WEBVTT

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Ngo-1 Mashi, abantu abaningi baphinde baphuma
emigwaqweni ngenxa yokukhathazeka ngesimo sezulu.

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Isizathu sokwanda kwezomisa, ukushisa
okungapheli, izikhukhula, nokufa kwamahlathi,

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Abantu abaningi babheka ukushabalala
kwezinhlobo zezilwane nezinye izinkinga ekushiseni

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komhlaba okubangelwa ukukhishwa ngokweqile kwe-CO2.

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Ezinye izimbangela zingavunyelwa
kakhulu ngoba azisekho ngokwesayensi.

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Kukhona ukuvumelana okungu-97% phakathi kososayensi
ukuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kubangelwa yi-CO2.

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Kodwa le nombolo ivela kuphi?

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Ngezansi ungabona inguqulo efingqiwe yohlelo i-97% Agreement.

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phakathi kososayensi ngokuguquka kwesimo
sezulu okubangelwa abantu – iqiniso noma ubuqili?

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Ukubuka okusondele ekuhlaziyweni kwemibhalo
yesayensi mayelana nokuguquka kwesimo sezulu

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okubangelwa abantu okwenziwe nguJohn Cook nabanye.

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Umsebenzi okukhulunywa ngawo uwukulinganisa
ukuvumelana mayelana nokubangelwa ngabantu

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Ukufudumala Komhlaba Ezifundweni Zesayensi Nezemvelo

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ngumcwaningi wezengqondo ocabangayo uJohn Cook kusukela ngo-2013.

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Okubizwa ngokuthi i-meta-analysis.

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UKook nabalingani bakhe bahlaziye izifundo eziyi-11,944
mayelana nesimo sezulu nemvelo kusukela ngo-1991 kuqhubeke.

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kuze kube ngo-2011, kwahlolwa ukuthi ababhali
babebeka abantu icala ngokushintsha kwesimo sezulu noma cha.

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Ngenxa yalokho, uCook wethula ukuthi
amaphesenti angama-97 ocwaningo namaphepha bavuma

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ukuthi abantu babezibophezele kukho konke.

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Iqiniso, nokho, ukuthi kuphela
u-0.54% wemisebenzi abanolwazi lokuthi

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Abantu banesibopho okungenani
esingu-50% ekushintsheni kwesimo sezulu.

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UJohn Cook angafinyelela kanjani
emiphumeleni yokuvumelana cishe engu-97%?

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Phela, yena uqobo wabhala esifinyezweni
sokuhlaziywa kwakhe, okubizwa ngokuthi i-abstract, ukuthi

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Kuzo zonke izifundo ezihlolwe, ama-66.4%
awazange athi lutho ngomqondo wokuthi

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ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kwenzeka ngenxa yomuntu.

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Ukuhlaziywa okujulile kocwaningo lwakhe kuveza ukuthi

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Ukwahlukaniswa kukaCook kwakugqugquzelwa ngenhloso yokukhohlisa.

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Kususelwa embuzweni wokuthi ingabe
iqukethe izitatimende mayelana no

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Isihloko sesidijithali ngokuguquka
kwesimo sezulu okubangelwa abantu esethunyelwe

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uCook nabalingani bakhe bahlela cishe
imisebenzi engu-12 000 zaba yizigaba eziyisikhombisa.

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Isigaba 1 sathi abantu banomthwalo
ongaphezu kuka-50% ekushintsheni kwesimo sezulu.

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Nakuba isigaba sesi-2 sabeka abantu
icala, asizange sichaze ngokucacile.

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kodwa hhayi ngokuthi abantu bathonya kangakanani isimo sezulu.

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Isigaba sesi-3 senze abantu babe
nomthwalo wemfanelo okungenani kancane.

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Isigaba sesi-4 asizange siphawule
ngomthelela wabantu esimweni sezulu.

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Izigaba zesi-5 zazivame ukuphikisa umthelela wabantu.

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Isigaba sesi-6 sasiphikisana
kancane ngokucacile nomthelela wabantu.

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Isigaba sesi-7 siphikise umthelela
wabantu, sithi umthelela wabantu

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kungaphansi kuka-50%. Ngakho-ke ungabona ukuthi
empeleni kufanele kube nezigaba ezintathu kuphela.

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Ikhathegori A: abantu banomthwalo wemfanelo ongaphezu kuka-50%.

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Ikhathego B, akukho ulwazi ngomthelela wabantu.

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Isigaba C: umuntu unesibopho esingaphansi kuka-50%.

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Isigaba D: umuntu unesibopho esingaphansi kuka-50%.

