WEBVTT 00:01.153 --> 00:06.259 Canjin yanayi – mutane tsakanin ilimi da imani 00:06.259 --> 00:13.440 Shin yanayi yana da sauƙin tasiri kamar yadda 'yan siyasa da kafofin watsa labarai ke ci gaba da faɗa mana? 00:13.440 --> 00:19.784 Ga mutane da yawa, ra'ayoyin da masu yin lobi masu dacewa suka riga suka kafa sun wadatar gaba ɗaya, yayin da 00:19.784 --> 00:25.613 wasu ke ganin batun ya yi matuƙar rikitarwa har ba za su iya tattauna shi sosai da kansu ba. 00:25.613 --> 00:32.681 Marubucin, Farfesa Dr. Werner Kirstein, ƙwararren masanin yanayi da masanin fiziks, ya shafe sama da shekaru 00:32.681 --> 00:39.532 40 yana nazarin tsarin kimiyya na canje-canjen yanayi na yankuna da na duniya baki ɗaya. 00:39.532 --> 00:46.141 A cikin sabon littafinsa mai taken "SAUYIN Yanayi – Gaskiya, Kuskure ko Karya? Mutane tsakanin Ilimi da Imani," ya 00:46.141 --> 00:53.330 bayyana gaskiyar abubuwan da suka shafi "mahimman batutuwa" na sauyin yanayi ta yadda kowa zai iya fahimta. 00:53.330 --> 01:03.436 Musamman, yana nuna cewa: Canjin yanayi gaskiya ne, canjin yanayi kuskure ne, kuma canjin yanayi ƙarya ne. 01:03.436 --> 01:08.969 Duk da waɗannan ƙaryatattun bayanai da suka bayyana, kowanne daga cikin bayanan uku yana daidai. 01:08.969 --> 01:15.172 Ta yaya hakan zai yiwu? A cikin littafinsa mai sauƙin karantawa, wanda ke da shafuka kusan 200, Werner Kirstein 01:15.172 --> 01:19.153 ya amsa waɗannan tambayoyi da sauran tambayoyi da dama. 01:19.153 --> 01:23.773 Wasu daga cikin waɗannan wuraren da ake kira "hot spots" an haskaka su a cikin wannan shirin dokumentari. 01:23.773 --> 01:31.781 Don haka, an ɗauko wasu ɓangarori kai tsaye daga littafin Werner Kirstein ko kuma an sake su a taƙaice da kalmominmu. 01:31.781 --> 01:35.454 Canjin yanayi gaskiya ne 01:35.454 --> 01:44.582 Yanayin Duniya koyaushe yana canzawa, wanda ke nufin cewa canjin yanayi gaskiya ne – musamman canjin yanayi na halitta! 01:44.582 --> 01:51.979 Alamomin sauyin yanayi da canje-canjen yanayi an dade ana nazarinsu ta masana yanayi da masana ilimin kasa, kuma 01:51.979 --> 01:59.980 an rubuta su, ciki har da ta hanyar kimanta zoben itace, nazarin daddawa da sauye-sauyen yanayin saman ƙasa. 01:59.980 --> 02:07.886 Tare da sauyin lokutan zafi da sanyi, matsakaicin CO2 a cikin yanayi ma ya canza, kodayake da jinkiri. 02:07.886 --> 02:16.611 Da farko, zazzabi koyaushe ya tashi, sai daga baya sosai aka samu karuwar matsin CO2. Bambancin zazzabi ya kai har zuwa 10 02:16.611 --> 02:25.202 °C. Misali, a yau zazzabi ya kasance kusan digiri 10 kasa fiye da lokacin dumamar da aka samu a tarihin Duniya! 02:25.202 --> 02:33.226 Matakan CO2 ma sau da yawa sun kasance masu yawa sosai fiye da yadda suke a yau. Canjin zafin jiki koyaushe ya samo asali ne 02:33.226 --> 02:39.374 daga dalilai na halitta, kamar ayyukan rana da sigogin zagayowar Duniya; mutane ba su taɓa zama 02:39.374 --> 02:43.815 masu alhakin sauyin yanayi ba ta kowace hanya. 