WEBVTT

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Ngo-1 Mashi 2020, okubizwa ngokuthi uMthetho
Wokuvikela Imeasles waqala ukusebenza eJalimane.

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Njengengxenye yesibopho sokuhlinzeka ubufakazi
bokuvikelwa ku-measles, abazali banenketho

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yokuya ekuboniswaneni nomphathi wezempilo ofanele.

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Lezi zingxoxo zihloselwe ukukholisa abazali ngokubaluleka
kwalokho okubizwa ngokuthi umjovo wokugoma i-measles.

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Izitatimende ezifana nalezi: "Umjovo uzolimaza ingane yakho
kancane kunokuba ithole umkhuhlane wamaphaphu", "Umkhuhlane

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wamaphaphu uselwehla kusukela kwethulwa umjovo", "Ingane yakho
ngeke ithole umkhuhlane wamaphaphu ngoba wonke umuntu

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usewujovile", "Umjovo uyalwela ukumelana komphakathi
[(=ukuzivikela komphakathi: umphakathi uvikelwe kakhulu

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esifweni esithathelana.)!" kanye "Konke kuyisayensi!"

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Ekwethulweni kwakhe kwamanje okunolwazi, uDkt Gerd Reuther
uphikisa izimangalo eziningi ezenziwa ngabacebisi

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abazibiza ngokuthi abeluleki bokugoma i-measles futhi
achaza ukuthi kungani izifo zobuntwana zibalulekile.

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"Umkhuhlane, njengeminye imigula yezingane, ubangela
ukuthi izifo eziningi zingavamile kamuva empilweni."

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Lokhu kusho ukuthi, ngokujwayelekile, ukudlula
ezigulini zobuntwana kusiza ukuvikela impilo.

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Ngakho-ke kuyiqiniso ukuthi ukukhubeka nokuchama embhedeni,
isibonelo, kunganyamalala ezinganeni uma sezibe nesifo sofiva.

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Manje sekukhona imibiko yokuthi izifo
ezingapheli ezingama-32 ziyathuthuka noma zinyamalale

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ngemva kokutheleleka ngumkhuhlane we-measles.

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Eminyakeni eminingi, iSibhedlela Sezingane eBasel yenza ngenhloso
ukutheleleka kwe-measles ezigulini ezine-nephrotic syndrome,

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isifo sezinso, ngoba kwakwaziwa ukuthi ngemva kokutheleleka
kwe-measles, i-nephrotic syndrome

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iyanyamalala ngaphandle kokwelashwa, okwakungase
kube sekuzame iminyaka eminingi ngaphambilini.

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I-multiple sclerosis kamuva empilweni nayo ivamile
kakhulu kubantu abake bagula izifo zobuntwana ezifana

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nemesilesi kunalabo abangakaze bagule noma abagonyelwe.

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Futhi siyazi ezweni lesithathu ukuthi izingane lapho
azithinteki kalula ekuthelelweni ngamaparasite nasemalariya uma

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sezibe nesifo somkhuhlane wokubhujiswa kwamehlo zisengane.

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Abazali cishe abasoze bezwe lokho!

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Thatha isikhathi ukubuka yonke inkulumo kaDkt.
Gerd Reuther futhi wazise abazali, igunya lakho

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lezempilo, odokotela noma abezepolitiki endaweni yakho.

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Ngiyabonga ngokwethula.

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Yebo, sixotshwa amanga ngezindlela eziningi, njengoba wawusho:

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Siyaxokiswa emlandweni, emlandweni
wezokwelapha, kodwa futhi siphindaphindwa

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ngokuphindaphindiwe ngamaqiniso mayelana nemithi yanamuhla.

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Labo abangafuni ukukukholwa ngaphambilini
sebebonile, okungenani nge-coronavirus, ukuthi

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ulwazi olusemthethweni empeleni aluthembekile.

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Futhi lokhu sekuyiqiniso isikhathi eside
manje kukho konke okushiwo ngesihloko sokugoma.

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Futhi yingakho ngithanda ukukhuluma namuhla ngomjovo wokugoma
i-measles kanye nesifo se-measles, esiphenduke uphawu

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lokuxwayisa, sengathi i-measles ingesifo esibi kakhulu
esivame ukuholela ezinkingeni ezinzima ngisho nokufa.

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Futhi... – Ngiyaxolisa, ngidinga ukushintshela
ekwethulweni kuze kube sekusheni lokhu, yebo, kulungile.

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Ngakho-ke, kusukela ekuqaleni, yebo – ...lapho,
impela, kuyisimo esiqala ukuba nomthelela

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omangalisayo kubo bonke ngenxa yezimpawu zesikhumba.

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Kuyabonakala ukuthi umuntu uyagula
lapho izinga lokushisa liphezulu.

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Kodwa empeleni kuqala ngolwazi olungathembekile
ngokuphelele olusakazwa yabezindaba futhi, ngeshwa, ngezikhungo

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ezisemthethweni, kuhlanganise neNhlangano Yezempilo Yomhlaba.

