WEBVTT

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Ngomhla woku-1 kuMatshi, abantu abaninzi baphinde
bangena ezitalatweni ngenxa yokuxhalaba ngemozulu.

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Unobangela wokwanda kweembalela,
ubushushu obude, izikhukula, ukufa kwemithi,

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Abantu abaninzi bathi ukuphela kweentlobo zezinto
eziphilayo nezinye iingxaki kubangelwa kukufudumala

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kwehlabathi okubangelwa kukukhutshwa kwe-CO2 okugqithisileyo.

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Ezinye izizathu zithiwa azikho
ngenxa yokuba azisekelwanga kwisayensi.

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Kukho isivumelwano esingama-97% phakathi
kwezazinzulu sokuba utshintsho lwemozulu lubangelwa yi-CO2.

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Kodwa eli nani livela phi?

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Apha ngezantsi ungabona inguqulelo
emfutshane yenkqubo i-97% Agreement.

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phakathi kwenzululwazi malunga nokutshintsha
kwemozulu okubangelwe ngabantu – yinyani okanye yintsomi?

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1. Ukujonga ngokusondeleyo uhlalutyo
lwamaphepha ezinzululwazi ngotshintsho lwemozulu

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olubangelwa ngabantu, olwenziwe nguJohn Cook nabanye.

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Umsebenzi ekuthethwa ngawo
yi-Quantifying the Consensus on Anthropogenic

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Ukufudumala kweHlabathi kwizifundo
zenzululwazi nezokusingqongileyo.

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ngumcwaningi wezengqondo uJohn Cook ukusukela ngo-2013.

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Oku kuthiwa yi-meta-analysis.

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UKook noogxa bakhe bahlalutye izifundo
ezili-11,944 malunga nemozulu

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nokusingqongileyo ukusukela ngo-1991 ukuza kuthi ga ngoku.

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kude kube ngo-2011, kuye kwaphononongwa ukuba ababhali
babetyhola abantu ngotshintsho lwemozulu na okanye hayi.

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Ngenxa yoko, uCook wathi i-97% yezifundo namaphepha
ziyavuma ukuba abantu banoxanduva ngayo yonke into.

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Inyaniso, nangona kunjalo, yeyokuba
kuphela i-0.54% yemisebenzi ekoluvo lokuba

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ukuba abantu banetyala ubuncinane nge-50% ngotshintsho lwemozulu.

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UJohn Cook angafikelela njani
kwisiphumo sokuvumelana esimalunga nama-97%?

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Kaloku, yena ngokwakhe wabhala kusishwankathelo
soluhlalutyo lwakhe, ekuthiwa yi-abstract, ukuba

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Kuzo zonke izifundo eziye zaphononongwa,
i-66.4% bezingenayo kwaphela ingxelo malunga

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nethiyori yokutshintsha kwemozulu okubangelwe ngabantu.

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Uhlalutyo olunzulu lophando lwakhe lutyhila ukuba

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Ukwahlulahlulwa kukaCook kwakukho ubuqhophololo.

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Ngokusekelwe kwimbuzo yokuba ingaba iqulethe iingxelo ezing

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Umsebenzi wesidanga ngotshintsho
lwemozulu olwenziwe ngabantu ungenisiwe.

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UKook noogxa bakhe bahlela imisebenzi
ephantse ibe yi-12,000 yaba yizigaba ezisixhenxe.

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ICandelo loku-1 lithe abantu banoxanduva
olungaphezulu kwe-50% kutshintsho lwemozulu.

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Nangona icandelo lesi-2 lathatha
abantu benoxanduva, alizange licacise.

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kodwa hayi ngendlela abantu
abanempembelelo ngayo enamandla kwimozulu.

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Ikhathego yesi-3 yenza abantu baba noxanduva, nangona kancinci.

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Icandelo lesi-4 alithethanga ngempembelelo yabantu kwimozulu.

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Icandelo lesi-5 belithanda ukuphikisa impembelelo yomntu.

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Ikhathego yesi-6 yayichasene ngakumbi nempembelelo yabantu.

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ICategory 7 ibanga ichasa impembelelo
yabantu, isithi impembelelo yabantu

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ingaphantsi kwe-50%. Ngoko ke ungabona ukuba
kufanele kubekho iindidi ezintathu kuphela.

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Udidi A: abantu banoxanduva olungaphezulu kwe-50%.

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Udidi B, akukho lwazi ngempembelelo yabantu.

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Udidi C: umntu unoxanduva olungaphantsi kwe-50%.

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Udidi D: umntu unoxanduva olungaphantsi kwe-50%.