02:43.815 --> 02:47.995 Canjin yanayi ƙarya ne 02:47.995 --> 02:56.098 A shekarar 1986, Kungiyar Kimiyyar Jiki ta Jamus ta fitar da gargadi game da "barazanar bala'in sauyin yanayi na duniya mai 02:56.098 --> 03:01.133 zuwa" bisa ga ƙididdiga marasa inganci, wato lanƙwasar Mauna Loa. 03:01.133 --> 03:07.584 Kurvun Mauna Loa yana nuna alaƙa bayyanannu* tsakanin ƙaruwa a zafin jiki da ƙaruwa a CO2. 03:07.584 --> 03:15.964 Daga baya an yi ikirarin cewa yanayin zafin Duniya ya dogara ne da yawan wasu iskar gurbatattun gas, kamar CO₂, a cikin iska. 03:15.964 --> 03:21.409 Gwaje-gwajen kwamfuta da ƙididdigar samfuri da aka gina bisa wannan kuskuren mai halaka, a 03:21.409 --> 03:25.268 sakamakon haka koyaushe sun hango dumamar yanayi. 03:25.268 --> 03:33.351 Ci gaban yanayi na baya da kuma sauye-sauyen samuwar gajimare da gudun ruwan teku ba za a iya kama su daidai a cikin samfura 03:33.351 --> 03:37.801 ba. Wannan ya haifar da hasashe da ba su daidai kwata-kwata. 03:37.801 --> 03:45.628 Ko Kwamitin Hadin Gwiwar Gwamnatoci kan Canjin Yanayi (IPCC) ya amince a shekarar 2001: "A cikin bincike da ƙirar yanayi, ya 03:45.628 --> 03:51.561 kamata mu gane cewa wannan tsari ne haɗe-haɗe, ba-layi, mai ruɗani. Saboda haka, ba zai yiwu a 03:51.561 --> 03:55.706 yi hasashen dogon lokaci kan ci gaban yanayi ba." 03:55.706 --> 03:59.436 Canjin yanayi ƙarya ne 03:59.436 --> 04:07.542 Wannan ya ba da damar barazanar siyasa ta "dumin duniya" ta kumbura zuwa wani babban dodon ƙarya mai ban mamaki, wanda ya 04:07.542 --> 04:11.923 sa Majalisar Turai ta ayyana "gaggawar yanayi" a shekarar 2019. 04:11.923 --> 04:19.024 Duk da haka, masana kimiyya da yawa har ma da wasu 'yan siyasa suna juyawa daga bayanan tashin hankali na Kwamitin Hadin Gwiwar 04:19.024 --> 04:25.725 Gwamnatoci kan Canjin Yanayi. An bayyana bincike daban-daban da lanƙwasar zafin jiki a matsayin ƙarya da ƙirƙirar karya. 04:25.725 --> 04:34.873 Misali, a cikin jadawalin hockey stick, an daidaita canje-canjen zafin gaske ta hanyar dogon lokacin dumi na ƙarni na 12, wanda ya 04:34.873 --> 04:42.472 haifar da ƙarya na yanayi mai kusan daidaito tsawon shekaru 800, domin a danganta tashin zafin daga shekarar 04:42.472 --> 04:47.392 1900 zuwa gaba ga fitar da CO2 da masana'antu suka haifar. 04:47.392 --> 04:55.630 Duk da waɗannan ƙarya da aka gane, ana tura kuɗaɗen gwamnati musamman zuwa wannan binciken da aka ba fifiko a siyasa. Abin 04:55.630 --> 05:04.063 da ake kira sauyin yanayi na ɗan adam ya zama akida wadda ke ƙoƙarin hana gaskiya bayyana ta kowace hanya da ake buƙata. 05:04.063 --> 05:08.496 Yanayi ba shi daidai da yanayin sauyin yanayi 05:08.496 --> 05:16.439 Fiye da shekaru ɗari da suka wuce, masana yanayi sun amince su tantance bayanan abubuwan yanayi da sigogi da aka rubuta na 05:16.439 --> 05:21.216 aƙalla shekaru talatin domin su iya yin bayani game da yanayi. 