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Uma kungeke kuxhomekeke emsebenzini,

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noma umthelela wabantu ungaphezu noma ungaphansi kuka-50%

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amanga, khona-ke lolu cwaningo alenzi isitatimende esicacile.

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futhi empeleni ifanele isigaba
esithi "akukho ulwazi olunikeziwe".

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Njengoba izigaba ezine ezisele zingenawo
amaphesenti acacile, yonke imisebenzi ingafakwa lapha.

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Bahlela izinto ngendlela abathanda ngayo ngezitatimende
ezingacacile, okuvulela umnyango ekuphathweni ngobuqili.

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Kodwa manje ake sibheke imiphumela namacebo ezibalo.

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okwakuyi-0.54%, ekugcineni yafinyelela ku-97%.

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Nansi idatha eluhlaza evela ocwaningweni
lwe-KUK, engafakiwe ekuhlaziyweni kwe-meta kwe-KUK.

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Kufanele ubaqoqa ngokucophelela kuqala.

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Isigaba 1, imisebenzi engu-64, okusho ukuthi ingu-0.54%.

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Isigaba sesi-2, imisebenzi engu-922, okusho ukuthi ingu-7.72%.

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Isigaba 3, imisebenzi engu-2,910, okusho ukuthi ingu-24.36%.

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Isigaba 4, imisebenzi engu-7,970, noma u-66.73%.

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Izigaba 5, imisebenzi engu-54,
okusho ukuthi ingu-0.45%. Izigaba 6,

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Imisebenzi engu-15, okusho ukuthi ingu-0.13%. Isigaba
sesi-7, imisebenzi engu-9, okusho ukuthi ingu-0.08%.

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KUK Funda nje, ungazinaki zonke
izifundo ezingakaze zibe nesitatimende.

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Futhi lokho kwakungu-7,970 kwezingu-11,944 zonke,
noma izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zomsebenzi wonke.

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Ngakho-ke uCook empeleni usebenzise kuphela
ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yedatha yonke.

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Kodwa noma kunjalo, kusasele kuphela
izingu-64 kwezingu-3,974 zocwaningo olusele.

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ukholelwa ukuthi abantu banomthwalo ongaphezu
kuka-50 ekhulwini ekushintsheni kwesimo sezulu.

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U-Cook wabe esehlanganisa izigaba
1, 2 no 3 zaba eyodwa wathi kuyo

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lesi sivumelwano, nakuba
sasingenazo izinga ezihlukene zokuvumelana.

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Kusuka ku-yebo enezabelo ezingaphezu kuka-50% kuya
ku-yebo engenalo inani elichaziwe kuya ku-yebo ecashile.

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Lokho kungaba inani eliphelele
lemisebenzi engu-3,896 ebeka abantu icala.

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Futhi imisebenzi engu-78 ehlukaniswe
ezigabeni 5 kuya ku-7 iphikisana nalokhu.

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Nokho, lokhu kufinyelela kuphela ekubeni
iphesenti elincane kakhulu konke konke.

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Lokhu kuholela emisebenzini engu-3,896 evunyiwe.

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Kusukela enanini eliphelele lemisebenzi engu-3,974 eseleyo.

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Futhi lokho kufinyelela ku-97 ekhulwini.

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Ekuqaleni, izifundo ezingama-64 kuphela ezaqukethe i

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Ukuvuma ngokusobala ithiyori
yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu okubangelwa abantu.

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Futhi lokho kwakungu-0.54%

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2. Isivunguvungu sokucasuka

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Emphakathini wesayensi

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Ngenxa yokuphathwa ngokungahloniphi
kwezibalo okunjalo, kwavela ukukhala okukhulu ku-

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Isivunguvungu sokucasuka emphakathini wezesayensi.

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Iwebhusayithi climatesite.com

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kuqoqwe konke konke izihloko ezingama-97, imibiko yezindaba
nezibhalo zebhulogi ezigxeka kakhulu ukuhlaziywa kukaCook.

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Okucashunwe: Ngezansi uzothola uhlu lwe

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97 izihloko ezacwangciswa kabi nguCooks

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Yakhelwe kabi futhi yaqhutshwa kabi,
ucwaningo lokuvumelana lwama-97% luyaphikisa.

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Iqiniso lokuthi noma ubani uyaqhubeka
nokuthengisa lezi zinto ezingamanga eziphikwe ngokuphelele

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Njengoba ucwaningo lukaCook
lukhombisa, lokhu kuyihlazo kwisayensi.

