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Utshintsho lwemozulu – abantu phakathi kolwazi nenkolelo

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Ingaba imozulu kulula ukuyiphembelela njengoko
oosopolitiki namajelo eendaba besoloko besixelela?

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00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:19,624
Kubantu abaninzi, izimvo esele zenziwe zabalweli-mfuno
abafanelekileyo zanele ngokupheleleyo, ngelixa

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abanye befumana lo mbandela unzima kakhulu
ukuba bangawuphatha ngokucokisekileyo ngokwabo.

6
00:00:25,613 --> 00:00:32,366
Umbhali, uNjing. Gqr. Werner Kirstein, ingcali yezimo zemozulu
kunye neyofiziksi enamava, sele efunda iinkqubo

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zenzululwazi zotshintsho lwezimo zemozulu
lwengingqi nolwehlabathi ngaphezulu kweminyaka engama-40.

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Kwincwadi yakhe entsha, "UTSHINTSHO LWEMOZIMO YEZULU – Inyaniso,
Iphutha okanye Ubuxoki? Abantu phakathi kolwazi nenkolelo,"

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uchaza iinyaniso malunga "nezihloko ezishushu" zotshintsho
lwemozimo yezulu ngendlela wonke umntu anokuqonda ngayo.

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Ngokukodwa, ibonisa ukuba: Utshintsho
lwemozulu luyinyani, utshintsho lwemozulu

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luyimpazamo, kwaye utshintsho lwemozulu bubuxoki.

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Ngaphandle kwale mpikiswano ibonakalayo,
nganye kwezi zitatimende zithathu ichanekile.

13
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Oku kunokwenzeka njani? Kwincwadi yakhe ekulula
ukuyifunda, enamaphepha amalunga nama-200,

14
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uWerner Kirstein uphendula le mibuzo neminye emininzi.

15
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Ezinye zezi "hot spots" zigqamisiwe kule documentary.

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Ngenxa yale njongo, ezinye iingcaphulo
zithathwe ngqo kwincwadi kaWerner Kirstein okanye

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ziphinde zenziwe ngokufingqiweyo ngamazwi ethu.

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Utshintsho lwemozulu yinyani

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Imozulu yoMhlaba ibisoloko itshintsha, nto
leyo ethetha ukuba utshintsho lwemozulu

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yinyani – ngokukodwa, utshintsho lwemozulu lendalo!

21
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Iimpawu zotshintsho lwemozulu nokuguquguquka kwemozulu kudala
ziphantsi kophando lweengcali zemozulu neze-geology kwaye

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zirekhodiwe, phakathi kwezinye izinto,
ngokuvavanywa kwemicu yemithi, uhlalutyo lweentsalela

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ezisezantsi kunye notshintsho kwimilo yomhlaba.

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Ngokutshintshatshintsha kwexesha elifudumeleyo
nelibandayo, umlinganiselo we-CO2 emoyeni nayo

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utshintshile, nangona oku kwenzeke emva kwexesha.

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Okokuqala, iqondo lobushushu belisoloko linyuka, kulandele kade
ke ukunyuka komlinganiselo we-CO2. Umahluko kumaqondo obushushu

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ubufikelela kwi-10 °C. Umzekelo, iqondo
lobushushu namhlanje liphantsi malunga needigri

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ezili-10 kunamaxesha ashushu kwimbali yoMhlaba!

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Imiphakamo ye-CO2 nayo yayisoloko iphezulu kakhulu kunale
yanamhlanje. Utshintsho lwamaqondo obushushu lwalusoloko lungenxa

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yezizathu zendalo, ezifana nemisebenzi yelanga kunye
nemiqathango yendlela umhlaba ojikeleza ngayo; abantu abazange

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babe natyala kutshintsho lwemozulu nangayiphi na indlela.

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Utshintsho lwemozulu bubuxoki

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Ngo-1986, i-German Physical Society yakhupha
isilumkiso malunga 'nesichotho esizayo semozulu yehlabathi'

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esisekelwe kwizibalo eziphosakeleyo, ikhava yeMauna Loa.

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Ikhwele yeMauna Loa ibonisa unxulumano olubonakalayo*
phakathi kokunyuka kweqondo lobushushu nokunyuka kwe-CO2.

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Kwathi ke kwathiwa ukuba iqondo lobushushu
loMhlaba lixhomekeke kubungakanani beegesi

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ezifumaneka kancinci, ezifana ne-CO₂, emoyeni.