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Ukuba akunakufunyanwa kumsebenzi,

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Nokuba impembelelo yabantu ingaphezulu okanye ingaphantsi kwe-50%

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bubuxoki, ke olu phononongo alenzi ingxelo ecacileyo.

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kwaye eneneni ikwicandelo elithi "akukho lwazi olunikiweyo".

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Njengoko iindidi ezine eziseleyo zingenazo iipesenti
ezicacileyo, yonke imisebenzi ingabandakanywa apha.

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Bacwangcisa izinto ngendlela ebathandayo
ngamazwi angacacanga, nto leyo evula ithuba lokuqhatha.

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Kodwa ke ngoku masijikele kwiziphumo nakwiqhinga lezibalo.

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eyayilingana no-0.54%, ekugqibeleni ifikelela kuma-97%.

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Nali idatha ekrwada evela kuphando lwe-KUK,
engabandakanywanga kwi-meta-analysis ye-KUK.

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Kufuneka uqale uzihlanganise ngenyameko.

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Udidi 1, imisebenzi engama-64, oko kukuthi i-0.54%.

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Udidi lwesi-2, imisebenzi engama-922, oko kukuthi i-7.72%.

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Udidi lwesi-3, imisebenzi engama-2,910, oko kukuthi i-24.36%.

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Udidi lwesi-4, imisebenzi engama-7,970, okanye i-66.73%.

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Udidi lwesi-5, imisebenzi engama-54,
oko kukuthi i-0.45%. Udidi lwesi-6,

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15 iimveliso, oko kukuthi 0.13%. Udidi
lwesi-7, 9 iimveliso, oko kukuthi 0.08%.

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KUK Funda nje, yityeshele zonke izifundo ezingabinayo intetho.

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Kwaye oko yayikukusixhenxe samawaka namakhulu asixhenxe
namashumi asixhenxe (7,970) kwisixa esipheleleyo

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esiyi-11,944, okanye isibini kwezithathu zazo zonke iingcandelo.

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Ngoko ke uCook eneneni usebenze
kwisithathu esinye kuphela sazo zonke iinkcukacha.

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Kodwa ke, kusekho kuphela ezingama-64
kwezophando ezingama-3,974 eziseleyo.

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Uyakholelwa ukuba abantu banoxanduva
olungaphezulu kwama-50 ekhulwini ngotshintsho lwemozulu.

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UKook waza wadibanisa iindidi yoku-1, 2
neyesi-3 zaba yeyona enye waza wayibiza ngokuba

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esi sivumelwano, nangona sasinamanqanaba ahlukeneyo okuvumelana.

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Ukusuka kwi-ewe enomlinganiselo ongaphezu
kwama-50 ekhulwini, ukuya kwi-ewe engenalo inani

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elichaziweyo, ukuya kwi-ewe eqondwayo ngokungathethiyo.

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Loo nto ibiya kuba yisixa
esipheleleyo somsebenzi wama-3,896 osola abantu.

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Kwaye imisebenzi engama-78 ehlelwe
kwiindidi 5 ukuya kweyesi-7 iyaphikisana noku.

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Nangona kunjalo, oku kuphela kufikelela
kwipesenti encinci kakhulu xa iyonke.

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Oku kukhokelela kwimisebenzi engama-3,896 evunyiweyo.

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Kuzo zonke iintsebenzo eziseleyo eziyi-3,974.

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Kwaye oko kwenza i-97 pesenti.

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Ekuqaleni, kuphela izifundo ezingama-64 ezazino

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Ukuvakalisa ukuba uyavumelana nethiyori
yokutshintsha kwemozulu okubangelwa ngabantu.

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Kwaye oko kwakungu-0.54 pesenti.

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2. Isaqhwithi sentswelo

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Kuluntu lwezenzululwazi

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Ngenxa yokuphathwa kweenani ngobuqhetseba
obungaka, kwabakho isikhalo esikhulu kwi

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Isidubedube sokucaphuka kuluntu lwezenzululwazi.

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Iwebhusayithi climatesite.com

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kuqokelelwe iyonke yamanqaku angama-97, iingxelo zamajelo eendaba
kunye nezithuba zebhlog ezigxeke kakhulu uhlalutyo lukaCook.

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Ucaphulo: Ngezantsi uza kufumana uluhlu lwe

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Amanqaku angama-97 acwangciswe kakubi nguCooks,

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Ukuphikiswa kophando lwe-97 pesenti
oluyilwe kakubi kwaye lwenziwe kakubi.

