WEBVTT

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Inkulumo yeStratfor: "Iminyaka engu-100 yokuhlaselwa
kobungane phakathi kweJalimane neRussia yi-United States"

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I-Chicago Council on Global
Affairs. 4 Februwari 2015, eChicago, e-USA

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Igama lami nginguNick Brand, futhi ngiyiMqondisi
Wezinhlelo Ezihlangene eChicago Council on Global Affairs.

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Ngiyabonga ngokufika.

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Ngithanda ukuthatha leli thuba ukwamukela
uGeorge Friedman lapha eChicago Council.

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Ngicabanga ukuthi lokhu kuwukuba kwakhe
lapha okokuqala, ngiyabonga ngokuba nathi.

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George Friedman: Akukho ndawo engahlala ithule unomphela.

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Ngisho nase-USA, sithi thina (i-USA)
sihlala sihlanganyelwa (noma sithinteka) izimpi.

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Ngisola ukuthi iYurophu ngeke ibuyele ezimpini
ezinkulu, kodwa izobuyela ezimweni ezijwayelekile zobuntu:

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Izoba nezimpi zayo, nezikhathi zayo
zokuthula, futhi izolahlekelwa izimpilo zayo.

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Akusoze kube nokufa kwabantu abayizigidi eziyikhulu
njengaseMpini Yezwe yokugcina, kodwa umqondo wokuthi

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iYurophu iyihlukile, ngicabanga, uzoba negalelo kulokhu.

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Kuzoba nezingxabano eYurophu; sekube
nezingxabano eJugoslaviya futhi manje nase-Ukraine.

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Ubudlelwano baseYurophu ne-United
States – asinabo ubudlelwano neYurophu.

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Sinobudlelwano neRomania, neFrance, kodwa
ayikho iYurophu enobudlelwano ne-United States.

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Umbuzo ovela kubabukeli: Ingabe
ubuphishekari bamaSulumane yinsongo enkulu e-United

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States, futhi buzophela noma buzoqhubeka bukhona?

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George Friedman: Ungenkinga e-United
States, kodwa akayingozi ekubeni khona kwayo.

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Lokhu kumele kubhekwane nakho ngendlela efanele.
Sinezithakazelo zethu ezihlukene kwezepolitiki yangaphandle.

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Inhloso enkulu yenqubomgomo yangaphandle yase-United States
eminyakeni eyikhulu edlule, empini yokuqala yezwe, empini

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yesibili yezwe kanye naseMpi Ebandayo,
kwakuyubudlelwano phakathi kweJalimane neRussia, ngoba

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ndawonye ziyodwa kuphela amandla angasongela thina.

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Inkathazo yethu enkulu
kwakuwukuqinisekisa ukuthi lokhu akwenzeki.

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Uma ungum-Ukraine, uzobe usesha lowo
kuphela ongakusiza, okuyi-United States.

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Ngeviki eledlule, noma cishe izinsuku eziyishumi
ezedlule, umyalo omkhulu wamabutho asemhlabeni aseMelika

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eYurophu, uJenerali Ben Hodges, wavakashela e-Ukraine.

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Wamemezela lapho ukuthi abeluleki bezempi
baseMelika bazofika ngokusemthethweni e-Ukraine kungekudala.

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Wahlinzeka ngempela ngemiklomelo kubalwi base-Ukraine
lapho, nakuba iphrothokholi yezempi yase-US ivimbela

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ukunikezwa kwemiklomelo kwabantu abangewona abemi baseMelika.

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Kodwa wenza kanjalo ngoba wayefuna ukukhombisa ukuthi
ibutho lase-Ukraine liyibutho lakhe. Wabe esehamba.

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Manje i-United States inikeza izikhali, izibhamu
ezisindayo neminye imishini yezempi emazweni

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aseBaltic – amazwe aseBaltic, iRomania, iPoland neBulgaria.

