We all know that numbers and statistics are not everyone's cup of tea.
Many are happy to leave the survey and analysis to experts and trust the results presented.
But you are not always well advised.
For example, in the case of the death figures published by the Federal Statistical Office during the coronavirus pandemic.
We all witnessed how the office announced a significant excess mortality rate after the outbreak of the crisis in 2020.
Fuelled by the media, it was clear to most people that the pandemic was claiming victims and that anyone
who wanted to protect themselves had to be immunized.
The fear generated had an effect!
The situation will be different in 2021 and 2022.
The large-scale campaign had achieved its goal.
The majority of the population was vaccinated.
According to official statements, there were no longer any irregularities in the mortality rates.
However, as the business information scientist Marcel Barz found out - an outright lie.
Quote: "What I see in the raw data on deaths is completely mirror image of what the public thinks, says Barz.
He painstakingly compared raw raw data and came up with astonishing results.
He discovered that, contrary to official statements, there was no excess mortality in 2020.
In the following two years, not only did an alarming number of people die, but also a strikingly large
number of men and women of middle and younger age groups.
For the first time, the death rate also showed a completely atypical course in relation to
the seasons that had never been seen before.
Marcel Barz shows the strange mistakes made by the authorities in dealing with the official figures.
How can it be, the author asked himself, that public communication deviates so far from the raw data?
Watch a summary of the video lecture now: The death rate in the raw data About this video... The official data from the Federal
Statistical Office show beyond doubt that there were thousands too many deaths too many in Germany in 2021 and
2022. Worse still, for the first time, the conspicuous death rate also affects younger age groups.
Why don't we see, hear or read about it in the media? What deadly danger has befallen our population? What role does the Federal
Statistical Office in Wiesbaden play? In this lecture, I will show the official death figures and the strange mistakes errors
that our authorities make when publishing these figures. We citizens are not being honestly informed about
the death rate. (Marcel Barz (Jüterbog, 20.11.2023))
My name is Marcel Barz, I am 48 years old. I come from the Berlin area, to be precise: from the small town of Jüterbog.
And I'm a qualified business IT specialist, which means I deal with data and numbers.
And because I always do it so precisely and do the math again, I've earned myself the
title of bean counter - which I'm quite proud of.
So, the topic is supposed to be: The death events in the raw data.
By raw data I mean unaltered data.
So, I don't look at ready-made press releases or graphics, but I get data packages, as detailed as I can get them,
and then start calculating totals and creating graphics etc. myself. So that's what I mean by raw data.
And when it comes to deaths, the question is: Have many or few people died in Germany?
So it's not just the number of people, but also an assessment of whether there were more than usual or fewer.
Nothing more - that is the question.
What I see in the raw death data is completely the opposite of what the public thinks.
And in concrete terms - i.e. the death rate in 2020 - the public opinion is that we had a
conspicuous death rate here because of the pandemic.
And I myself was convinced that this was the case in 2020. people's behavior - I
myself was afraid of dying, afraid of the virus.
But when I look at the raw data, I see exactly the opposite.
Not only do I not see any abnormalities in 2020, I actually see even historic lows in the number of deaths in 2020.
And the question is: How can there be such a wide gap between what can be seen in the
data data and what the public thinks about it?
That is my assertion.
But I will also explain this in detail now in the presentation.
Not only was it like that in 2020, but in 2022 - I'll take that as a second example example,
it's the other way around than the public thinks.
While the public opinion is that there are no longer any abnormalities in the number of deaths, and people's behavior is
the same: Normality, nobody talks about death rates anymore, we talk about Ukraine, we talk about Israel, there
are completely different topics, corona is so yesterday.
But when I look at the death rates, I now see these abnormalities, that many thought they saw
in 2020, I now see them in the death figures.
And the dramatic thing is that I also see these anomalies in the younger age groups.
I've never had patterns like this in the past.
But now I'm seeing a noticeable increase in deaths among the younger age groups.
And that is really dramatic.
And what is interesting is that if we now zoom in to the weekly level and this is the chart.
Now I haven't put the "spaghetti" on top of each other, so to speak, but one after the other, from 2011 to 2023, so to speak.
And I looked even further back, but I cut that off first so that you could see something.
And this blue zigzag line is now the mortality rate and only that of the 45 to 50 age group, i.e. my age group.