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Muva nje, i-WHO imemezele ukuthi isimo besimangalisayo, njengoba
ukusabalala kwe-measles emazweni emhlabeni wonke sekunyuke kusuka

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ku-36 kuya ku-57, okungukuthi ukunyuka okungu-50 ekhulwini.

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Futhi bekungaba nezimo ezingu-10.3 million zokugula
ngumkhuhlane wama-measles emhlabeni, kube nokufa okungu-107,500.

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Kwanele ukukushiya uzizwa udidekile kancane, ngoba i-RKI
iyaqhubeka nokusabalalisa inani – esizobuyela

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kulo kamuva – eliphinde lingalungile: ukufa
okukodwa kwabantu abayizi-1 000 abane-measles.

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Kodwa uma ubala, lokho kungaba ukufa okukodwa kwabantu
abangama-100 abane-measles. Lokho kungenzeka kanjani?

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Futhi yonke indaba iba nentshisekelo kakhulu uma
ubheka imininingwane ebalulekile yakamuva evela ku-WHO.

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Eminyakeni engu-25 edlule, umjovo wokugoma
usindise izimpilo zabantu abayizigidi ezingama-60.

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Uma uthi, isibonelo, ukufa kwabantu
abayizinkulungwane ezingama-100,000 ngonyaka, iminyaka engu-25,

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lokho kungaba ukufa kwabantu abayizigidi ezi-2.5.

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Futhi ukugoma kungasindisa kanjani izimpilo
zabantu abayizigidi ezingamashumi ayisithupha?

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Ngakho-ke, ngokusobala, kukhona okungalungile.

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Futhi uma uzithathela isikhathi sokufunda ngokucophelela umbhalo
ocebile we-WHO, uzobona ukuthi i-WHO ayizange ithembele kudatha

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yokubuka, kodwa kulo mbhalo ithi idatha yokubuka ayanele.

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Ngakho-ke bamukela idatha mathupha futhi bayisimula
ngohlelo lwekhompyutha olubizwa ngokuthi Measles CFR.

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Futhi lolu hlelo ngokusobala alufiki ekufeni okukodwa
kwabantu abayinkulungwane, kodwa kufika ekufeni okukodwa

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kwabantu abayikhulu. Futhi kunezinye izimiso ezimbalwa.

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Noma kunjalo, inani eliphelele lamacala
e-measles abikiwe lapha alilungile nhlobo.

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Futhi lokhu kusebenza futhi, uma
sikubheka ngosayizi omncane kancane, eYurophu.

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Ngakho-ke kungase kudingeke ukuthi kuphinde kucace ukuthi
iYurophu ayiyona iYurophu yeNhlangano Yezempilo Yomhlaba

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Wonke, kodwa kunalokho iYurophu yamandla aseNtshonalanga.

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Kuhlanganisa iGreenland, iYurophu ifinyelela eBering Strait,
konke kuze kufike eVladivostok, futhi ungabona

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ne-Israel encane, engahlangene neYurophu
ngempela, kodwa nayo ifakiwe esifundeni saseYurophu.

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Ngakho-ke, uma ufunda izihloko ezithi "Ukunyuka okumangazayo
kwezimo ze-measles eYurophu," kungenzeka ukuthi kube

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nezimo ezimbalwa ezengeziwe e-Israel noma kwenye indawo encane.

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Kodwa lokho bekuyoba "iYurophu", hhayi amazwe e-European Union.

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Kodwa empeleni kwenzekani e-European Union?

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Ngo-2023, kwaba nezimo eziyi-2,361 zesifo
somkhuhlane we-measles emazweni angama-30 e-EU.

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Isibalo sezimo esingu-5.2 kwabantu abayizigidi eziyisodwa.

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Ngakho-ke empeleni akuyona isifo esivamile, kodwa-ke,
njengoba sazi kwezokwelapha, isifo esingavamile kakhulu.

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Ikakhulukazi uma uyinqhathanisa nencazelo i-European Union
eyimisile yezifo ezingavamile ukuze kusekelwe imboni yezemithi.

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Phela, kwakuyimboni yezemithi eyacela eminyakeni
embalwa edlule ukuthi ibe nesibopho sokuhlinzeka

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ngemithi yezifo ezingavamile kusukela ekuqaleni.

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Udinga izimo ezikhethekile, bese kwadingeka
uthole incazelo – yini isifo esingavamile?

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Isifo esingavamile e-European Union yilowo
oluthinta abantu abangadluli kwabahlanu kwabangu-10 000.

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Ake sibheke umkhuhlane wama-measles.

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Imbeva yayingase isengaba yisifo esingavamile eYurophu
noma ngabe eJalimane besingabi nezimo ezingaba ngu-50 kuya

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ku-500 ngonyaka, kodwa bekunezimo ezingu-41,500 zembeva.

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Noma kunjalo, bekuzoba isifo esingavamile.

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Lokhu kusho ukuthi iqiniso liwukuthi umkhuhlane
wama-measles empeleni uyisifo esingavamile kakhulu.

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Futhi lezi yizibalo esinazo
manje, kusukela ngo-2001 kuya ku-2018.