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Ngenxa yale mpazamo inkulu, izimilinganiso zekhompyutha
neenkqubo zokubala iimodeli bezisoloko zibike ukufudumala.

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Iinkqubela zemozulu yangaphambili kunye neendlela eziguquguqukayo
zokuvela kwamafu kunye nemisinga yolwandle nazo

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azinakufakwa ngokuchanekileyo kwiimodeli. Oku
kukhokelele kwiqikelelo elingachanekanga kwaphela.

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Nkqu nePhaneli yoRhulumente ngeziTshintsho zeMozulu (IPCC) yavuma
ngo-2001: "Kuphando lwemozulu nakumalinge ayo, kufuneka siqonde

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ukuba le yinkqubo edityanisiweyo, engalandeliyo
umgca, nengazinzanga. Ngenxa yoko, uqikelelo

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lwexesha elide lophuhliso lwemozulu alunakwenzeka."

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Utshintsho lwemozulu bubuxoki

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Oku kuvumele isoyikiso sezopolitiko 'sokufudumala kwehlabathi'
ukuba sikhule sibe sisilo esikhulu kakhulu

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sobuxoki, nto leyo eyakhokelela iPalamente ye-EU
ukuba ibhengeze 'imeko kaxakeka yemozulu' ngo-2019.

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Noko ke, baninzi ngakumbi abazenzululwazi kwanamanye amapolotiki
abajika kude neengxelo ezoyikisayo zePhaneli yeZizwe eziManyeneyo

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yoTshintsho lweMozulu. Izifundo ezahlukeneyo nemigca yokutshintsha
kweqondo lobushushu ziye zavela njengezobuxoki nokuqhathwa.

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Umzekelo, kwigrafu ye-hockey stick, ukuguquguquka kobushushu
bokwenyani kulungelelaniswe lixesha elide elishushu

50
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kwinkulungwane ye-12, nto leyo eyadala umbono wokuba imozulu
iphantse yazinza kangangeminyaka engama-800, ukuze ke

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kunxulunyaniswe ukunyuka kobushushu
ukususela ngo-1900 ukuza kuthi ga ngoku nokukhutshwa

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kwe-CO2 okubangelwe yinkqubela yezoshishino.

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Nangona ezi ntsomi zivunywe, inkxaso-mali karhulumente
isetyenziselwa ngokukodwa olu phando "olubekwe phambili

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kwezopolitiko". Oku kuthiwa kukutshintsha kwemozulu
okubangelwe ngabantu kuye kwaba ngumkholo ofuna

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ukucinezela inyaniso ngayo nayiphi na indlela efunekayo.

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Imozulu ayifani nemeko yozulu

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Kwiminyaka engaphezu kwekhulu eyadlulayo, iingcali zemozulu
zavumelana ukuba zivavanye iziganeko zemozulu ezirekhodiweyo

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kunye nemilinganiselo yeminyaka engamashumi amathathu
ubuncinane ukuze zikwazi ukwenza iingxelo malunga nemozulu.

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Iklim eneneni ayinto ingaphaya kwengqokelela enkulu yedatha
yemozulu yexesha elidlulileyo, nto leyo ethetha

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ukuba iklim ayinakukhuselwa. Iklim inokubhatyathiswa
kuphela ngokuhamba kwexesha elide nakwiindawo ezinkulu.

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Iingcali zemozulu ezixhaswa ngurhulumente kumajelo eendaba
aphambili zitolika kwanangeentsuku ezimbalwa

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ezishushu nezomileyo njengeemeko zemozulu
ezigqithisileyo nobungqina bentlekele yemozulu esele yenzekile.

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Nangona kunjalo, ezi ziziganeko zemozulu zexeshana nezengingqi
nje kuphela, eziboniswa uluntu njengeentlekele zemozulu.

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Ingaba amagama athi 'imo yezulu' kunye 'nemozulu'
ayatyhalwa ngabom ngabaphathi bezopolitiko kunye namajelo

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eendaba aphambili ukuze kuphazamiswe kwaye kulahlekiswe uluntu?

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Abantu abanoloyiko ngekamva banokuthi bakholiswe lula
kakhulu ukuba bamkele "iinjongo zemozulu" kwaye balungiselelwe

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iirhafu zemozulu kunye nokunyuswa kwamaxabiso ngakumbi.

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Abaphandi bemozulu basePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research (PIK) nabo bayathanda ukusebenzisa ukudideka phakathi

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kwesimo sezulu nemozulu ukuze bahlise uloyiko.
Ingaba eyona njongo iphambili yabaphandi bemozulu apha

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kukufumana inkxaso-mali ngokuxhasa uloyiko lwemozulu?