05:21.216 --> 05:27.628 Dabi'ar yanayi a zahiri ba komai ba ce illa babbar tarin bayanai game da yanayi na baya, wanda ke nufin cewa ba za a iya 05:27.628 --> 05:34.580 kare dabi'ar yanayi ba. Ana iya lura da dabi'ar yanayi ne kawai a tsawon lokaci mai tsawo da kuma a faɗin yankuna da yawa. 05:34.580 --> 05:40.353 Masana yanayi da gwamnati ke biya a manyan kafofin watsa labarai suna fassara ko da 'yan kwanaki masu zafi da 05:40.353 --> 05:45.921 bushe a matsayin mummunan yanayi da hujjar cewa an riga an samu bala'in sauyin yanayi. 05:45.921 --> 05:51.016 Duk da haka, waɗannan abubuwan yanayi na wucin gadi ne kuma na gida, waɗanda ake gabatarwa 05:51.016 --> 05:54.789 ga jama'a a matsayin bala'o'in sauyin yanayi. 05:54.789 --> 05:59.441 Shin ana gangan gauraya ma'anar kalmomin 'hali na yau da kullum' da 'sauyin yanayi' ta hannun 'yan siyasa da manyan 05:59.441 --> 06:03.000 kafofin watsa labarai domin tada jijiyoyin jama'a da ruɗar su? 06:03.000 --> 06:08.265 Al'umma mai tsoro game da makoma za a iya sa ta yarda da "manufofin sauyin yanayi" cikin sauƙi sosai, sannan a 06:08.265 --> 06:12.320 shirya ta don harajin sauyin yanayi da ƙarin hauhawar farashi. 06:12.320 --> 06:18.962 Masana binciken yanayi a Cibiyar Binciken Tasirin Yanayi ta Potsdam (PIK) ma suna son amfani da rikice-rikice tsakanin yanayi 06:18.962 --> 06:24.912 na gajeren lokaci da yanayi na dogon lokaci don yada firgici. Shin babban burin masana binciken yanayi a nan shi 06:24.912 --> 06:28.394 ne samun kudade don tada tarzoma game da sauyin yanayi? 06:28.394 --> 06:32.494 Rawar Kwamitin Hadin Gwiwar Gwamnatoci kan Canjin Yanayi (IPCC) 06:32.494 --> 06:39.709 Kwamitin Hadin Gwiwar Gwamnatoci kan Canjin Yanayi (IPCC) an kafa shi a shekarar 1988 ta Shirin Muhalli na Majalisar 06:39.709 --> 06:43.987 Dinkin Duniya (UNEP) da Kungiyar Duniya ta Yanayi (WMO). 06:43.987 --> 06:50.274 Tsohon Firayim Ministan Jamus Helmut Schmidt ya bayyana rashin amincewarsa ga IPCC a cikin jawabin da 06:50.274 --> 06:54.349 ya yi kan dumamar yanayi a Berlin a shekarar 2011: 06:54.349 --> 06:59.937 Takardun da Kwamitin Hadin Gwiwar Gwamnatoci kan Canjin Yanayi (IPCC) ya gabatar zuwa yanzu an yi musu 06:59.937 --> 07:06.197 shakku, musamman tunda an tabbatar da cewa wasu daga cikin masu binciken da ke ciki masu zamba ne. 07:06.197 --> 07:12.720 Daga cikin ƙwararru 2,500 na farko a IPCC, 5 kacal suka rage waɗanda suka tsaya kan ra'ayin cewa 07:12.720 --> 07:17.024 sauyin yanayi na faruwa ne saboda ayyukan ɗan adam. 07:17.024 --> 07:23.332 Duk da haka, 'yan siyasa da yanzu suka mamaye IPCC suna amincewa ba tare da tunani ba ga samfuran da suka tsaya 07:23.332 --> 07:27.805 kawai a tunani da hanyoyin da ra'ayoyin siyasa suka rinjaye. 07:27.805 --> 07:35.376 Ba a fara wakiltar ƙwararrun canjin yanayi a IPCC ba sai farkon shekarun 1980. Tambayar ita ce me ya sa aikin ya 07:35.376 --> 07:40.166 kasance ba na kimiyya sosai kuma cike da yaɗa labaran ƙarya. 07:40.166 --> 07:45.811 Ana bayyana sha'anin kuɗi a cikin tatsuniyar bala'in sauyin yanayi da mutane suka yi, 07:45.811 --> 07:48.668 kamar yadda ƙwararru a fannin ke tabbatarwa. 