1 00:00:00,014 --> 00:00:02,048 Intetho yaseStratfor: "Iminyaka eli-100 yohlaselo lwase-US kubuhlobo baseJamani naseRashiya" 2 00:00:02,048 --> 00:00:04,286 IBhunga laseChicago leMicimbi yeHlabathi. 4 Februwari 2015, eChicago, e-USA 3 00:00:04,286 --> 00:00:11,104 Igama lam ndinguNick Brand, kwaye ndinguMlawuli weeNkqubo eziManyeneyo kwiBhunga laseChicago ngemicimbi yeHlabathi. 4 00:00:11,104 --> 00:00:13,280 Enkosi ngokufika. 5 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:17,489 Ndingathanda ukuthatha eli thuba ukwamkela uGeorge Friedman apha kwiBhunga laseChicago. 6 00:00:17,489 --> 00:00:22,120 Ndicinga ukuba lixesha lakhe lokuqala apha, enkosi ngokuzimanya nathi. 7 00:00:22,120 --> 00:00:24,560 George Friedman: Akukho ndawo inokuhlalainoxolo ngonaphakade. 8 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:28,920 KwanaseMelika, ndithetha ukuthi, thina (iMelika) sihlala sikhatshwa (okanye sichatshazelwa) ziimfazwe. 9 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:37,240 Ndiyaqikelela ukuba iYurophu ayisayi kubuyela kwiimfazwe ezinkulu, kodwa iza kubuyela kwiimeko eziqhelekileyo zobuntu: 10 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:42,640 Iya kuba nemiadi yayo, amaxesha ayo oxolo, kwaye iya kulahlekelwa ngabantu bayo. 11 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:48,568 Akuzukubakho ukufa kwabantu abazizigidi ezili-100 njengemfazwe edlulileyo, kodwa ingcinga yokuba iYurophu 12 00:00:48,568 --> 00:00:51,560 ikhethekile, ndicinga ukuba, iza kuba negalelo koku. 13 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:57,200 Kuza kubakho iingxabano eYurophu; sele zikho iingxabano eYugoslavia kwaye ngoku nakwii-Ukraine. 14 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:02,880 Ubudlelwane baseYurophu ne-United States – asinabo ubudlelwane neYurophu. 15 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:10,160 Sinobudlelwane neRomania, naseFrance, kodwa akukho lilizwe laseYurophu i-US enobudlelwane nalo. 16 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:20,596 Umbuzo ovela kubaphulaphuli: Ngaba ubugrogrisi bamaSilamsi ngowona msongelo mkhulu kwi-United 17 00:01:20,596 --> 00:01:28,380 States, kwaye buza kuphela okanye buza kuqhubeka bukho? 18 00:01:31,409 --> 00:01:38,760 George Friedman: Ungengxaki kwi-United States, kodwa akayongozamiso kubukho bayo. 19 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:46,120 Oku kufuneka kujongwe ngokufanelekileyo. Sinezinye iimfuno kwezopolitiko yangaphandle. 20 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:53,665 Eyona nto yayigxilwe kuyo umgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle waseMelika kwinkulungwane edlulileyo, kwiMfazwe yokuQala neyesibini 21 00:01:53,665 --> 00:01:58,799 yeHlabathi nakwiMfazwe yoMoya, yayibudlelwane obuphakathi kweJamani neRashiya, kuba 22 00:01:58,799 --> 00:02:01,520 zikunye kuphela ziyamandla anokusisongela. 23 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:06,400 Eyona nkxalabo yethu yayikukuqinisekisa ukuba oku akwenzeki. 24 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:13,400 Ukuba ungum-Ukraine, uza kube ukhangela kuphela lowo unokukunceda, kwaye yiyo loo nto i-United States. 25 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:19,109 Kwiveki ephelileyo, okanye malunga neentsuku ezili-10 ezidlulileyo, umphathi-mkhosi ophetheyo wemikhosi yomhlaba 26 00:02:19,109 --> 00:02:22,320 yaseMelika eYurophu, uNjengele Ben Hodges, utyelele e-Ukraine. 27 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:28,400 Uye wazisa apho ukuba abacebisi bomkhosi baseMelika baza kufika ngokusesikweni e-Ukraine kungekudala. 