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Lena iphuzu elithakazelisa kakhulu.

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Izolo, i-United States imemezele ukuthi
ihlela ukuhlinzeka ngezikhali e-Ukraine.

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Lokho kwaphikwa, kodwa bayakwenza, izikhali ziyahanjiswa.

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Futhi kuyo yonke le misebenzi, i-US isebenza ngaphandle kwe-NATO.

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Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi izinqumo ze-NATO kumele zithathwe
ngokuvumelana ngokuphelele yilona lonke amalungu e-NATO.

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Inhloso yazo zonke lezi zinto wukuthi i-US isungula
umkhawulo wezempilo, ibhande lokuphepha, ezungeze iRussia.

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Futhi iRussia iyakwazi lokhu. IRussia ikholelwa ukuthi
i-United States ihlose ukubhubhisa iFederation yaseRussia.

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Ngicabanga ukuthi asifuni ukubabulala, kodwa sifuna
nje ukubalimaza kancane noma ukubangela umonakalo.

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Noma kunjalo, manje sesibuyele emdlalweni wakudala.

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Futhi uma ubuza iPoloni, iHungary noma iRomania, baphila
emhlabeni ohlukile ngokuphelele kwamaJalimane, kanti

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amaJalimane aphila emhlabeni ohlukile ngokuphelele kwamaSpain.

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Ngakho-ke kunokungavumelani eYurophu.

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Kodwa ngizokutshela ngokunembile ukuthi ama-Ukraine
azokhetha ini: azokuzama ukuletha i-US ezweni labo.

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I-United States, ngenxa yentshisekelo yayo
eyisisekelo, ilawula zonke izilwandle zomhlaba.

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Akukho magunya okwake kwenze lokho.

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Ngenxa yalesi sizathu, siyangenela izizwe
zomhlaba, futhi abakwazi ukwenza lutho ngalokho.

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Lokho kuwumqondo omuhle kakhulu.

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Ukugcina ukulawula olwandle
nasemkhathini yisisekelo samandla ethu.

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Indlela engcono kakhulu yokunqoba umkhumbi
wempi wositha wukuvimbela ukuthi wakhiwe.

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Indlela amaBrithani aqinisekisa ngayo ukuthi akukho
mandla aseYurophu angakha umkhumbi wabo wempi

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kwakuwukubangela amaYurophu ukuthi alwe omunye nomunye.

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Inqubomgomo engiyincoma yileyo uRonald
Reagan ayisebenzisile e-Iran nase-Iraq.

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Wasekela izinhlangothi zombili empini, ukuze
zilwe omunye nomunye kunokuba zilwe nathi.

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Kwakuyicalucalulo, kwakubi ngokomoya, kodwa kwasebenza.

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Futhi yilokho okubalulekile: i-United
States ayikho esimweni sokubusa yonke i-Eurasia.

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Lapho izicathulo zethu zithinta
umhlaba lapho, sinqotshwa ngenani labantu.

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Singanqoba ibutho, kodwa asikwazi ukuthatha i-Iraq.

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Umbono nje wokuthi amasosha aseMelika angu-130,000
abusa izwe elinabantu abayizigidi ezingama-25...

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Isilinganiso samaphoyisa kubahlali eNew York sikhulu
kunesilinganiso samasosha aseMelika kubantu base-Iraq.

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Ngakho-ke, asikwazi ukungenelela ngamabutho ezempi yonke indawo,
kodwa okokuqala nje singakwazi ukusekela amandla alwa omunye

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nomunye ukuze agxile kuwo – ngokuwasekela
kwezombusazwe, kwezezimali, nakwezempi,

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ngokuhlinzeka ngezikhali nokuthumela abeluleki base-US.

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Futhi ezimeni ezingavamile, njengoba senza
eJapane, cha, eVietnam, e-Iraq

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nase-Afghanistan, singena phakathi ngokuhlasela okubhidliza.