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Noma ubani ojoyina le ngxoxo emphakathini wesayensi

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Uma ungathanda ukufunda kabanzi,
uzothola isixhumanisi ekupheleni kohlelo.

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Kuyafana nakuzo zonke ezinye izinsiza ezishiwo.

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Ngezansi kunezibonelo ezimbalwa kuphela zezindatshana ezibucayi.

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Sekuyi-21 Meyi 2013, izinsuku
eziyisishiyagalombili emva kokushicilelwa

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Ukuhlaziywa kukaCook kwavela
kuwebhusayithi ethi populartechnology.net.

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indatshana enezitatimende ezivela kososayensi abaningana

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abacwaningo babo basetshenziswe ekuhlaziyweni kukaCook.

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Bathi imisebenzi yabo ibekwe ezigabeni ezingalungile.

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Nazi izibonelo ezimbili:

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Isazi sezindawo uDkt. Craig D. Eizo, uSihlalo weSikhungo
Sokutadisha iCarbon Dioxide Nokushintsha Komhlaba Wonke,

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ubhala, bekungalungile ukusho ukuthi iphepha lethu
liyasekela ukufudumala komhlaba okubangelwa yi-CO2.

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UDkt. Nils Axel Morner, uprofesa osephumile
emkhakheni we-paleogeophysics ne-geodynamics e-

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IYunivesithi yaseStockholm, ephendula umbuzo othi:
ingabe lokhu kuyimelela ngokunembile umsebenzi wakho?

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Impela akulona iqiniso futhi impela kuyadukisa.

08:18.220 --> 08:21.335
Umbhulogi wesayensi u-Anthony Warts ubike

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Mayelana nocwaningo okukhulunywe ngakho ngenhla nguDkt. Lee

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UGates, owaphawula ngomsebenzi kaCook kanje,

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Kuyamangaza ukuthi noma yiliphi iphephabhuku lingashicilela i

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washicilela ucwaningo lapho i

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Kuthiwa kunokuvumelana okungu-97 ekhulwini lapho i-

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Ngokohlaziyo lomlobi uqobo, isivumelwano
sangempela sasiphansi kwephesenti elilodwa.

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Uprofesa waseNetherlands wezomnotho wezulu, uRichard Toll, owake

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Owake wasebenza futhi waba umsoli
we-IPCC, iPhaneli Yeziphathimandla

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Zikahulumeni Ngokushintsha Kwezulu, usola uCooks.

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Umsebenzi nawo unzima kakhulu futhi
ugcizelela ukuthi ngisho nokukhethwa kwe

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Amagama okusesha emisebenzini
yesayensi ezibalulekile awazange afakwe.

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Ngaphezu kwalokho, uToll uthola
kungaqondakali ukuthi kwezibonelelo eziyi-122 yena uqobo

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Okushicilelwe ngaleso sikhathi esisayinwe
nguCook, kwakukhethwe kuphela eziyishumi.

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Ezinhlanu kulezi zisebenzi eziyishumi
ezikhethiwe nazo zahlukaniswa ngokungalungile.

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Nakanjani, njengeminikelo esekela ukuguquka
kwesimo sezulu okubangelwa abantu, hhayi njenge

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lababo abayibuza, okuyikho ngempela
okwenziwa yiziphakamiso zikaToll.

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Hhayi-ke, ngakolunye uhlangothi, wenza ukumaketha okuqinile
futhi unolwazi ngokwenza izinjini zokusesha zisebenze kahle.

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Iqiniso lokuthi uMongameli uBarack Obama ushicilelwe
emaphepheni ezesayensi amaningi, ngaphezu kwazo zonke izinto,

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Ucwaningo lukaCook, olukhulunywe ngalo ku-tweet ngosuku
olulodwa nje emva kokushicilelwa kwalo, lukhuluma ngokwalo.

09:47.620 --> 09:54.819
Obama wabhala ku-Twitter ngomhlaka 16 Meyi 2013 ukuthi
amaphesenti angama-97 ososayensi bavuma ukuthi ukuguquka

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kwesimo sezulu kuyiqiniso, kwenziwa ngabantu futhi kuyingozi.

09:59.540 --> 10:05.780
Ngokwenza kanjalo, wadlala umdlalo wokudlulisa amazwi
ngomlomo, njengokuthi, futhi waphuthelwa ulwazi olubalulekile.

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Kwabangu-97 ekhulwini kososayensi abaveze umbono ngempela

10:11.472 --> 10:16.760
Ngokuka-Obama, amaphesenti
angama-97 azo zonke izazi zazisekela lokhu.

