WEBVTT 00:00.014 --> 00:02.048 Intetho yaseStratfor: "Iminyaka eli-100 yohlaselo lwase-US kubuhlobo baseJamani naseRashiya" 00:02.048 --> 00:04.286 IBhunga laseChicago leMicimbi yeHlabathi. 4 Februwari 2015, eChicago, e-USA 00:04.286 --> 00:11.104 Igama lam ndinguNick Brand, kwaye ndinguMlawuli weeNkqubo eziManyeneyo kwiBhunga laseChicago ngemicimbi yeHlabathi. 00:11.104 --> 00:13.280 Enkosi ngokufika. 00:13.280 --> 00:17.489 Ndingathanda ukuthatha eli thuba ukwamkela uGeorge Friedman apha kwiBhunga laseChicago. 00:17.489 --> 00:22.120 Ndicinga ukuba lixesha lakhe lokuqala apha, enkosi ngokuzimanya nathi. 00:22.120 --> 00:24.560 George Friedman: Akukho ndawo inokuhlalainoxolo ngonaphakade. 00:24.560 --> 00:28.920 KwanaseMelika, ndithetha ukuthi, thina (iMelika) sihlala sikhatshwa (okanye sichatshazelwa) ziimfazwe. 00:28.920 --> 00:37.240 Ndiyaqikelela ukuba iYurophu ayisayi kubuyela kwiimfazwe ezinkulu, kodwa iza kubuyela kwiimeko eziqhelekileyo zobuntu: 00:37.240 --> 00:42.640 Iya kuba nemiadi yayo, amaxesha ayo oxolo, kwaye iya kulahlekelwa ngabantu bayo. 00:42.640 --> 00:48.568 Akuzukubakho ukufa kwabantu abazizigidi ezili-100 njengemfazwe edlulileyo, kodwa ingcinga yokuba iYurophu 00:48.568 --> 00:51.560 ikhethekile, ndicinga ukuba, iza kuba negalelo koku. 00:51.560 --> 00:57.200 Kuza kubakho iingxabano eYurophu; sele zikho iingxabano eYugoslavia kwaye ngoku nakwii-Ukraine. 00:57.200 --> 01:02.880 Ubudlelwane baseYurophu ne-United States – asinabo ubudlelwane neYurophu. 01:02.880 --> 01:10.160 Sinobudlelwane neRomania, naseFrance, kodwa akukho lilizwe laseYurophu i-US enobudlelwane nalo. 01:10.160 --> 01:20.596 Umbuzo ovela kubaphulaphuli: Ngaba ubugrogrisi bamaSilamsi ngowona msongelo mkhulu kwi-United 01:20.596 --> 01:28.380 States, kwaye buza kuphela okanye buza kuqhubeka bukho? 01:31.409 --> 01:38.760 George Friedman: Ungengxaki kwi-United States, kodwa akayongozamiso kubukho bayo. 01:38.760 --> 01:46.120 Oku kufuneka kujongwe ngokufanelekileyo. Sinezinye iimfuno kwezopolitiko yangaphandle. 01:46.120 --> 01:53.665 Eyona nto yayigxilwe kuyo umgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle waseMelika kwinkulungwane edlulileyo, kwiMfazwe yokuQala neyesibini 01:53.665 --> 01:58.799 yeHlabathi nakwiMfazwe yoMoya, yayibudlelwane obuphakathi kweJamani neRashiya, kuba 01:58.799 --> 02:01.520 zikunye kuphela ziyamandla anokusisongela. 02:01.520 --> 02:06.400 Eyona nkxalabo yethu yayikukuqinisekisa ukuba oku akwenzeki. 02:06.400 --> 02:13.400 Ukuba ungum-Ukraine, uza kube ukhangela kuphela lowo unokukunceda, kwaye yiyo loo nto i-United States. 02:13.400 --> 02:19.109 Kwiveki ephelileyo, okanye malunga neentsuku ezili-10 ezidlulileyo, umphathi-mkhosi ophetheyo wemikhosi yomhlaba 02:19.109 --> 02:22.320 yaseMelika eYurophu, uNjengele Ben Hodges, utyelele e-Ukraine. 