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Indima yePhaneli yooRhulumente ngeTshintsho leMozulu (IPCC)

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Iphaneli Eziphakathi Kwezilawuli Ngotshintsho Lwemozulu
(IPCC) yasekwa ngo-1988 yiNkqubo yeZizwe eziManyeneyo

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yezeNdalo (UNEP) kunye noMbutho weMozulu weHlabathi (WMO).

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Owayesakuba yiTshansela yaseJamani uHelmut Schmidt
ubonakalise ukungathembi kwakhe i-IPCC kwintetho

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yakhe ngokufudumala kwehlabathi eBerlin ngo-2011:

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Amaxwebhu anikezelwe yi-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) kude kube ngoku abhekwe ngokuthandabuza, ingakumbi

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kuba abaphandi abathile ababekuyo bafunyaniswe ukuba ngabaxoki.

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Kwii-2,500 zeeengcali zokuqala kwi-IPCC,
zisele zi-5 kuphela ezazibambelele kwingqikelelo

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yokutshintsha kwemozulu okubangelwe ngumntu.

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Noko kunjalo, oosopolitiki abalawula i-IPCC ngoku bathemba
ngokungaboni iimodeli ezisekelwe kukuqikelela kuphela

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kunye neendlela zokusebenza eziphenjelelwe ziingcinga ezithile.

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Kwakungekho kwada kwangethuba leminyaka yoo-1980 apho
iingcali zemozulu zazimelwe ngokwenene kwi-IPCC. Umbuzo kukuba

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kutheni lo msebenzi ungenasayensi kangaka kwaye unobushishine.

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Iimfuno zemali kwintsomi yentlekele yemozulu eyenziwe ngabantu
ziyavela, njengoko iingcali kulo mmandla zisiqinisekisa.

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Phakathi kwabo bazuza kwezi mali zoyikekayo kukho abantu
abazimeleyo abanjengo-Al Gore, owayesakuba nguSekela-Mongameli

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wase-US, uWarren Buffet, u-Elon Musk, owafumana iidola zaseMelika
ezizibhiliyoni ezili-1.5 kwimali yabahlawuli berhafu, uVinod

87
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Khosla kunye noJames Cameron. Kodwa amaqela ophando namaziko
afumana inkxaso-mali, kunye namashishini ahlukeneyo neebhanki,

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ezifana neBhanki yeHlabathi, nawo axhamla kulo msonto.

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Ukwamkela komntu oxhaphazayo

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UJames Lovelock ubonisa ngokumangalisayo indlela umntu okholelwa
kutshintsho lwemozulu awaba ngayo "namava aseDamascus" waza

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watshintsha ukusuka kuSawuli waya
kuPawulos xa wayechaza kudliwanondlebe ukuba

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wayephazame ngeengqikelelo zakhe ezoyikisayo.

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Wayecingisise ngakumbi ngeemodeli
ezisetyenziselwa ukuxela kwangaphambili intlekele

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yemozulu. NgokukaLovelock, ezi modeli azisamkholelisi.

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Ingxaki yeyokuba sisazi kancinci kakhulu
malunga nemozulu. Kwiminyaka engama-20 nje

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edlulileyo, besicinga ukuba siyayilawula yonke into.

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Oku ke kwakhokelela kwiincwadi ezininzi ezothusayo, kuquka
neyam, kuba kwakubonakala kucace gca. Kodwa akuzange kwenzeke.

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Imozulu ilandela ipateni yayo eqhelekileyo.
Ngokwenene, akukho nto ingaqhelekanga eyenzekileyo.

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Besicinga ukuba ngoku besiza kube sisemaphakathini
kwihlabathi elishushu kakhulu. Noko ke, ihlabathi alishushanga

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kangako ukusukela ekuqaleni kwale minyaka ingamawaka.

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Iqondo lobushushu lihleli lizinzile phantse, nangona
bekufanele ukuba linyuke. Kwangaxeshanye, akukho mathandabuzo

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okuba amanqanaba ekhabhoni dayokside aqhubekile nokunyuka.

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Utshintsho lwemozulu: ukholo ngokuchasene nolwazi

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Kumsebenzi wakhe, uWerner Kirstein ubonisa indlela
abantu ababanjwe ngayo phakathi kwamandla angqubanayo

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'yokholo' 'nolwazi'. Nazi iimizekelo ezintathu nje:

106
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1. Inkolelo: Iifoto ezindala zibonisa imikhenkce emikhulu
yaseAlpine, ngelixa iifoto zamva nje zibonisa

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imikhenkce esele ishenxa xa ithelekiswa. Ngaba olu luphawu
lwengxelo olulumkisayo lwembubhiso yemozulu esemnyango?