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Sikhumbula ukuthi, empeleni,
kuphela u-33.6% kwababuzwayo nguCook.

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Izifundo zake zenza isimemezelo
ngokuguquka kwesimo sezulu okubangelwa abantu.

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Uma manje singanaki ama-66.4% asele futhi sithathe le 33.6%

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kunango-100% walabo abathumele amazwana, khona-ke

10:39.397 --> 10:45.875
Kulawa, amaphesenti angama-97 avumile ukuthi
ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kungenzeka ukuthi

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kwenzeka kakhulu noma kancane ngenxa yomuntu.

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Noma kungaba okwenziwe ngabantu.

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Okwenzwe ngabantu ngokwengxenye
kuba okwenzwe ngabantu ngokuphelele.

10:57.020 --> 11:00.060
Kuzwakala sengathi kwenziwe ngabantu ngokuphelele.

11:00.060 --> 11:03.740
Futhi kwakungekho ukukhuluma nhlobo
nganoma yiluphi ingozi ocwaningweni lukaCook.

11:03.740 --> 11:05.780
U-Obama wakha lokho.

11:05.780 --> 11:09.225
Kubonakala sengathi uCook nozakwabo
benza konke okusemandleni abo ukuze

11:09.225 --> 11:13.500
Bazame ukufeza umphumela othile owawucwangcisiwe
kusengaphambili ngokusebenzisa izinyathelo ezithile.

11:13.500 --> 11:18.628
Futhi ngempela, kusukela ngoMashi 2012, okusho
ukuthi ngisho nangaphambi kokushicilelwa kwe

11:18.628 --> 11:23.162
kusuka ekuhlaziyweni kwe-meta
kukaCook, izinhlelo zokumaketha ezibanzi

11:23.162 --> 11:29.529
ngezimemezelo zabezindaba, imithombo yezindaba
eyinhloko, abakhangisi bezimo zezulu, ababhulogi, izinhlangano

11:29.529 --> 11:33.040
zezimo zezulu, i-Google, amavidiyo e-YouTube nokuningi.

11:33.040 --> 11:36.760
Ungahlela kanjani ukumaketha ngenkathi umsebenzi usaqhubeka?

11:36.760 --> 11:38.260
Futhi iqiniso?

11:38.260 --> 11:42.328
Iqiniso lokuthi uCook wayeqhuba ibhulogi yakhe
yokulwela izimo zezulu kusukela ngo-2007 likhombisa okuningi.

11:42.328 --> 11:46.640
Umbono wokuthi umphumela wocwaningo
lwakhe wawucatshangelwe kusengaphambili.

11:46.640 --> 11:53.220
Wabhala ngokusobala kakhulu efomini yakhe
ukuthi sivame njalo ukushaya ingoma yokuvumelana.

11:53.220 --> 12:00.960
Manje kuvela umbuzo: ubani onentshisekelo
yokushaya idrumu yokuvumelana kaningi nangokujwayelekile?

12:00.960 --> 12:05.944
Ingabe lokhu mhlawumbe kuhloswe ngakho ukuheha ukunaka
kude nezinye izizathu zezinkinga zemvelo ezibonakalayo?

12:05.944 --> 12:11.000
Uma i-CO2 ingeyona inkinga,

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Uma ngempela uzibophezele ekubuyiseleni imvelo yethu,

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Kuthiwani-ke?

12:14.393 --> 12:18.343
Uma kuseduze nenhliziyo yakho, ungakhiphi noma
yiziphi izimfundiso, zihlolisise ngokuvulekile futhi

12:18.343 --> 12:22.444
ngaphandle kokwahlulela, kanye nemibono yezinye izazi eziningi,

12:22.444 --> 12:26.940
abaphikisa ukuthi i-CO2 iyimbangela
enkulu yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu.

12:26.940 --> 12:30.323
Enguqulweni ende yohlelo lolu, uzothola
ulwazi olubalulekile ngalesi sihloko.

12:30.323 --> 12:34.420
Izicelo, okusho izitatimende ezihlangene
ezibhalwe izinkulungwane zososayensi bezimo zezulu.

12:34.420 --> 12:38.750
Kwezinye iziqeshana zedokhumentari ze-KLA TV, uzothola

12:38.750 --> 12:44.000
Ukuqonda kwezinye izimbangela ezingase zibangele
ukonakala kwemvelo nezimo zezulu ezibhubhisayo.

12:44.000 --> 12:50.780
Isibonelo, amasosha sekudala enokufinyelela
kubuchwepheshe obungakaziswa kabanzi bokuthonya isimo sezulu.