02:22.320 --> 02:28.400 Uye wazisa apho ukuba abacebisi bomkhosi baseMelika baza kufika ngokusesikweni e-Ukraine kungekudala. 02:28.400 --> 02:34.551 Enyanisweni wanikezela ngemida kwabo balwi base-Ukraine apho, nangona umgaqo-nkqubo wemikhosi yase-US 02:34.551 --> 02:37.840 ungavumeli ukuba kwanikwe imida kubantu bangaphandle. 02:37.840 --> 02:43.941 Kodwa wenjenjalo kuba ebefuna ukubonisa ukuba umkhosi wase-Ukraine ngowakhe. Waza wahamba. 02:43.941 --> 02:50.690 Kwaye ngoku i-United States ibonelela ngezixhobo, izibhamu ezinkulu kunye nezinye izixhobo zomkhosi kumazwe aseBaltic 02:50.690 --> 02:53.920 – amazwe aseBaltic, iRomania, iPoland kunye neBulgaria. 02:53.920 --> 02:57.520 Lelo licala elinomdla kakhulu. 02:57.520 --> 03:03.000 Izolo, i-United States ibhengeze ukuba iceba ukunika iintlobo-ntlobo zezixhobo e-Ukraine. 03:03.000 --> 03:10.120 Loo nto yaphikiswa, kodwa bayayenza, izixhobo ziyahanjiswa. 03:10.120 --> 03:15.600 Kwaye kuyo yonke le misebenzi, i-US isebenza ingaphandle kwe-NATO. 03:15.600 --> 03:22.380 Oku kungenxa yokuba izigqibo ze-NATO kufuneka zithathwe ngamxhelo mnye ngamalungu onke e-NATO. 03:24.840 --> 03:32.680 Injongo yayo yonke le nto kukuba i-US imisela umda wokhuseleko, okanye ibhanti lokhuseleko, ejikeleze iRashiya. 03:32.680 --> 03:39.320 Kwaye iRashiya iyayazi le nto. IRashiya ikholelwa ukuba i-US ijolise ekutshabalaliseni iManyano yaseRashiya. 03:39.320 --> 03:44.680 Ndicinga ukuba asifuni kubabulala, kodwa sifuna ukubenzakalisa kancinci nje okanye ukubangela umonakalo. 03:44.680 --> 03:47.880 Nokuba kunjani, ngoku sibuyele kumdlalo omdala. 03:47.880 --> 03:54.827 Kwaye ukuba ubuza umPoland, umHungary okanye umRomania, baphila kwihlabathi elahluke ngokupheleleyo kwamaJamani, kwaye amaJamani 03:54.827 --> 03:57.920 aphila kwihlabathi elahluke ngokupheleleyo kwamaSpanish. 03:57.920 --> 04:01.080 Ngoko ke kukho ukungavisisani eYurophu. 04:01.080 --> 04:08.280 Kodwa ndiza kukuxelela kanye into abaza kuyikhetha ama-Ukrainian: baza kuzama ukuzisa i-US kwilizwe labo. 04:08.280 --> 04:14.000 I-United States, ngenxa yomdla wayo osisiseko, ilawula zonke iilwandle zehlabathi. 04:14.000 --> 04:16.560 Akukho gunya luye lwenza oko. 04:16.560 --> 04:21.760 Ngesi sizathu, sihlasela iintlanga zehlabathi, kwaye akukho nto banokuyenza ngako. 04:21.760 --> 04:23.920 Yinto entle kakhulu leyo. 04:23.920 --> 04:29.040 Ukugcina ulawulo phezu kweelwandle nakwisiseko sasezulwini sisisiseko samandla ethu. 04:29.040 --> 04:34.200 Eyona ndlela ilungileyo yokoyisa umkhosi wemikhosi yotshaba kukuthintela ukwakhiwa kwawo. 04:34.200 --> 04:39.632 Indlela amaBritane aqinisekisa ngayo ukuba akukho lizwe laseYurophu elinokwakha umkhosi walo 04:39.632 --> 04:42.880 waselwandle yayikukwenza amaYurophu alwe omnye nomnye. 