28 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:34,551 Enyanisweni wanikezela ngemida kwabo balwi base-Ukraine apho, nangona umgaqo-nkqubo wemikhosi yase-US 29 00:02:34,551 --> 00:02:37,840 ungavumeli ukuba kwanikwe imida kubantu bangaphandle. 30 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:43,941 Kodwa wenjenjalo kuba ebefuna ukubonisa ukuba umkhosi wase-Ukraine ngowakhe. Waza wahamba. 31 00:02:43,941 --> 00:02:50,690 Kwaye ngoku i-United States ibonelela ngezixhobo, izibhamu ezinkulu kunye nezinye izixhobo zomkhosi kumazwe aseBaltic 32 00:02:50,690 --> 00:02:53,920 – amazwe aseBaltic, iRomania, iPoland kunye neBulgaria. 33 00:02:53,920 --> 00:02:57,520 Lelo licala elinomdla kakhulu. 34 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:03,000 Izolo, i-United States ibhengeze ukuba iceba ukunika iintlobo-ntlobo zezixhobo e-Ukraine. 35 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:10,120 Loo nto yaphikiswa, kodwa bayayenza, izixhobo ziyahanjiswa. 36 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:15,600 Kwaye kuyo yonke le misebenzi, i-US isebenza ingaphandle kwe-NATO. 37 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:22,380 Oku kungenxa yokuba izigqibo ze-NATO kufuneka zithathwe ngamxhelo mnye ngamalungu onke e-NATO. 38 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:32,680 Injongo yayo yonke le nto kukuba i-US imisela umda wokhuseleko, okanye ibhanti lokhuseleko, ejikeleze iRashiya. 39 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:39,320 Kwaye iRashiya iyayazi le nto. IRashiya ikholelwa ukuba i-US ijolise ekutshabalaliseni iManyano yaseRashiya. 40 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:44,680 Ndicinga ukuba asifuni kubabulala, kodwa sifuna ukubenzakalisa kancinci nje okanye ukubangela umonakalo. 41 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:47,880 Nokuba kunjani, ngoku sibuyele kumdlalo omdala. 42 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:54,827 Kwaye ukuba ubuza umPoland, umHungary okanye umRomania, baphila kwihlabathi elahluke ngokupheleleyo kwamaJamani, kwaye amaJamani 43 00:03:54,827 --> 00:03:57,920 aphila kwihlabathi elahluke ngokupheleleyo kwamaSpanish. 44 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:01,080 Ngoko ke kukho ukungavisisani eYurophu. 45 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:08,280 Kodwa ndiza kukuxelela kanye into abaza kuyikhetha ama-Ukrainian: baza kuzama ukuzisa i-US kwilizwe labo. 46 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:14,000 I-United States, ngenxa yomdla wayo osisiseko, ilawula zonke iilwandle zehlabathi. 47 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:16,560 Akukho gunya luye lwenza oko. 48 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:21,760 Ngesi sizathu, sihlasela iintlanga zehlabathi, kwaye akukho nto banokuyenza ngako. 49 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:23,920 Yinto entle kakhulu leyo. 50 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:29,040 Ukugcina ulawulo phezu kweelwandle nakwisiseko sasezulwini sisisiseko samandla ethu. 51 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:34,200 Eyona ndlela ilungileyo yokoyisa umkhosi wemikhosi yotshaba kukuthintela ukwakhiwa kwawo. 52 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:39,632 Indlela amaBritane aqinisekisa ngayo ukuba akukho lizwe laseYurophu elinokwakha umkhosi walo 53 00:04:39,632 --> 00:04:42,880 waselwandle yayikukwenza amaYurophu alwe omnye nomnye. 