.080 Kahoo ho na le ho se lumellane Europe. 04:01.080 --> 04:08.280 Empa ke tla le bolella hantle seo Maukraine a tla se khetha: a tla leka ho kenya US naheng ea ona. 04:08.280 --> 04:14.000 Amerika, ka lebaka la bohlokoa ba yona ba motheo, e laola maoatle ohle a lefatshe. 04:14.000 --> 04:16.560 Ha ho puso e kileng ea etsa joalo. 04:16.560 --> 04:21.760 Ka lebaka lena, re hlasela ditjhaba tsa lefatshe, mme ha ho letho leo di ka le etsang ka hona. 04:21.760 --> 04:23.920 Hoo ke ntho e ntle haholo. 04:23.920 --> 04:29.040 Ho laola maoatle le sepakapaka ke motheo oa matla a rona. 04:29.040 --> 04:34.200 Tsela e molemohali ea ho hlola sehlopha sa likepe sa sera ke ho thibela kaho ea sona. 04:34.200 --> 04:40.006 Mokhoa oo Mabrithani a ileng a etsa bonnete ba hore ha ho na matla a Europe a ka hahang sehlopha sa 04:40.006 --> 04:42.880 likepe, e bile ho etsa hore Ma-Europe a lwanane. 04:42.880 --> 04:49.240 Pholisi eo nka e khothalletsang ke eo Ronald Reagan a e sebelisitseng Iran le Iraq. 04:49.240 --> 04:55.280 O ile a tshehetsa mahlakore ka bobedi ntweng, e le hore a lwanelane, eseng rona. 04:55.280 --> 05:00.400 E ne e le ka boqhekanyetsi, e ne e le e nyarosang boitšoaro, empa e ile ea atleha. 05:00.400 --> 05:06.440 Mme ntlha ke ena: United States ha e maemong a ho hapa Eurasia kaofela. 05:06.440 --> 05:13.040 Hang ha dieta tsa rona di kgoma mobu moo, re ba palo e fokolang. 05:13.040 --> 05:18.120 Re ka hlola sesole, empa ha re na matla a ho hapa Iraq. 05:18.120 --> 05:25.240 Kgopolo feela ya hore masole a US a 130,000 a hapile naha e nang le batho ba dimilione tse 25... 05:25.240 --> 05:34.760 Tekanyo ea mapolesa ho baahi New York e kholo ho feta tekanyo ea masole a US ho baahi ba Iraq. 05:34.760 --> 05:43.478 Kahoo, ha re maemong a ho kena lipakeng ka sesole hohle, empa re maemong, pele ho tsohle, a ho tšehetsa mebuso e loanang e le hore 05:43.478 --> 05:49.714 e ka tsepamisa maikutlo ho eona – ho e tšehetsa ka lipolotiki, ka lichelete, le ka sesole, ka 05:49.714 --> 05:53.000 ho fana ka libetsa le ho romela baeletsi ba US. 05:53.000 --> 05:59.222 Mme maemong a sa tlwaelehang, jwalo ka ha re entse Japane, tjhe, Vietnam, Iraq le 05:59.222 --> 06:03.600 Afghanistan, re kena dipakeng ka ditlhaselo tse senyang. 06:03.600 --> 06:11.880 Leqheka la litlhaselo tsa pele ha le reretsoe ho hlola sera, empa ke ho se ferekanya. 06:11.880 --> 06:21.200 Re lekile seo ntoeng e 'ngoe le e 'ngoe, joalo ka Afghanistan, moo re ileng ra ferekanya Al Qaeda. 06:21.200 --> 06:28.240 Bothata boo re nang le bona, kaha re sa le banyenyane ebile re le maoatla, ke hore re ferekanya lira tsa rona ho e-na le ho re: 06:28.240 --> 06:31.923 Re sebelitse hantle, ha re ee hae jwale, ha re re: 06:31.923 --> 06:35.760 Ao, ho bile bonolo. Ha re theheng demokerasi le mona. 06:35.760 --> 06:40.080 Eo e bile motsotso oa bofokoli ba kelello ea rona o ileng oa re hlola. 06:40.080 --> 06:46.560 Ka hona, karabo ke hore US e ke ke ya kena dipakeng ka sesole hohle Eurasia. 06:46.560 --> 06:49.920 Keno-lipakeng e tlameha ho khethoa, mme e be e sa etsahaleng hangata kamoo ho ka khonehang. 