04:42.880 --> 04:49.240 Umgaqo-nkqubo endinokuwuncomela ngulo owawusetyenziswa nguRonald Reagan e-Iran nase-Iraq. 04:49.240 --> 04:55.280 Uxhase omabini la macala emfazweni, ukuze alwe omnye nomnye endaweni yethu. 04:55.280 --> 05:00.400 Kwakukhojkiso, kwakukugxeka ngokwasemoyeni, kodwa kwasebenza. 05:00.400 --> 05:06.440 Kwaye yiloo nto kanye: i-United States ayikho kwimeko yokuthimba lonke elase-Eurasia. 05:06.440 --> 05:13.040 Ngomzuzu nje amabhutsi ethu afika emhlabeni apho, sidluliwe ngenani. 05:13.040 --> 05:18.120 Singayoyisa umkhosi, kodwa asikwazi ukuthatha i-Iraq. 05:18.120 --> 05:25.240 Ingcinga nje yokuba amajoni aseMelika angama-130,000 athimba ilizwe elinabantu abazizigidi ezingama-25... 05:25.240 --> 05:34.760 Umlinganiselo wamapolisa kubahlali eNew York mkhulu kunomlinganiselo wamajoni ase-US kubemi base-Iraq. 05:34.760 --> 05:43.666 Ngoko ke, asikwazi ukungenelela ngomkhosi kuyo yonke indawo, kodwa sikwimeko yokuxhasa amandla alwa omnye nomnye ukuze akwazi 05:43.666 --> 05:48.939 ukuzijolisa kuwo – ukuxhasa ngokwezopolitiko, ngokwezimali, nangokomkhosi, 05:48.939 --> 05:53.000 ngokubonelela ngezixhobo nokuthumela abacebisi base-US. 05:53.000 --> 05:59.231 Kwaye kwiimeko ezingaqhelekanga, njengoko senza eJapan, hayi, eVietnam, eIraq 05:59.231 --> 06:03.600 nase-Afghanistan, ngenelela ngohlaselo lokuphazamisa. 06:03.600 --> 06:11.880 Iqhinga lokuhlasela kuqala alijolisanga ekoyiseni utshaba, kodwa endaweni yoko kukubaphazamisa. 06:11.880 --> 06:21.200 Sizamile oku kuwo onke amadabi, njengase-Afghanistan, apho sayichitha khona i-Al Qaeda. 06:21.200 --> 06:28.240 Ingxaki esinayo, kuba siseluncinci kwaye sisisidenge, kukuba siyabaphazamisa iintshaba zethu endaweni yokuba sithi: 06:28.240 --> 06:31.923 Senze umsebenzi omhle, masiye ekhaya ngoku, masithi: 06:31.923 --> 06:35.760 Hawu, bekulula. Masakhe nentando yesininzi apha nathi. 06:35.760 --> 06:40.080 Lelo yayilixesha lobuthathaka bethu bengqondo esadlula kuso. 06:40.080 --> 06:46.560 Ngoko ke, impendulo yeyokuba i-US ayinakungenelela ngomkhosi kuyo yonke indawo e-Eurasia. 06:46.560 --> 06:49.920 Ukungenelela kufuneka kukhethwe kwaye kungaphindi-phindiwi kangangoko kunokwenzeka. 06:49.920 --> 06:55.160 Ukungenelela komkhosi ngumcimbi okhethekileyo kuthi, sisigqibo sokugqibela. 06:55.160 --> 06:58.640 Asinakuthumela amajoni aseMelika njengenyathelo lokuqala. 06:58.640 --> 07:03.520 Kodwa ukuba sithumela amajoni aseMelika, ke, njengoko sele siqondile ngokucacileyo ngamava, 07:03.520 --> 07:08.280 Ukungenelela kufuneka kulinganiselwe kwaye kungafikeleli kumanqanaba amakhulu kakhulu. 07:08.280 --> 07:14.240 Siyathemba ukuba siye sayiqonda ngeli xesha, kuba kudla ngokuthatha ixesha elide ukuba abantwana bafunde eklasini. 