54 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:49,240 Umgaqo-nkqubo endinokuwuncomela ngulo owawusetyenziswa nguRonald Reagan e-Iran nase-Iraq. 55 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:55,280 Uxhase omabini la macala emfazweni, ukuze alwe omnye nomnye endaweni yethu. 56 00:04:55,280 --> 00:05:00,400 Kwakukhojkiso, kwakukugxeka ngokwasemoyeni, kodwa kwasebenza. 57 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:06,440 Kwaye yiloo nto kanye: i-United States ayikho kwimeko yokuthimba lonke elase-Eurasia. 58 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:13,040 Ngomzuzu nje amabhutsi ethu afika emhlabeni apho, sidluliwe ngenani. 59 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:18,120 Singayoyisa umkhosi, kodwa asikwazi ukuthatha i-Iraq. 60 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:25,240 Ingcinga nje yokuba amajoni aseMelika angama-130,000 athimba ilizwe elinabantu abazizigidi ezingama-25... 61 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:34,760 Umlinganiselo wamapolisa kubahlali eNew York mkhulu kunomlinganiselo wamajoni ase-US kubemi base-Iraq. 62 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:43,666 Ngoko ke, asikwazi ukungenelela ngomkhosi kuyo yonke indawo, kodwa sikwimeko yokuxhasa amandla alwa omnye nomnye ukuze akwazi 63 00:05:43,666 --> 00:05:48,939 ukuzijolisa kuwo – ukuxhasa ngokwezopolitiko, ngokwezimali, nangokomkhosi, 64 00:05:48,939 --> 00:05:53,000 ngokubonelela ngezixhobo nokuthumela abacebisi base-US. 65 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:59,231 Kwaye kwiimeko ezingaqhelekanga, njengoko senza eJapan, hayi, eVietnam, eIraq 66 00:05:59,231 --> 00:06:03,600 nase-Afghanistan, ngenelela ngohlaselo lokuphazamisa. 67 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:11,880 Iqhinga lokuhlasela kuqala alijolisanga ekoyiseni utshaba, kodwa endaweni yoko kukubaphazamisa. 68 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:21,200 Sizamile oku kuwo onke amadabi, njengase-Afghanistan, apho sayichitha khona i-Al Qaeda. 69 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:28,240 Ingxaki esinayo, kuba siseluncinci kwaye sisisidenge, kukuba siyabaphazamisa iintshaba zethu endaweni yokuba sithi: 70 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:31,923 Senze umsebenzi omhle, masiye ekhaya ngoku, masithi: 71 00:06:31,923 --> 00:06:35,760 Hawu, bekulula. Masakhe nentando yesininzi apha nathi. 72 00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:40,080 Lelo yayilixesha lobuthathaka bethu bengqondo esadlula kuso. 73 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:46,560 Ngoko ke, impendulo yeyokuba i-US ayinakungenelela ngomkhosi kuyo yonke indawo e-Eurasia. 74 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:49,920 Ukungenelela kufuneka kukhethwe kwaye kungaphindi-phindiwi kangangoko kunokwenzeka. 75 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:55,160 Ukungenelela komkhosi ngumcimbi okhethekileyo kuthi, sisigqibo sokugqibela. 76 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:58,640 Asinakuthumela amajoni aseMelika njengenyathelo lokuqala. 77 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:03,520 Kodwa ukuba sithumela amajoni aseMelika, ke, njengoko sele siqondile ngokucacileyo ngamava, 78 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:08,280 Ukungenelela kufuneka kulinganiselwe kwaye kungafikeleli kumanqanaba amakhulu kakhulu. 79 00:07:08,280 --> 00:07:14,240 Siyathemba ukuba siye sayiqonda ngeli xesha, kuba kudla ngokuthatha ixesha elide ukuba abantwana bafunde eklasini. 80 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:19,240 Kodwa unyanisile ngokupheleleyo, thina njengobukhosi asinakukwenza oko (ukuphathisa kuyo yonke indawo). 