06:49.920 --> 06:55.160 Ho kena lipakeng ha sesole ho rona ke taba e khethehileng, e leng qetello ea bofelo. 06:55.160 --> 06:58.640 Ha re ka ke ra romela masole a US mohatong oa pele. 06:58.640 --> 07:03.520 Empa haeba re romela masole a US, joale, jwalo ka ha re se re utlwisitse ka ho hlaka ho tswa phihlelong, 07:03.520 --> 07:08.280 Keno-lipakeng e tlameha ho lekanyetsoa 'me e se ke ea hola ho feta tekano. 07:08.280 --> 07:14.240 Re tšepa hore re utloisitse lekhetlong lena, hobane hangata ho nka nako hore bana ba ithute ka phaposing. 07:14.240 --> 07:19.240 Empa o nepile ruri, rona re le mmuso o moholo, re ke ke ra etsa jwalo (ho kena-kenana hohle). 07:19.240 --> 07:24.693 Mabrithani ha a ka a hapa India ka nako eo; ba ile ba nka feela mebuso e ikemetseng ea India eaba 07:24.693 --> 07:27.560 ba e tlohela hore e lwane e khahlanong le e 'ngoe. 07:27.560 --> 07:31.560 Mabrithani a kentse balaodi ba Mabrithani sesoleng sa India. 07:31.560 --> 07:37.538 Baroma ba boholo-holo ba ne ba sa romele masole libakeng tse hole ka ntle ho 'Muso oa Roma, empa ho 07:37.538 --> 07:40.920 e-na le hoo ba ne ba beha marena a tšehetsang Roma moo. 07:40.920 --> 07:48.084 Marena ana a ne a busa molemong oa 'Muso oa Roma linaheng tse ling, 'me a ne a ikarabella bakeng sa 07:48.084 --> 07:51.920 ho boloka khotso e tšehetsang Roma meeling ea 'muso. 07:51.920 --> 07:55.320 Sena e ne e le taba, mohlala, ka Mmuso wa Parthia. 07:55.320 --> 08:01.343 Ka hona, mebuso ya bokolone e lekang ho busa ka kotloloho dinaheng tse hapilweng e a hloleha, 08:01.343 --> 08:04.840 jwalokaha ho bile kateng ka mmuso wa Bonazi, mohlala. 08:04.840 --> 08:08.560 Hobane ha ho na motho ea nang le matla a lekaneng ho busa ka kotloloho. 08:08.560 --> 08:11.120 O tlameha ho ba bohlale ka taba ena. 08:11.120 --> 08:13.600 Leha ho le jwalo, eo ha se bothata ba rona. 08:13.600 --> 08:17.880 Ha e le hantle ho bolela hore re mmuso o moholo joalo ka ona. 08:17.880 --> 08:24.200 Leha ho le jwalo, ha re a lokela ho nahana hore re ka phutholoha, ra ya hae mme ra kgaotsa ho tshwenyeha ka letho. 08:24.200 --> 08:27.440 Re sa le feela likhaolo tse ka bang tharo bukeng. 08:27.440 --> 08:32.740 Potso e latelang ho tsoa ho bamameli: 08:38.968 --> 08:46.200 Na ke utlwisitse hantle hore tjhelete ya Europe, euro, e ke ke ya atleha ...? 08:46.200 --> 08:52.036 George Friedman: Potso e leng teng hona joale ho Marussia ke hore na ba batla hore Ukraine e be sebaka sa tshireletso pakeng tsa 08:52.036 --> 08:57.736 Russia le Bophirimela se tla dula se le bohareng bonyane – kapa Bophirimela bo tla hatela pele ho kena ka hare ho Ukraine hoo 08:57.736 --> 09:01.247 Bophirimela (NATO) bo tla ba sekgala sa dikhilomithara tse 100 feela ho tloha 09:01.247 --> 09:03.800 Stalingrad le dikhilomithara tse 500 ho tloha Moscow? 09:03.800 --> 09:07.920 Ho Russia, boemo ba Ukraine ke potso ya bophelo ba setjhaba. 09:07.920 --> 09:12.120 Mme Marussia a ke ke a tlohela taba ena feela. 09:12.120 --> 09:19.800 Bakeng sa United States, haeba Russia e tswela pele ho kena-kenana le Ukraine, re tla e emisa. 09:19.800 --> 09:26.200 Ho ile ha nkuoa mehato bakeng sa sena, 'me Molaoli-kakaretso Hodges a qosetsoa. 