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Into yokuba nabani na aqhubeke nokusasaza
ububhanxa obunjalo obugxathisiwe ngokupheleleyo.

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Njengoko uphando lukaCook lubonisa, oku lihlazo kwisayensi.

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Nabani na ojoyina le ngxoxo kuluntu lwezenzululwazi

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Ukuba ungathanda ukufunda ngakumbi, uya
kufumana ikhonkco ekupheleni kwenkqubo.

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Kunjalo nakuzo zonke ezinye iimvelaphi ezikhankanyiweyo.

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Apha ngezantsi kukho imizekelo embalwa nje yamanqaku obugxeki.

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Kwango-21 Meyi 2013, iintsuku ezisibhozo emva kokupapashwa

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Uhlalutyo lukaCook lwavela
kwiwebhusayithi i-populartechnology.net.

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Inqaku elineentetho ezivela kwiingcali ezininzi zenzululwazi,

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abafundi babo basetyenziswe kuhlalutyo lukaCook.

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Bathi imisebenzi yabo ibekwe kwiindidi ezingezizo.

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Nazi imizekelo emibini:

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Ujografi uGqr. Craig D. Eizo, uSihlalo weZiko
loFundo ngeKhabhoni Dayokside noTshintsho lweHlabathi,

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ubhala, Kungangempela ukuthi iphephandaba lethu
lixhasa ukufudumala kwehlabathi okubangelwa yi-CO2.

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UGqr. Nils Axel Morner, unjingalwazi othathe
umhlalaphantsi wepaleojiyofiziksi nejiyodinamiksi kwi-

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IYunivesithi yaseStockholm, isabela kumbuzo,
ingaba lo ngumfanekiso ochanekileyo womsebenzi wakho?

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Ngokuqinisekileyo akuchanekanga
kwaye ngokuqinisekileyo kuyalahlekisa.

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Umbhali webhlogi yenzululwazi u-Anthony Warts unike ingxelo.

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Malunga nophando olukhankanywe ngasentla lukaGqr. Lee

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UGates, othetha ngomsebenzi kaCook ngolu hlobo,

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Kuyamangalisa ukuba nayiphi na iphephancwadi ingapapasha i

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kupapashwe isifundo apho i

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Kuthiwa kufikelelwe kwisivumelwano se-97 pesenti xa i

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Ngokohlalutyo lwembhali ngokwakhe,
isivumelwano sokwenene sasingaphantsi kwepesenti enye.

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Unjingalwazi waseDatshi wezoqoqosho
lwemozulu uRichard Toll, owayesakuba

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Owayesakuba ngumsebenzi waza waba ngumgxeki we-IPCC,
i-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ugxeka uCooks.

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Umsebenzi nawo unzima kwaye ugxininisa ukuba nkqu nokukhethwa kwe

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Amagama okukhangela emisebenzi
yenzululwazi ebalulekileyo ayizange ifakwe.

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Ngaphezu koko, uToll akakwazi
ukuqonda ukuba kwimibutho eyi-122 awonke-nke

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Kwiphephandaba elapapashwa ngexesha
elisayinwe nguCook, kukhethwe kuphela ishumi.

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Ezintlanu zezi zinto zilishumi
ezikhethiweyo nazo zahlulwa ngokungachanekanga.

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Ewe kunjalo, njengegalelo elixhasa utshintsho
lwemozulu olubangelwe ngabantu, hayi njenge

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abo bayibuzisayo, nto leyo kanye eyenziwa yiminikelo kaToll.

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Ewe, kwelinye icala, wenza intengiso enobundlongondlongo
kwaye unolwazi malunga nokuphuculwa kweenjini zokukhangela.

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Into yokuba uMongameli uBarack Obama ukhankanyiwe
kumaphepha ezazinzulu amaninzi, kuyo yonke into,

09:41.619 --> 09:47.620
Uphando lukaCook, olucatshulwe kwi-tweet kusuku
nje olunye emva kokupapashwa kwalo, luyazithethela.

09:47.620 --> 09:54.597
U-Obama utwite ngomhla we-16 kuMeyi 2013 ukuba i-97
pesenti yezazinzulu ziyavuma ukuba utshintsho

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lwemozulu luyinyani, lwenzelwe ngabantu kwaye lunobungozi.

09:59.540 --> 10:03.538
Ngokwenza njalo, waba ngathi udlala
umdlalo wokuxoxa ngokuvulelayo, masithi,

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waza waphoswa nje lulwazi olubalulekileyo.

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Kwipesenti ezingama-97
zezenzululwazi ezaveze uluvo lwazo konke konke

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Ngokuka-Obama, i-97% yazo zonke izazinzulu yayixhasa oku.