07:48.668 --> 07:56.954 Daga cikin waɗanda ke cin gajiyar waɗannan dimbin kuɗaɗen akwai mutane masu zaman kansu kamar Al Gore, tsohon Mataimakin Shugaban 07:56.954 --> 08:05.111 Amurka, Warren Buffet, Elon Musk, wanda ya karɓi dala biliyan 1.5 na Amurka daga kuɗaɗen haraji, Vinod Khosla da James Cameron. 08:05.111 --> 08:12.048 Amma ƙungiyoyin bincike da cibiyoyin da ke karɓar tallafi, da kuma masana'antu daban-daban da bankuna, kamar 08:12.048 --> 08:16.542 Bankin Duniya, suma suna amfana daga wannan tatsuniya. 08:16.542 --> 08:20.582 Amincewar mai tada tarzoma 08:20.582 --> 08:27.583 James Lovelock ya nuna cikin ban mamaki yadda wani mai imani da sauyin yanayi ya sami "kwarewar Damaskus" ya canza 08:27.583 --> 08:34.836 daga Saul zuwa Bulus lokacin da ya bayyana a wata hira cewa ya yi kuskure a hasashen firgita-firgita da ya yi. 08:34.836 --> 08:41.482 Ya yi tunani sosai game da samfuran da ake amfani da su wajen hasashen bala'in sauyin yanayi. A 08:41.482 --> 08:45.210 cewar Lovelock, waɗannan samfuran ba sa gamsar da shi. 08:45.210 --> 08:50.056 "Matsalar ita ce har yanzu mun san ƙasa da yadda ya kamata game da yanayi. Shekaru ashirin kacal 08:50.056 --> 08:53.183 da suka wuce, mun yi tunanin mun sarrafa komai." 08:53.183 --> 08:58.294 Wannan ne ya haifar da littattafai da dama masu tada hankali, ciki har da nawa, saboda ya yi kama da 08:58.294 --> 09:01.560 abu ne mai sauƙin fahimta. Amma hakan bai faru ba. 09:01.560 --> 09:06.857 Yanayi yana bin tsarin sa na kullum. A takaice, babu wani abin mamaki da ya faru. 09:06.857 --> 09:12.625 Mun yi zato cewa yanzu mun riga mun kai rabin hanyar zuwa duniyar da ta yi zafi fiye da kima. Sai dai 09:12.625 --> 09:16.321 duniya ba ta yi zafi sosai ba tun farkon mileniyum. 09:16.321 --> 09:23.277 Zazzabi ya kasance kusan daidaito, duk da cewa ya kamata ya tashi. A lokaci guda, babu shakka 09:23.277 --> 09:27.470 matakan carbon dioxide sun ci gaba da ƙaruwa. 09:27.470 --> 09:32.576 Canjin yanayi: imani da ilimi 09:32.576 --> 09:37.881 A cikin aikinsa, Werner Kirstein ya nuna yadda mutane ke makale tsakanin ƙarfafan adawa 09:37.881 --> 09:40.959 na 'imanin' da 'ilimi'. Ga misalai uku kawai: 09:40.959 --> 09:47.194 1. Ra'ayi: Tsofaffin hotuna sun nuna manyan kankara a tsaunukan Alps, yayin da hotuna na baya-bayan nan ke nuna 09:47.194 --> 09:54.272 kankara da suka ja baya idan aka kwatanta. Shin wannan wata alamar gargaɗi ce ta masifar yanayi da ke tafe? 09:54.272 --> 10:04.105 Ilimi: Sassaka da ragowar tsirrai a wuraren da yanzu ba su da kankara sun tabbatar da cewa a da ba a nan da kankara. 10:04.105 --> 10:10.133 Wannan hujja tana nuna cewa a cikin kashi 65 cikin ɗari na shekaru 10,000 da suka gabata, kankara a 10:10.133 --> 10:16.284 tsaunukan Alps sun yi ƙanana kuma zafin jiki ya fi yawa – ba tare da wata tsoma bakin ɗan adam ba! 10:16.284 --> 10:24.210 2. Imani: Yawan beran polar yana fuskantar barazana mai tsanani daga dumamar yanayi da mutane suka haifar. 10:24.210 --> 10:30.751 Gaskiya: An riga an samu barebari masu launin polar a cikin Tekun Arctic shekaru 600,000 da suka wuce. Wannan na nufin sun 10:30.751 --> 10:35.223 tsira daga duk lokutan interglacial (tsakanin zamanin kankara). 