81 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:27,560 AmaBritane ayengazihlali eIndiya ngelo xesha; athatha nje amazwe ngamazwe aseIndiya waza awavumela ukuba alwe omnye nomnye. 82 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:31,560 AmaBritane afake amagosa aseBritane emkhosini waseIndiya. 83 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:37,673 AmaRoma amandulo ayengathumeli imikhosi kwiingingqi ezikude ngaphandle koBukhosi baseRoma, kodwa 84 00:07:37,673 --> 00:07:40,920 endaweni yoko ayebeka iinkosi ezixhasa iRoma apho. 85 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:47,991 Aba bakumkani babusa egameni loBukhosi baseRoma kwamanye amazwe, kwaye babephethe uxanduva 86 00:07:47,991 --> 00:07:51,920 lokugcina uxolo oluxhasa iRoma kwimida yobukhosi. 87 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:55,320 Kwakunjalo, umzekelo, ngoBukhosi baseParthia. 88 00:07:55,320 --> 00:08:01,333 Ngoko ke, iimbuso ezizama ukulawula ngokuthe ngqo kwimimandla ethinjweyo ziyasilela, 89 00:08:01,333 --> 00:08:04,840 njengoko kwakunjalo ngembuso yamaNazi, umzekelo. 90 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:08,560 Kuba akukho namnye onamandla aneleyo okubusa ngqo. 91 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:11,120 Kufuneka ube nobukrelekrele ngale nto. 92 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:13,600 Nangona kunjalo, ayisiyongxaki yethu leyo. 93 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:17,880 Enyanisweni ithetha ukuba singumbuso njalo. 94 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:24,200 Noko ke, akufuneki sicinge ukuba singaphumla, sigoduke size siyeke ukuxhalaba ngayo nayiphi na into. 95 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:27,440 Sisandul' ukufikelela kwizahluko ezithathu nje encwadini. 96 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:32,740 Umbuzo olandelayo ovela kubaphulaphuli: 97 00:08:38,968 --> 00:08:46,200 Ingaba ndikuqondile kakuhle ukuba imali yaseYurophu, i-euro, ayizukusinda ...? 98 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:52,867 George Friedman: Umbuzo ngoku okwicala lamaRashiya ngulo, ingaba bafuna i-Ukraine ibe yindawo yokukhusela phakathi kweRashiya 99 00:08:52,867 --> 00:08:58,627 neNtshona eya kuthi ubuncinci ihlale ingathathi cala – okanye ingaba iNtshona iza kungena nzulu kangangokuba 100 00:08:58,627 --> 00:09:03,800 iza kuba kumgama oziikhilomitha ezili-100 kuphela ukusuka eStalingrad nezi-500 ukusuka eMoscow? 101 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:07,920 KwiiRashiya, isimo se-Ukraine ngumbuzo wokubakho kwayo. 102 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:12,120 Kwaye amaRashiya akanakusuka nje aze ayiyeke le ngxaki. 103 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:19,800 Kwii-United States, ukuba iRashiya iqhubeka nokungenelela e-Ukraine, siya kuyinqanda iRashiya. 104 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:26,200 Kwathathwa amanyathelo ngenxa yale nto, apho uNjengele Hodges wabekwa ityala. 105 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:34,797 Kumalunga nokulungiselela ukubekwa kwamajoni kwangaphambili eRomania, eBulgaria, ePoland nakumazwe aseBaltic – 106 00:09:34,797 --> 00:09:43,160 i-Intermarium, ummandla ophakathi koLwandle oluMnyama noLwandle lwaseBaltic, awayephupha ngawo uPilsudski. 107 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:47,220 Esi sesona sisombululo sikhethwayo yi-United States. 