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Sikhumbula ukuba, eneneni, yi-33.6%
kuphela yabo baphendlisisiwe nguCook.

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Izifundo azikaze zenze ingxelo malunga
notshintsho lwemozulu olubangelwe ngabantu.

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Ukuba ngoku siyayityeshela le
66.4% iseleyo size sithathe le 33.6%

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kunabantu abangaphezu kwe-100% abangenise izimvo zabo, ke

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Kwaba, i-97% ivumile ukuba utshintsho
lwemozulu mhlawumbi lwenziwe ngabantu.

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Okanye isenokuba yenziwe ngabantu.

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Inxalenye yayo yenziwe ngumntu iba yiyo yonke yenziwe ngumntu.

10:57.020 --> 11:00.060
Kuvakala ngathi yinto eyenziwe ngabantu ngekhulu lepesenti.

11:00.060 --> 11:03.740
Kwaye akukho nasiphi na isingxelo sengingozi kwiphando likaCook.

11:03.740 --> 11:05.780
U-Obama wayila loo nto.

11:05.780 --> 11:09.225
Kubonakala ngathi uCook noogxa bakhe
benza konke okusemandleni abo ukuze

11:09.225 --> 11:13.500
Kuzanywe ukufezekisa isiphumo esithile
esicwangcisiweyo ngokusebenzisa amanyathelo athile.

11:13.500 --> 11:18.628
Kwaye ngokwenene, kwasekuqaleni ngoMatshi
ka-2012, oko kukuthi, kwanaphambi kokupapashwa kwe

11:18.628 --> 11:23.162
Ukusuka kuhlalutyo-jikelele
lukaCook, izicwangciso zentengiso ezibanzi

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ngeenkcazelo ezikhutshwayo kumaphephandaba, amajelo eendaba
aphambili, abathumeli beendaba zemozulu, ababhali beebhlogi,

11:29.733 --> 11:33.040
imibutho yemozulu, iGoogle, iividiyo zeYouTube nokunye.

11:33.040 --> 11:36.760
Ungayicwangcisa njani intengiso ngelixa umsebenzi usaqhubeka?

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Kwaye inyani?

11:38.260 --> 11:42.328
Into yokuba uCook ebesebenzisa iblogi yakhe
yokulwela imeko-bume ukusukela ngo-2007 ithetha lukhulu.

11:42.328 --> 11:46.640
ukuba isiphumo sophando lwakhe sasele simiselwe kwangaphambili.

11:46.640 --> 11:53.220
Ubhale ngokungajijiyo kwiforam yakhe
ukuba sihlala siqhwaba ingoma yokuvumelana.

11:53.220 --> 12:00.960
Ngoku kuvela umbuzo: ngubani onomdla
wokuhlala eshaya ingoma yokuvumelana rhoqo?

12:00.960 --> 12:05.944
Ingaba mhlawumbi oku kujolise ekuphazamiseni ingqwalasela
kwezinye izizathu zeengxaki ezibonakalayo zokusingqongileyo?

12:05.944 --> 12:11.000
Ukuba i-CO2 ayiyiyo ingxaki,

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Ukuba ninikele ngokwenene ekubuyiseleni imeko-bume yethu,

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Yintoni ke?

12:14.393 --> 12:18.343
Ukuba ikufuphi nentliziyo yakho, musa ukukhuphela ngaphandle
naziphi na iithiyori, zihlolisise ngokuvulekileyo kwaye

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ngaphandle kokuthatha cala, kunye
nezimvo zezinye izazinzulu ezininzi,

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abachasa i-CO2 njengesona sizathu
siphambili sokutshintsha kwemozulu.

12:26.940 --> 12:30.323
Kuhlobo olude lwale nkqubo, uza kufumana
ulwazi olubalulekileyo ngalo mbandela.

12:30.323 --> 12:34.420
Izimangalo, oko kukuthi, iingxelo
ezidibeneyo zezazi zemozulu ezingamawaka.

12:34.420 --> 12:38.750
Kweminye imiboniso bhanyabhanya ye-Kla TV, uza kufumana

12:38.750 --> 12:44.000
Ukuqonda ngezinye izizathu ezinokubangela
ukonakaliswa kwendalo kunye neemeko zemozulu eziyintlekele.

12:44.000 --> 12:50.780
Umzekelo, umkhosi kudala unofikelelo kwiitekhnoloji
ezingazange zibhengezwe kakhulu zokuphembelela imozulu.