10:35.223 --> 10:38.573 A lokacin yanayi mai dumi, su ma suna cin ciyayi, ƙananan bishiyoyi da 'ya'yan itace, don haka 10:38.573 --> 10:41.340 ake ɗaukar su a matsayin masu farauta masu basira. 10:41.340 --> 10:50.647 Tun da gwamnatin Kanada ta haramta farauta, adadin dabbobi ya karu daga kusan 5,000 zuwa 25,000. 10:50.647 --> 10:55.841 3. Imani: Kankara a ƙarshen duniya tana narke ba tare da tsayawa ba. 10:55.841 --> 11:02.754 An san cewa Larsen B Ice Shelf ta rasa kashi uku bisa hudu na dukkanin kankara. Ba abin da ya rage sai lokaci 11:02.754 --> 11:07.200 kafin Arctic da Antarctica su zama cikakkiyar babu kankara. 11:07.200 --> 11:15.880 Ilimi: Tsawon shekaru da dama, an sani cewa yanayin zafin Arctic da Antarctic suna nuna bambancin sauyi. 11:15.880 --> 11:22.374 Wannan yana nufin cewa yayin da zafin jiki a sandar kudu ke raguwa, yana ƙaruwa a sandar arewa. 11:22.374 --> 11:29.440 Wannan lamari ana kuma kiransa 'juyin bipolar' ko haɗin Arctic-Antarctic. 11:29.440 --> 11:35.423 Ya bayyana cewa duba da kyau na iya bayyana wani hoto daban na wani hali. 11:35.423 --> 11:41.183 A cikin muhawarar yanayi ta yanzu, duk da haka, alama ce cewa shawo kan mutane ta hanyar motsin rai ya fi 11:41.183 --> 11:45.124 muhimmanci, ko da kuwa hakan ya saba wa sanin gaskiya. 11:45.124 --> 11:48.512 Menene eco-nihilism? 11:48.512 --> 11:55.755 A cewar Albert Camus, marubuci ne ɗan Faransa, falsafa kuma wanda ya lashe Kyautar Nobel ta Adabi, nihilism ba yana nufin yin 11:55.755 --> 12:00.440 imani da babu komai ba, sai dai rashin yin imani da abin da yake. 12:00.440 --> 12:05.100 Masu ƙin komai sau da yawa suna yin duk abin da suke iya yi don cimma wani abu da suke ganin 12:05.100 --> 12:08.640 yana da kyau, amma ba sa la'akari da sakamakon. 12:08.640 --> 12:15.585 Waɗannan na iya zama masu tsanani kuma su karya gaba ɗaya ka'idojin tunani na kimiyya da na hankali. 12:15.585 --> 12:21.682 Nihilism na karɓar tauye mutuncin ɗan adam don abin da ake ganin dalili ne mai kyau. 12:21.682 --> 12:30.431 Eco-nihilism falsafa ce ta rayuwa wadda ke mai da hankali kan ƙudurin zuciya mai tsanani da ƙin sassauci wajen ceto muhalli. 12:30.431 --> 12:37.450 Wata akida ce wadda a wasu lokuta ake ganinta da ta'addancin muhalli mara tausayawa. 12:37.450 --> 12:44.670 Edgar Gärtner, marubucin littafin "Eco-Nihilism: A Critique of Political Ecology," ba shi kaɗai bane wajen ganin kariyar 12:44.670 --> 12:49.203 yanayi a matsayin mafi haɗari nau'in nihilism a halin yanzu. 12:49.203 --> 12:52.544 Mai lambu: "Menene eco-nihilism?" 12:52.544 --> 12:57.061 Kashe-kashen tattalin arziki a kashi-kashi, domin ana sanya komai a kan katin guda ɗaya ba 12:57.061 --> 13:00.352 tare da la'akari da kuɗaɗen da ake kashewa ba. 13:00.352 --> 13:07.163 Ba tare da tunani ba, "manufofin yanayi" na karɓar yunwa a matsayin sakamakon ƙaruwa (da aka yi da gangan) a farashin 13:07.163 --> 13:12.000 tushen makamashi da abinci domin kare wani tsarin ƙididdiga. 