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00:09:54,272 --> 00:09:59,945
Ulwazi: Iintsalela zemithi nezityalo kwiindawo
ezingasekho namajelo omkhenkce zingqine ukuba

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kwakungekho majelo omkhenkce apha kwixesha elidlulileyo.

110
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Ubungqina obunjalo bubonisa ukuba ngexesha lama-65 ekhulwini
leminyaka eyi-10,000 edlulileyo, amakhephu

111
00:10:09,962 --> 00:10:16,284
aseAlpine ayenencinci kwaye amaqondo obushushu ayephezulu
– ngaphandle kwalo naluphi na ungenelelo lwabantu!

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2. Inkolelo: Inani leebhere ezimhlophe zasemzantsi weplanethi
lisongelwa kakhulu kukufudumala kwehlabathi okubangelwe ngabantu.

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Inyaniso: Iibhere ezimhlophe zasePolar bezisele zikho kwiLwandle
lweArctic kwiminyaka engama-600,000 eyadlulayo. Oku

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kuthetha ukuba zisindile kuzo zonke ixesha
lokunyibilika kwemikhenkce phakathi kwamaxesha obumandundu.

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Xa kufudumele, zikwatyisa ingca, amatyholo
kunye neziqhamo ezincinci, kwaye ngenxa

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yoko zithathwa njengezigcawu ezikrelekrele.

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Ukusukela oko urhulumente waseKhanada wavalela ukuzingela, inani
lezilwanyana liye landa ukusuka kuma-5,000 ukuya kuma-25,000.

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3. Inkolelo: Umkhenkce kwiipolo uyanyibilika ngokungenakunqandwa.

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I-Larsen B Ice Shelf eyaziwayo ilahlekelwe zizikota ezintathu
zesine zobunzima bayo bomkhenkce. Ngumcimbi

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nje wexesha phambi kokuba i-Arctic
ne-Antarctic zibe ngaphandle komkhenkce ngokupheleleyo.

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Ulwazi: Kangangamashumi eminyaka, kuye
kwaziwa ukuba amaqondo obushushu ase-Arctic

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nase-Antarctic abonisa ukuguquguquka okuphikisanayo.

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Oku kuthetha ukuba ngelixa amaqondo obushushu
eNyiba yaseMzantsi esihla, ayenyuka eNyibeni yaseMntla.

124
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Le meko ikwaziwa njenge 'bipolar
swing' okanye i-Arctic-Antarctic coupling.

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Kuyavela ukuba ukujonga ngokusondeleyo
kunokuveza umfanekiso owahlukileyo wemeko.

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Kule mpikiswano yangoku malunga nemozulu, nangona kunjalo,
kubonakala ngathi ukweyisela ngemvakalelo kubaluleke

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ngakumbi, nokuba kungqubana nolwazi olusekelwe kwinto enyani.

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Yintoni i-eco-nihilism?

129
00:11:48,512 --> 00:11:56,133
Ngokuka-Albert Camus, umbhali waseFrentshi, ifilosofa nomphumeleli
weMbasa yeNobel yezoBhalo, i-nihilism ayithethi ukukholelwa

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kwakusini na, kodwa ithetha ukungakholelwa koko kukhoyo.

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Abanihilisti bahlala besenza konke
okusemandleni abo ukuze bafumane into abakholelwa

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ukuba ilungile, kodwa abazihoyi iziphumo.

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Ezi zinto zinokuba yingozi kwaye zophule ngokupheleleyo
imigaqo yokucinga ngokwenzululwazi nangokwengqiqo.

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00:12:15,585 --> 00:12:21,682
INihilism yamkela ukunyhashwa kwentlonipho
yomntu ngenxa yesizathu ekucingelwa ukuba silungile.

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I-Eco-nihilism yifilosofi yobomi egxile
kwisigqibo esigxininisiweyo

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ngokugqithisileyo nesilukhuni sokulondoloza indalo.

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Yimbono-bucala ethi ngamanye amaxesha
iphawulwe ngobunqolobi bendalo obungenasihawu.

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Edgar Gärtner, umbhali wencwadi ethi "Eco-Nihilism: A
Critique of Political Ecology," akayedwa ekuboneni ukhuselo

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lwemozulu njengowona mhlobo unobungozi we-nihilism ngoku.