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Iqhinga lokuhlasela kuqala alihloselwe
ukunqoba isitha, kodwa ukubaphazamisa ibhalansi yaso.

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Sizamile lokho kuzo zonke izimpi,
njengase-Afghanistan, lapho sagwaza khona i-Al Qaeda.

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Inkinga esinayo, njengoba sisencane futhi singahlakaniphile,
wukuthi siphazamisa izitha zethu esikhundleni sokuthi sithi:

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Senze umsebenzi omuhle, masiye ekhaya manje, masithi:

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Hawu, bekulula kakhulu. Masakhe nalawo idemokhrasi.

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Lowo kwakuyisikhathi sobuthakathaka bethu bengqondo esasihlula.

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Ngakho-ke, impendulo ithi i-United States ayikwazi
ukungenelela ngokwezempi yonke indawo e-Eurasia.

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Ukungenelela kumele kube nokukhetha
futhi kungavamile ngangokunokwenzeka.

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Ukungenelela kwezempi kuyicala
elikhethekile kithi, kuyindlela yokugcina.

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Asikwazi ukuthumela amasosha aseMelika njengesinyathelo sokuqala.

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Kodwa uma sithumela amasosha aseMelika, khona-ke,
njengoba sesivele siqonda kahle ngokuhlangenwe nakho,

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Ukungenelela kumele kube nokulinganiselwa
futhi kungafinyeleli ezingeni elikhulu kakhulu.

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Sithemba ukuthi manje sesiqonda, ngoba kuvame
ukuthatha isikhathi ukuthi izingane zifunde ekilasini.

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Kodwa unembile ngokuphelele, thina njengombuso
asikwazi ukwenza lokho (ukungenelela yonke indawo).

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AmaBrithani abebengahlali eNdiya ngaleso
sikhathi; bathatha izifundazwe ngazinye

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zaseNdiya baze bavumela ukuthi zilwe omunye nomunye.

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AmaBrithani afake izikhulu zaseBrithani ebuthweni laseNdiya.

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AmaRoma asendulo awathumelanga amasosha
ezindaweni ezikude ngaphandle kombuso wamaRoma,

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kodwa asebenzisa ababusi abasekela amaRoma.

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Laba bamakhosi babusa egameni loMbuso
wamaRoma kwamanye amazwe, futhi babephethe ukugcina

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ukuthula okusekela iRoma emingceleni yombuso.

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Lokhu kwakunjalo, isibonelo, ngeMbuso wamaParthia.

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Ngakho-ke, amabhayisikobho azama ukubusa ngqo ezindaweni ezibanjwe
awahluleki, njengokwenzeka nebhayisikobho lamaNazi, isibonelo.

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Ngoba akekho onamandla aneleyo okubusa ngqo.

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Kufanele ube nobuhlakani ngalokhu.

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Noma kunjalo, akuyona inkinga yethu.

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Empeleni kusho ukuthi siyimbuso ngempela.

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Nokho, akufanele sicabange ukuthi singaphumula,
siye ekhaya bese siyeka ukukhathazeka nganoma yini.

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Sesifike ezahlukweni ezintathu kuphela encwadini.

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Umbuzo olandelayo ovela kubabukeli:

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Ingabe ngikuqondile kahle ukuthi imali
yaseYurophu, i-euro, ngeke iphile ...?

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George Friedman: Umbuzo manje ophakathi kwamaRashiya ukuthi ngabe
bafuna i-Ukraine ibe yindawo yokuvikela phakathi kweRussia

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neNtshonalanga ezohlala ingathathi hlangothi okungenani – noma
iNtshonalanga izophusha kangaka e-Ukraine kangangokuba

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iNtshonalanga (i-NATO) izobe isele amakhilomitha angu-100
ukusuka eStalingrad namakhilomitha angu-500 ukusuka eMoscow?

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KwaseRussia, isimo se-Ukraine siyindaba yokuba khona kwayo.