07:14.240 --> 07:19.240 Kodwa unyanisile ngokupheleleyo, thina njengobukhosi asinakukwenza oko (ukuphathisa kuyo yonke indawo). 07:19.240 --> 07:27.560 AmaBritane ayengazihlali eIndiya ngelo xesha; athatha nje amazwe ngamazwe aseIndiya waza awavumela ukuba alwe omnye nomnye. 07:27.560 --> 07:31.560 AmaBritane afake amagosa aseBritane emkhosini waseIndiya. 07:31.560 --> 07:37.673 AmaRoma amandulo ayengathumeli imikhosi kwiingingqi ezikude ngaphandle koBukhosi baseRoma, kodwa 07:37.673 --> 07:40.920 endaweni yoko ayebeka iinkosi ezixhasa iRoma apho. 07:40.920 --> 07:47.991 Aba bakumkani babusa egameni loBukhosi baseRoma kwamanye amazwe, kwaye babephethe uxanduva 07:47.991 --> 07:51.920 lokugcina uxolo oluxhasa iRoma kwimida yobukhosi. 07:51.920 --> 07:55.320 Kwakunjalo, umzekelo, ngoBukhosi baseParthia. 07:55.320 --> 08:01.333 Ngoko ke, iimbuso ezizama ukulawula ngokuthe ngqo kwimimandla ethinjweyo ziyasilela, 08:01.333 --> 08:04.840 njengoko kwakunjalo ngembuso yamaNazi, umzekelo. 08:04.840 --> 08:08.560 Kuba akukho namnye onamandla aneleyo okubusa ngqo. 08:08.560 --> 08:11.120 Kufuneka ube nobukrelekrele ngale nto. 08:11.120 --> 08:13.600 Nangona kunjalo, ayisiyongxaki yethu leyo. 08:13.600 --> 08:17.880 Enyanisweni ithetha ukuba singumbuso njalo. 08:17.880 --> 08:24.200 Noko ke, akufuneki sicinge ukuba singaphumla, sigoduke size siyeke ukuxhalaba ngayo nayiphi na into. 08:24.200 --> 08:27.440 Sisandul' ukufikelela kwizahluko ezithathu nje encwadini. 08:27.440 --> 08:32.740 Umbuzo olandelayo ovela kubaphulaphuli: 08:38.968 --> 08:46.200 Ingaba ndikuqondile kakuhle ukuba imali yaseYurophu, i-euro, ayizukusinda ...? 08:46.200 --> 08:52.867 George Friedman: Umbuzo ngoku okwicala lamaRashiya ngulo, ingaba bafuna i-Ukraine ibe yindawo yokukhusela phakathi kweRashiya 08:52.867 --> 08:58.627 neNtshona eya kuthi ubuncinci ihlale ingathathi cala – okanye ingaba iNtshona iza kungena nzulu kangangokuba 08:58.627 --> 09:03.800 iza kuba kumgama oziikhilomitha ezili-100 kuphela ukusuka eStalingrad nezi-500 ukusuka eMoscow? 09:03.800 --> 09:07.920 KwiiRashiya, isimo se-Ukraine ngumbuzo wokubakho kwayo. 09:07.920 --> 09:12.120 Kwaye amaRashiya akanakusuka nje aze ayiyeke le ngxaki. 09:12.120 --> 09:19.800 Kwii-United States, ukuba iRashiya iqhubeka nokungenelela e-Ukraine, siya kuyinqanda iRashiya. 09:19.800 --> 09:26.200 Kwathathwa amanyathelo ngenxa yale nto, apho uNjengele Hodges wabekwa ityala. 09:26.200 --> 09:34.797 Kumalunga nokulungiselela ukubekwa kwamajoni kwangaphambili eRomania, eBulgaria, ePoland nakumazwe aseBaltic – 09:34.797 --> 09:43.160 i-Intermarium, ummandla ophakathi koLwandle oluMnyama noLwandle lwaseBaltic, awayephupha ngawo uPilsudski. 09:43.160 --> 09:47.220 Esi sesona sisombululo sikhethwayo yi-United States. 