12:50.780 --> 12:57.820
Ukususela ngo-2005 ukuya ku-2008, iingxelo ezigxekayo ngalo
mba zazisele zisasazwa kumabonakude karhulumente waseJamani.

12:57.820 --> 13:00.800
Kunzima ukuzicinga ezi zinto kwixesha lethu.

13:00.800 --> 13:04.480
Nceda ubukele le nkqubo ilandelayo.

13:08.220 --> 13:11.000
Kutheni uthe cwaka

13:11.000 --> 13:12.500
Ezopolitiko kunye namajelo eendaba

13:12.500 --> 13:13.500
Iinkcukacha ezilandelayo?

13:13.500 --> 13:17.600
1. I-oyile ye-NATO kwiinqwelomoya
zethu iyayichaphazela kakubi imozulu.

13:17.600 --> 13:20.600
Ibiqulethe ialuminiyam, ibharium, ibherili, neplumbi,

13:20.600 --> 13:24.157
Icadmium, ikhromiyam, ikobhalti, intsimbi, ibhasi, imolibdenam,

13:24.157 --> 13:31.140
Ifunyenwe iSodium, iNickel, iStrontium, iTitanium,
iManidium, iZinc kunye neTin kunye nee-oxide zazo.

13:31.140 --> 13:31.820
Okwesibini.

13:31.820 --> 13:34.220
Akukho kulawulwa kwemozulu.

13:34.220 --> 13:38.772
Ngo-1978, i-UN yamkela isivumelwano
se-UN esikwalela ukusetyenziswa kwe

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ngokulawulwa kwemozulu nobuchwepheshe obutshintsha indalo.

13:44.000 --> 13:45.020
Okwesithathu

13:45.020 --> 13:50.340
Kukho iipatenti ezimalunga nesithuba
sekhulu zobuchwepheshe bokulawula imozulu.

13:50.340 --> 13:55.700
Lezi zisuka ku-1892.

13:55.700 --> 13:56.900
Okwesine

13:56.900 --> 14:03.220
Iisequoia ezinkulu zaseCalifornia zineminyaka
efikelela kuma-3,000 ubudala kwaye ngoku zisweleka ngesiquphe.

14:03.220 --> 14:04.100
Okwesihlanu.

14:04.100 --> 14:07.660
Imithi ye-Sequoia yayisele isetyenziswa
eCalifornia ukusukela ngo-1947 ukuya ku-1978.

14:07.660 --> 14:07.660
Okwesibini.

14:07.660 --> 14:15.520
Iinkqubo ezili-110 zokulawulwa kwemozulu
zathiwaniswa kwaye zamkelwa yiNkongolo yaseMelika.

14:15.520 --> 14:16.680
Okwesithandathu.

14:16.680 --> 14:23.720
Uxwebhu lwe-US Air Force luka-1996 luthi
siza kulawula imozulu ngonyaka ka-2025.

14:23.720 --> 14:31.480
Olu xwebhu luchaza indlela yokwenzakalisa utshaba
nokunceda abahlobo bakho ngokuphembelela imozulu.

14:31.480 --> 14:32.300
Esesixhenxe

14:32.300 --> 14:37.086
Ipatenti yaseMelika 4686605 ichaza ngokweenkcukacha
indlela ukulawulwa kwemozulu okunokusetyenziswa ngayo uku

14:37.086 --> 14:42.600
Izixhobo ze-HAARP zinokudala ubushushu nemililo yehlathi.

14:42.600 --> 14:44.040
Okwesibhozo

14:44.040 --> 14:45.080
IHAARP yomkhosi

14:45.080 --> 14:49.952
Izityalo kwihlabathi jikelele zinokuchatshazelwa yinyikima,
imbalela, izaqhwithi kunye nezikhukula nangaliphi na ixesha.

14:49.952 --> 14:55.280
kubangele kwaye, kunye nezigidi zeetoni
ze-nano-cocktails, kwanazo neetsunami ezipheleleyo.

14:55.280 --> 14:56.800
Awukhe weva ngayo?

14:56.800 --> 15:02.620
Musa ukuzivumela ukuba uphazanyiswe
ngabatshabalalisi abakhulu bendalo abavela kwicandelo lomkhosi.

15:02.620 --> 15:05.142
Zenzele uphando lwakho ukuze ufumanise ukuba ngubani kanye kanye

15:05.142 --> 15:07.660
Abo batshabalalisa indalo kunye nabo
benza inzuzo enkulu kwingxaki yemozulu.

15:07.660 --> 15:15.640
Kuphela xa abantu bebona umfanekiso opheleleyo,
apho indalo yethu inokukhuselwa ngokufanelekileyo.