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Umgadi: "Yintoni i-eco-nihilism?"

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00:12:52,544 --> 00:13:00,352
Ukuzibulala koqoqosho ngokwezabelo, kuba konke
kubhejwa ngentlawulo enye ngaphandle kokuqwalasela iindleko.

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00:13:00,352 --> 00:13:07,005
Ngaphandle kokucingisisa, 'umgaqo-nkqubo wemozulu'
uyayamkela indlala njengesiphumo sokunyuswa (ngabom) kwexabiso

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lamandla nokutya ukuze kukhuselwe isakhiwo esenziwe ngamanani.

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"Ukhuselo lwemozulu" – ngokunciphisa
ukukhutshwa kwe-CO2 ngoncedo lwamandla "avuselelekayo"

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– yingcinga yobudenge, engacokiswanga kakuhle.

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00:13:20,768 --> 00:13:27,061
Amandla elanga nawomoya akasimahla; iindleko
zokuphunyezwa kobuchwepheshe zinkulu kakhulu kwaye

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00:13:27,061 --> 00:13:32,787
akahambelani nokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni.

148
00:13:32,787 --> 00:13:37,413
Ukugatya idemokhrasi ngongxamiseko lwemozulu

149
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I-EU yabhengeza ingxaki yemozulu kwakudala,
kwaye izixeko ezininzi zaseJamani sele

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zithathe eli nyathelo lingalawulwa lidemokhrasi.

151
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Amagunya okungxamiseka azakusetyenziselwa ukutshabalalisa
abachasi bezopolitiko. Asisekho zizizathu ezibalaseleyo

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eziphumelelayo, kodwa zinjongo zeemfundiso-ntsapho.

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00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:03,869
Nangona kunjalo, ezi mfuno zigqithisileyo zinamandla amakhulu
okubangela ungquzulwano olukhulu eluntwini nasemnxebeni.

154
00:14:03,869 --> 00:14:14,247
Iinkxalabo malunga negama elithi 'imeko kaxakeka' zivakalile
kakhulu, kuba lingavula ithuba lokungathotyelwa komthetho.

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IManifesto yeMozulu

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00:14:18,105 --> 00:14:28,000
Umanyano lweeNqobo zaseBavaria lupapashe isimemezelo sezemo yomoya
ekuqaleni kuka-2020. Nasi isishwankathelo samaphuzu aphambili:

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1. Ilanga lilawula imozulu yethu, hayi i-CO₂.

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2. Amanyathelo okukhusela imozulu – anjengotshintsho
lwamandla olungaphumelelanga – yimpazamo yezopolitiko.

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3. IJamani idinga unikezelo
lwamandla oluzinzileyo nolufikelelekayo.

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Iingongoma zichazwe ngokweenkcukacha kwiManifesto yeMozulu
ka-2020. Phakathi kwezinye izinto, iWerteUnion iyayichitha

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00:14:53,810 --> 00:15:01,611
ngokuqinileyo i-"Green Deal" kunye nokubekwa kwexabiso kwi-CO2
njengoko kuchaziwe kwi-"Federal Government's Climate Package".

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IManifesto yeMozulu ibongoza ukuba kupheliswe intsomi
yemozulu kwaye kuqalwe iphulo lemfundo ngemixholo

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00:15:07,654 --> 00:15:11,720
yemozulu, imijikelo yelanga kunye nekhabhoni dayokside.

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00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:18,480
Ulwazi oluthe vetshe ngale nto lunokufunyanwa
kwiManifesto yeMozulu ka-2020 yoMbutho weBavarian Values.

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00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:23,064
Kuphela ngoloyiko nokuxhaphaza uloyiko apho oosopolitiki
banokwenza abantu bathobele kwaye bamkele

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00:15:23,064 --> 00:15:28,096
imithetho. Isisongelo senhlekelele yemozulu
ngoku sisixhobo esisetyenziswayo ukufezekisa oku.

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00:15:28,096 --> 00:15:34,156
Noko ke, xa ixesha elitsha lokubanda okuncinci lingasayi
kuphikiswa kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo, kuza kubakho impendulo

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00:15:34,156 --> 00:15:40,860
enye kuphela ekufuneka inikwe 'iingcali zemozulu', oosopolitiki
bokufudumala kwehlabathi kunye neentatheli zepropaganda yemozulu:

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Ukuba ukhwaza ehlathini, kufuneka ukulungele nokuva isigxina,
nokuba sivakala ngokwahluke kwaphela. Prof. Dr. Werner Kirstein