09:53.880 --> 09:58.760 Kwaye into esingenampendulo yayo ngumbuzo: 09:58.760 --> 10:03.120 Uthini umbuso waseJamani kule meko? 10:03.120 --> 10:11.410 Into engaziwayo ngokwenene eYurophu ngamaJamani. Ukuba i-US yakha le bhandi lokhuseleko, kungekhona e-Ukraine kodwa 10:11.410 --> 10:15.880 ngasentshona, impembelelo yaseRashiya e-Ukraine iya kuthotha. 10:15.880 --> 10:19.320 Asazi ukuba isimo samaJamani siza kuba yintoni. 10:19.320 --> 10:22.200 IJamani ikwimeko engaqhelekanga kakhulu. 10:22.200 --> 10:27.040 Owayesakuba yiTshansela yaseJamani uGerhard Schröder ukwibhodi yabalondolozi yeGazprom. 10:27.040 --> 10:30.640 AmaJamani namaRashiya banobudlelwane obuntsonkothileyo kakhulu. 10:30.640 --> 10:33.200 Kodwa bona ngokwabo abazi ukuba mabenzeni. 10:33.200 --> 10:37.400 Kufuneka bathumele iimpahla zabo kumazwe angaphandle, kwaye amaRashiya angazithenga. 10:37.400 --> 10:43.640 Kwelinye icala, baphulukana nendawo yabo yorhwebo olukhululekileyo, abayidingayo ukwakha ezinye izinto. 10:43.640 --> 10:49.914 Eyona nkxalabo iphambili yase-USA kukuba inkunzi yaseJamani nobuchwepheshe baseJamani ziya kudityaniswa nezibonelelo zizinto 10:49.914 --> 10:53.000 zokutya ezikrwada zaseRashiya kunye nabasebenzi baseRashiya. 10:53.000 --> 11:01.100 udibanise ukwenza umanyano olukhethekileyo i-USA ebizama ukuluthintela kangangeshumi leminyaka. 11:03.120 --> 11:08.920 Ngoko ke, le ndibanisela yamaJamani namaRashiya ingathintelwa njani? 11:08.920 --> 11:18.460 I-US ikulungele ukubeka amakhadi ayo etafileni: yindlela emiselweyo phakathi kwamaLizwe aseBaltic neLwandle elimnyama. 11:34.440 --> 11:38.360 Kwicala laseRashiya, amakhadi ebesoloko esetafileni. 11:38.360 --> 11:43.560 Kubo, kubaluleke kakhulu ukuba i-Ukraine ibe lilizwe elingathathi cala, hayi elixhasa iNtshona. 11:43.560 --> 11:46.280 I-Belarus yinto eyahlukileyo apha. 11:46.280 --> 11:53.247 Kaloku, nabani na onokundiphendulela loo mbuzo wokuba amaJamani aza kwenza ntoni kule meko, angakwazi nokundixelela 11:53.247 --> 11:56.640 ukuba imbali yeminye iminyaka engama-20 iza kuba njani. 11:56.640 --> 12:01.120 Kodwa ngelishwa, amaJamani kufuneka enze esi sigqibo ngokuphindaphindiweyo. 12:01.120 --> 12:04.480 Kwaye yiyo leyo ingxaki yaseJamani engapheliyo. 12:04.480 --> 12:10.880 IGermany inamandla kakhulu kwezoqoqosho, kodwa kwangaxeshanye ibuthathaka kakhulu ngokwemeko yezopolitiko yehlabathi. 12:10.880 --> 12:14.560 Kwaye abazi ukuba bangathengisa phi njani iimpahla zabo ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe. 12:14.560 --> 12:21.120 Ukusukela ngo-1871, lo ubesoloko ulibuzo laseJamani. Kwaye ilibuzo laseYurophu. 12:21.120 --> 12:26.120 Cinga ngomba wamaJamani, ovela kwakhona ngoku. 12:26.120 --> 12:35.600 Lelo lelenye umbuzo ekufuneka siwubuze – kodwa asikwenzi oko kuba asazi ukuba amaJamani aza kwenza ntoni.