13:12.000 --> 13:20.768 "Kare yanayi" – ta hanyar rage fitar da CO2 da taimakon makamashi "mai sabuntawa" – ra'ayi ne wawa, ba a kammala ba. 13:20.768 --> 13:27.144 Kwandon rana da iska ba kyauta ba ne; farashin aiwatar da su na fasaha yana da yawa sosai 13:27.144 --> 13:32.787 kuma ba su da daidaito wajen fitar da carbon. 13:32.787 --> 13:37.413 Raunana dimokuradiyya ta hanyar gaggawar yanayi 13:37.413 --> 13:43.081 Tarayyar Turai ta ayyana gaggawar sauyin yanayi tun wani lokaci da ya wuce, kuma da yawa daga cikin biranen 13:43.081 --> 13:47.107 Jamus sun riga sun ɗauki wannan mataki marar dimokuradiyya. 13:47.107 --> 13:53.328 Za a yi amfani da ikon gaggawa don kawar da abokan hamayya na siyasa. Ba hujjoji mafi 13:53.328 --> 13:57.400 ƙarfi ne za su rinjaye ba, sai burin akida. 13:57.400 --> 14:03.869 Duk da haka, waɗannan buƙatun masu tsanani suna ɗauke da babbar yiwuwar haifar da rikici na zamantakewa da tattalin arziki. 14:03.869 --> 14:14.247 An yi matuƙar daidai da damuwa game da kalmar 'lardin gaggawa', domin hakan na iya buɗe ƙofofi ga kalubalantar mulkin doka. 14:14.247 --> 14:18.105 Manifesto na Yanayi 14:18.105 --> 14:23.624 Kungiyar Bavarian Values ta wallafa wata takardar ayyukan canjin yanayi a farkon shekarar 14:23.624 --> 14:28.000 2020. Ga taƙaitaccen bayanin muhimman abubuwa: 14:28.000 --> 14:32.886 1. Rana ce ke sarrafa yanayinmu, ba CO₂ ba. 14:32.886 --> 14:40.060 2. Matakan kare yanayi – kamar sauyin makamashi da ya gaza – kuskure ne na siyasa. 14:40.060 --> 14:47.056 3. Jamus na buƙatar samar da makamashi mai dorewa kuma mai araha. 14:47.056 --> 14:54.024 An yi bayani dalla-dalla game da waɗannan batutuwa a cikin Manifesto na Yanayi na 2020. Daga cikin sauran abubuwa, WerteUnion 14:54.024 --> 15:01.611 ta ƙi amincewa da "Green Deal" da ƙayyade farashin CO2 kamar yadda aka bayyana a cikin "Kunshin Yanayi na Gwamnatin Tarayya". 15:01.611 --> 15:07.769 Manifesto na Yanayi yana kiran kawo ƙarshen tatsuniyar yanayi da gudanar da kamfen na ilimantarwa kan 15:07.769 --> 15:11.720 batutuwan yanayi, zagayowar rana da carbon dioxide. 15:11.720 --> 15:18.480 Za a iya samun ƙarin bayani game da wannan a cikin Manifesto na Yanayi na 2020 na Gamayyar Ƙimomin Bavaria. 15:18.480 --> 15:23.382 Ta hanyar tsoro da yada firgici ne kawai 'yan siyasa ke sa mutane su yi biyayya su kuma amince. Barazanar bala'in 15:23.382 --> 15:28.096 sauyin yanayi ita ce a halin yanzu ke zama kayan aikin da ake amfani da shi don cimma wannan. 15:28.096 --> 15:34.302 Duk da haka, lokacin da sabuwar ƙaramar zamanin kankara ta zama ba za a iya musanta ba cikin 'yan shekaru masu zuwa, za a ba da 15:34.302 --> 15:38.045 amsa guda ɗaya kawai ga 'masana canjin yanayi', ''yan siyasa masu maganar dumamar yanayi' 15:38.045 --> 15:40.860 da 'yan jaridar yaɗa labaran canjin yanayi': 15:40.860 --> 15:46.315 Idan ka yi ihu a cikin daji, dole ne ka kuma kasance a shirye ka ji maimaitawar sauti, ko da kuwa 15:46.315 --> 15:49.183 ya bambanta gaba ɗaya. Farfesa Dr. Werner Kirstein