09:26.200 --> 09:34.929 E mabapi le ho bea masole pele naheng tsa Romania, Bulgaria, Poland le linaheng tsa Baltic – Intermarium, 09:34.929 --> 09:43.160 sebaka se pakeng tsa Leoatle le Lentsho le Leoatle la Baltic, seo Pilsudski a neng a lora ka sona. 09:43.160 --> 09:47.220 Ena ke tharollo e ratoang haholo bakeng sa USA. 09:53.880 --> 09:58.760 Mme ntho eo re se nang karabo ea eona ke potso: 09:58.760 --> 10:03.120 Jeremane e tla etsa'ng boemong bona? 10:03.120 --> 10:11.602 Ntlha ea sebele e sa tsejoeng Europe ke Majeremane. Haeba US e haha lebanta lena la tšireletso, eseng Ukraine empa ka 10:11.602 --> 10:15.880 bophirimela, tšusumetso ea Russia Ukraine e tla fokotseha. 10:15.880 --> 10:19.320 Ha re tsebe hore na boemo ba Majeremane bo tla ba joang. 10:19.320 --> 10:22.200 Jeremane e maemong a sa tloaelehang haholo. 10:22.200 --> 10:27.040 Kanselara oa mehleng oa Jeremane Gerhard Schröder ke setho sa boto ea bahlokomeli ea Gazprom. 10:27.040 --> 10:30.640 Majeremane a na le kamano e rarahaneng haholo le Marussia. 10:30.640 --> 10:33.200 Empa bona ka bo bona ha ba tsebe hore na ba etse'ng. 10:33.200 --> 10:37.400 Ba hloka ho romela thepa ea bona kantle ho naha, 'me Marussia a ka e reka. 10:37.400 --> 10:43.640 Ka lehlakoreng le leng, ba lahleheloa ke sebaka sa bona sa khoebo e lokolohileng, seo ba se hlokang ho haha lintho tse ling. 10:43.640 --> 10:49.542 Ntlha e kholo e tšoenyang USA ke hore chelete e kholo le theknoloji ea Jeremane li tla kopanngoa le 10:49.542 --> 10:53.000 lisebelisoa tsa mehloli ea Russia le basebetsi ba Russia. 10:53.000 --> 11:01.100 ho kopana ho etsa motsoako o ikhethang oo USA e bileng e leka ho o thibela ka lilemo tse lekholo. 11:03.120 --> 11:08.920 Joale re ka thibela jwang kopano ena ya Majeremane le Marussia? 11:08.920 --> 11:18.460 US e itokiselitse ho pepesa maikemisetso a yona: ke moedi o pakeng tsa Dinaha tsa Baltic le Leoatle le Letsho. 11:34.440 --> 11:38.360 Ka lehlakoreng la Russia, dintho di dula di le pepeneneng. 11:38.360 --> 11:43.560 Ho bona, ho bohlokoa haholo hore Ukraine e be naha e sa nkeng lehlakore, eseng e tšehetsang linaha tsa Bophirimela. 11:43.560 --> 11:46.280 Belarus ke taba e fapaneng mona. 11:46.280 --> 11:53.206 Hantle, mang kapa mang ea ka nkarabelang potso eo, hore na Majeremane a tla etsa'ng boemong bona, a ka mpolella hape hore 11:53.206 --> 11:56.640 na nalane ea lilemo tse 20 tse tlang e tla shebahala joang. 11:56.640 --> 12:01.120 Empa ka bomadimabe, Majeremane a tlameha ho etsa qeto ena kgafetsa. 12:01.120 --> 12:04.480 Mme ke yona bothata bo sa feleng ba Jeremane. 12:04.480 --> 12:10.880 Jeremane e matla haholo moruong, empa ka nako e tšoanang e fokolang haholo litabeng tsa lipolotiki tsa lefatše. 12:10.880 --> 12:14.560 Mme ha ba tsebe hore na ba ka rekisa thepa ya bona ya kantle jwang le hokae. 12:14.560 --> 12:21.120 Ho tloha ka 1871, ena esale e le potso ea Jeremane. Le potso ea Europe. 12:21.120 --> 12:26.120 Nahana ka taba ea Majeremane, e hlahang hape hona joale. 12:26.120 --> 12:35.600 Eo ke potso e latelang eo re lokelang ho e botsa – empa ha re e botse hobane ha re tsebe hore na Majeremane a tla etsa'ng.