12:50.780 --> 12:57.820
Kusukela ngo-2005 kuya ku-2008, imibiko ehlaziyayo ngalolu daba
yayisivele isakazwa kuthelevishini yomphakathi yaseJalimane.

12:57.820 --> 13:00.800
Lezi zinto azicabangiwe kalula esikhathini sethu.

13:00.800 --> 13:04.480
Sicela ubuke lolu hlelo olulandelayo.

13:08.220 --> 13:11.000
Kungani uthule?

13:11.000 --> 13:12.500
Ezombusazwe nezabezindaba.

13:12.500 --> 13:13.500
Amaqiniso alandelayo?

13:13.500 --> 13:17.600
1. I-NATO fuel ezindizeni zethu ilimaza isimo sezulu.

13:17.600 --> 13:20.600
Kwakune-aluminium, i-barium, i-beryl, ne-lead,

13:20.600 --> 13:24.157
iCadmium, iChromium, iCobalt, iNsimbi, iCopper, iMolybdenum,

13:24.157 --> 13:31.140
I-sodium, i-nickel, i-strontium, i-titanium, i-manidium,
i-zinc kanye ne-tin kanye nama-oxide azo kutholakale.

13:31.140 --> 13:31.820
Okwesibili.

13:31.820 --> 13:34.220
Akukho ukulawulwa kwesimo sezulu.

13:34.220 --> 13:38.772
Ngo-1978, i-UN yamukela isivumelwano
se-UN esivimbela ukusetshenziswa kwe

13:38.772 --> 13:44.000
ngokuphathwa kwesimo sezulu nobuchwepheshe obuguqula imvelo

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Okwesithathu.

13:45.020 --> 13:50.340
Kukhona cishe izinkulungwane zamapatenti
ezobuchwepheshe bokulawula isimo sezulu.

13:50.340 --> 13:55.700
Lezi zibuyela ku-1892.

13:55.700 --> 13:56.900
Okwesine.

13:56.900 --> 14:03.220
Ama-sequoia amakhulu eCalifornia angaba neminyaka
engu-3 000 ubudala futhi manje ashonela ngokuzumayo.

14:03.220 --> 14:04.100
Okwesihlanu.

14:04.100 --> 14:07.660
Izihlahla ze-sequoia zazisetshenziswa
eCalifornia kusukela ngo-1947 kuya ku-1978.

14:07.660 --> 14:07.660
Okwesibili.

14:07.660 --> 14:15.520
Izinhlelo eziyi-110 zokuphathwa kwesimo sezulu
zethulwe eCongress yase-United States futhi zamukelwa.

14:15.520 --> 14:16.680
Okwesithupha.

14:16.680 --> 14:23.720
Umbhalo we-US Air Force wango-1996
uthi sizolawula isimo sezulu ngo-2025.

14:23.720 --> 14:31.480
Leli dokhumenti lichaza ukuthi ungayilimaza kanjani
isitha futhi usize abangani bakho ngokuthonya isimo sezulu.

14:31.480 --> 14:32.300
Isikhombisa.

14:32.300 --> 14:37.086
Ipatenti yase-US engu-4686605 ichaza ngokuningiliziwe
ukuthi ukulawulwa kwesimo sezulu kungasetshenziswa kanjani ukuze

14:37.086 --> 14:42.600
Izikhali ze-HAARP nazo zingadala ukushisa nemililo yamahlathi.

14:42.600 --> 14:44.040
Okwesishiyagalombili.

14:44.040 --> 14:45.080
I-HAARP yezempi

14:45.080 --> 14:49.952
Izitshalo emhlabeni wonke zingathinteka yizizuzulu,
izomiso, izivunguvungu nezikhukhula nganoma yisiphi isikhathi.

14:49.952 --> 14:55.280
isibhamu futhi, kanye nezigidi zamathani
zama-nano-cocktails, ngisho nezisulu eziphelele.

14:55.280 --> 14:56.800
Awukaze uzwe ngakho?

14:56.800 --> 15:02.620
Ungavumeli ukuthi ubhujisi abakhulu
bemvelo abavela emkhakheni wezempi bakudide.

15:02.620 --> 15:05.142
Yenza ucwaningo lwakho ukuze uthole ukuthi ngubani ngempela

15:05.142 --> 15:07.660
Labo ababhubhisayo imvelo nalabo
abazuza kakhulu enkingeni yesimo sezulu.

15:07.660 --> 15:15.640
Kuphela lapho abantu bebona isithombe
esikhulu, imvelo yethu ingavikelwa ngempumelelo.