108 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:58,760 Kwaye into esingenampendulo yayo ngumbuzo: 109 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:03,120 Uthini umbuso waseJamani kule meko? 110 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:11,410 Into engaziwayo ngokwenene eYurophu ngamaJamani. Ukuba i-US yakha le bhandi lokhuseleko, kungekhona e-Ukraine kodwa 111 00:10:11,410 --> 00:10:15,880 ngasentshona, impembelelo yaseRashiya e-Ukraine iya kuthotha. 112 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:19,320 Asazi ukuba isimo samaJamani siza kuba yintoni. 113 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:22,200 IJamani ikwimeko engaqhelekanga kakhulu. 114 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:27,040 Owayesakuba yiTshansela yaseJamani uGerhard Schröder ukwibhodi yabalondolozi yeGazprom. 115 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:30,640 AmaJamani namaRashiya banobudlelwane obuntsonkothileyo kakhulu. 116 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:33,200 Kodwa bona ngokwabo abazi ukuba mabenzeni. 117 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:37,400 Kufuneka bathumele iimpahla zabo kumazwe angaphandle, kwaye amaRashiya angazithenga. 118 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:43,640 Kwelinye icala, baphulukana nendawo yabo yorhwebo olukhululekileyo, abayidingayo ukwakha ezinye izinto. 119 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:49,914 Eyona nkxalabo iphambili yase-USA kukuba inkunzi yaseJamani nobuchwepheshe baseJamani ziya kudityaniswa nezibonelelo zizinto 120 00:10:49,914 --> 00:10:53,000 zokutya ezikrwada zaseRashiya kunye nabasebenzi baseRashiya. 121 00:10:53,000 --> 00:11:01,100 udibanise ukwenza umanyano olukhethekileyo i-USA ebizama ukuluthintela kangangeshumi leminyaka. 122 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:08,920 Ngoko ke, le ndibanisela yamaJamani namaRashiya ingathintelwa njani? 123 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:18,460 I-US ikulungele ukubeka amakhadi ayo etafileni: yindlela emiselweyo phakathi kwamaLizwe aseBaltic neLwandle elimnyama. 124 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:38,360 Kwicala laseRashiya, amakhadi ebesoloko esetafileni. 125 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:43,560 Kubo, kubaluleke kakhulu ukuba i-Ukraine ibe lilizwe elingathathi cala, hayi elixhasa iNtshona. 126 00:11:43,560 --> 00:11:46,280 I-Belarus yinto eyahlukileyo apha. 127 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:53,247 Kaloku, nabani na onokundiphendulela loo mbuzo wokuba amaJamani aza kwenza ntoni kule meko, angakwazi nokundixelela 128 00:11:53,247 --> 00:11:56,640 ukuba imbali yeminye iminyaka engama-20 iza kuba njani. 129 00:11:56,640 --> 00:12:01,120 Kodwa ngelishwa, amaJamani kufuneka enze esi sigqibo ngokuphindaphindiweyo. 130 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:04,480 Kwaye yiyo leyo ingxaki yaseJamani engapheliyo. 131 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:10,880 IGermany inamandla kakhulu kwezoqoqosho, kodwa kwangaxeshanye ibuthathaka kakhulu ngokwemeko yezopolitiko yehlabathi. 132 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:14,560 Kwaye abazi ukuba bangathengisa phi njani iimpahla zabo ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe. 133 00:12:14,560 --> 00:12:21,120 Ukusukela ngo-1871, lo ubesoloko ulibuzo laseJamani. Kwaye ilibuzo laseYurophu. 134 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:26,120 Cinga ngomba wamaJamani, ovela kwakhona ngoku. 135 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:35,600 Lelo lelenye umbuzo ekufuneka siwubuze – kodwa asikwenzi oko kuba asazi ukuba amaJamani aza kwenza ntoni.