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Futhi amaRashiya angeke bakwazi nje ukuhamba bayeke le ndaba.

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E-United States, uma iRussia iqhubeka
nokungenelela e-Ukraine, sizoyinqanda iRussia.

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Kwathathwa izinyathelo ngaleli nhloso,
uJenali Hodges wabekwa icala ngalokho.

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Kuyindaba yokubekwa kwangaphambilini kwamabutho eRomania,
eBulgaria, ePoland nasezifundazweni zaseBaltic –

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i-Intermarium, indawo phakathi kweLwandle
Elimnyama neLwandle iBaltic, eyayiphupho likaPilsudski.

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Lena yisixazululo esikhethwayo e-USA.

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Futhi into esingenayo impendulo kuyo yilombuzo:

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IJalimane izokwenza ukuthini kulesi simo?

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Into yangempela engaziwa eYurophu ngabantu baseJalimane.
Uma i-US yakha le bhande lokuphepha, hhayi e-Ukraine

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kodwa entshonalanga, ithonya laseRussia e-Ukraine lizokwehla.

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Asazi ukuthi isikhundla saseJalimane sizoba yini.

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IJalimane isesimweni esiyingqayizivele kakhulu.

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OwayenguNgqongqoshe Wezomnotho waseJalimane,
uGerhard Schröder, usebhodini lokwengamela leGazprom.

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AmaJalimane anobudlelwano obuyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu namaRashiya.

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Kodwa bona uqobo abazi ukuthi benzeni.

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Kudingeka bathumele impahla yabo
phesheya, futhi amaRashiya angayithenga.

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Ngakolunye uhlangothi, baphuthelwa isifunda sabo sokuhweba
ngokukhululekile, abasidingayo ukuze bakhe ezinye izinto.

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Inkathazo enkulu yase-United States ukuthi ikapitali
yaseJalimane nobuchwepheshe baseJalimane kuzohlanganiswa

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nezinsiza zokuvuna zaseRussia nabasebenzi baseRussia.

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hlanganisa ukuze kwakheke inhlanganisela
eyingqayizivele i-USA ebizame ukuyivimbela iminyaka eyikhulu.

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Ngakho-ke, le ngxube yaseJalimane
neyaseRussia ingavinjwa kanjani?

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I-US isilungele ukubeka amakhadi ayo etafuleni: yilona
umugqa ophakathi kwezizwe zaseBaltic naseLwandle Olumnyama.

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Ngakolunye uhlangothi lwaseRussia, amakhadi ahlale ethebuleni.

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Kubo, kubalulekile ukuthi i-Ukraine ibe izwe
elingakhethi uhlangothi, hhayi elisekela iNtshonalanga.

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I-Belarus iyindaba ehlukile lapha.

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Yebo, noma ubani ongakwazi ukuphendula lo mbuzo kimi
wokuthi amaJalimane azokwenzani kulesi simo, angangitshela

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nokuthi umlando weminyaka engu-20 ezayo uzobukeka kanjani.

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Kodwa ngeshwa, amaJalimane kumele enze lesi sinqumo kaningi.

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Futhi yilona inkinga yaseJalimane engapheli.

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IJalimane linamandla kakhulu kwezomnotho, kodwa
ngasikhathi sinye libuthakathaka kakhulu kwezepolitiki yomhlaba.

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Futhi abakaze bazi ukuthi bangazidayisa kanjani
nokuthi kuphi izinto abazithumela kwamanye amazwe.

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Kusukela ngo-1871, lokhu kube njalo
umbuzo waseJalimane. Futhi umbuzo waseYurophu.

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Cabanga ngombuzo wamaJalimane, osuvela futhi manje.

12:26.120 --> 12:35.600
Lena yilona mbuzo olandelayo okumele siwubuze – kodwa
asikwenzeki ngoba asazi ukuthi amaJalimane azokwenzani.