And we see a fairly constant pattern.
Yes, it sometimes breaks out at the top and sometimes at the bottom but it behaves relatively evenly.
Yes, always the same pattern:
In winter it is just a little higher and in summer it goes down a little it goes down again a little, then up again next winter.
And if we were to extend this to the left, it would always result in this pattern.
And now comes the worst pandemic of all time.
And it looks like this.
And at first glance, you say: That's actually the same as always.
The black line is the seasonal trend, so to speak.
And we are moving in the same direction in 2020 as in previous years.
We even had one outlier downwards, which is historic, so to speak.
But I don't see any noticeable pattern.
And now the years 21 and 22 have been added.
And that is a pattern that has never been seen in this age group in all the years before.
So we can clearly see that the blue line remains far above the black line, the black line
barely penetrates and large areas are created.
And that simply means that many young people have died here from some kind of danger out there that now needs to be investigated.
We have never had this mortality rate in this age group before.
A very clear alarm signal.
And I'm surprised that nothing is happening, because this pattern never existed before. And
it only points in one direction, namely upwards.
And let me take another age group.
Let's take a look at the 50- to 55-year-olds.
And we actually see the same picture.
Always similar spikes in the mortality rate.
And now comes the pandemic, 2020.
And we are actually seeing a below-average death rate in the 50 to 55 age group.
Yes, so other years were much better.
And now I'm showing the years 2021 and 2022.
And we see the same thing as in the other age group:
A very clear pattern, which far above the seasonal trend.
In other words, thousands of people have died here in the young age groups young age groups who,
statistically speaking, would not have had their turn yet.
It's a very clear alarm signal and I don't hear anything about it.
And the problem is that if you only look at the population as a whole, this alarm signal is is masked by the deaths of older
people, because the mortality rates there are simply much higher.
Then you can't see it at all.
You have to look at mortality rates and you have to look at them week by week and you have to look
at them per age cohort or small age group pictures.
And then this signal cannot be overlooked.
And since the Federal Statistical Office does this - looking at mortality rates week by week, as I showed in the
publication - I am surprised that this alarm signal is not made public, and that it is concealed from the public.
I now come to the conclusion:
I think I have been able to show why mortality rates are suitable for assessing death rates, because they are
because they are easy to understand for everyone and are therefore so well suited for public communication.
Because we have a feeling for what percentages mean 2%, 5%, we know that from everyday life.
And that's why I think we should look at mortality rates.
Mortality rates are objective data, they are facts, so to speak.
There is no calculation behind it, there is no model behind it, but this is how we measured it, this is how we observed it.
And mortality rates are available from the Federal Statistical Office.
And just because they are not published does not mean that they are not there.
So we should demand the mortality rates from the Federal Statistical Office.
And the reason why the public had the wrong picture of the death rate in 2020 is simply because the Federal Statistical Federal
Statistical Office chose the wrong key figures for public communication, namely death rates and excess mortality rates.
Yes, I think I have explained quite well that mortality figures distort the picture when the population
population changes, i.e. when the population gets bigger and when the population gets older.
And with excess mortality values, if they are calculated using a questionable method such as this median method, then
they also result in inflated values for an ageing population.
And if we only ever communicate these two key figures, which is what the Federal Statistical Office does,
then it's no wonder that a false impression is created.
Yes, and that alone is actually already a scandal, that an entire country is being is being panicked
without any basis, without any foundation in the raw data.
But what we are now experiencing in 2022, that we are not hearing this conspicuous pattern at all from the cohorts at all from
the Federal Statistical Office, I think that's almost criminal.
Because when I see these anomalies here, the Federal Statistical Office also sees them.
And that you don't hear anything, that raises a lot of questions.
Because if the Federal Statistical Office were to say: Hello, here is a
conspicuousness, then that would have an impact on policy.
I don't understand why you don't hear anything.
Because the public relations work that the office did in 2020, yes, with the press, conferences and so on and all this
all this alarmism would now have a real basis in the data and you hear nothing from the Federal Statistical Office.
So there is an urgent need for clarification here.
And as I said, I would ask for support to ensure that those responsible are called to account and
that we see the mortality rates of young people.
Well, that concludes my remarks.
Thank you for your attention and I wish you all the best.
Do it well, Yours, Marcel Barz.