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Ungakubona ngokusobala kwesobunxele: ngo-2001 kwakukhona
izimo eziyizi-6,000, ngo-2008 kwakukhona izimo eziyizi-500.

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Futhi manje, ngo-2020, lapho kwethulwa
ukugonywa okuphoqelekile, kwakukhona izimo ezingama-50.

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Ngakho-ke lokho kusho ukuthi sikhuluma
ngenani elincane kakhulu lamacala lapha.

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Futhi kuyathakazelisa ukuthi manje, ngo-2020, sekube nezimo
ezingama-50 zokugonywa okuphoqelekile... – okuyigama eliqondile

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ngempela, ngoba akufanele ngempela ukukhuluma ngesibopho.

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Kuyafana kancane nokugcwalisa isibopho. Kuyisifiso esinamandla.

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Kodwa ngokomthetho, lokho okushiwo lapha
empeleni kuwukucindezelwa ukuba ugonywe.

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Lapho umuntu okumele athi lolu thuthuko lodwa eminyakeni engu-20
edlule lubonisa lapho isidingo sayo esingokomgomo sikhona.

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Ushintsho olumangalisayo kakhulu eminyakeni engu-20
edlule kwaba ukwehla kusuka ku-6,000 kuya ku-766

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phakathi konyaka ka-2001 no-2003. Futhi kwenzekeni lapho?

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Izinga lokugoma alizange
lishintshe. Akukho ukuphoqelelwa ukugoma.

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Cha, okwenzekile ukuthi kwethulwa isibopho sokubika izimo
zomkhuhlane we-measles, okubonakala kungenangqondo ekuqaleni.

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Lokho kusho ukuthi uma ngiphoqa odokotela ukuthi babike izimo
zokugula ngumkhuhlane wamaphaphu eziphathimandla zezempilo,

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inani lezimo lehla laya ku-10%. Lokho kungenzeka kanjani?

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Incazelo eyodwa kuphela, ngokombono wami,
wukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi lezi yizibalo zangempela.

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Kodwa lezo zibalo zangaphambilini, ezingu-6 000
nangaphezulu ngeminyaka yama-1990, azizange zibe neqiniso.

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Kuyabonakala ukuthi zakhiwe, ngoba ngaphandle kwalokho ungachaza
kanjani ukuthi ngokushesha odokotela bethola

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isijeziso ngokungabiki lesi sifo
eziphathimandla zezempilo, inani lamacala lehla ngokuzumayo?

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Lokho akunakwenzeka ukuthi kube yiqiniso. Ngakho-ke,
njengoba sesibonile kwezinye izimo, kumele sicabange ukuthi lezi

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zinombolo zakhiwe yiRobert Koch Institute iminyaka eminingi.

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Kusukela kwethulwa isidingo sokubika, sekubonakale
enye into engabonakali kulezi zinombolo, okungukuthi

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iminyaka evamile yeziguli ze-measles iyaqhubeka nokunyuka.

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Namuhla, ingxenye yazo zonke izimo zomkhuhlane
we-measles zenzeka kubantu abangaphezu kweminyaka engu-20.

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Lokho kusho ukuthi kukhona okushintshile. Futhi kufanele
futhi sicabange ukuthi kunobudlelwano obubangela nokugonywa.

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Eminyakeni eyizinkulungwane, umkhuhlane
wama-measles wawungeyona isifo esithinta abantu abadala.

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Lezi kwakuyizimo ezingavamile
kakhulu. Kunalokho, kwakuyinkinga yokuqala.

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Uma lokho sekungasekho kanjalo,
khona-ke kumele kube khona okuthile okuthonya.

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Futhi yinto eyodwa kuphela ethinta
okwamanje, okuyikwethulwa kokugonywa.

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Noma kunjalo, isimo sonke simi
kanje: lesi sifo sinqabile kakhulu.

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Futhi uma ubala ukuthi udokotela ojwayelekile unokuthintana
neziguli okungaba ngu-200 000 eminyakeni engu-30 yokusebenza,

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khona-ke udokotela ojwayelekile kuzomele
asebenze iminyaka engu-150 ukuze abone icala

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elilodwa lokugula ngumkhuhlane we-measles.

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Nokho, lokhu kuhunyushwa njengengozi yezempilo ekhethekile.

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Yilokho okwesabekayo, ngoba uMthetho Wokuvikela Ekuthelelekeni
uthi insongo yokudluliselwa iwisu: isifo esidluliselwa esithi,

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ngenxa yezimo zokuthuthuka ezinzima kwezokwelapha nendlela yaso
yokusabalala, singabeka ingozi enkulu emphakathini jikelele.

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Umbuzo ithi, kungenziwa kanjani lokhu kwesifo
esingavamile kakhulu futhi, ngokwezibalo

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ezisemthethweni, cishe asikaze sibe sibi kakhulu noma sibulale?

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Lokho empeleni akunakwenzeka. Kodwa lesi sigaba
soMthetho Wokuvikela Ekuthelelekeni sisetshenziswe ukusekela

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ukuphoqelelwa okungaqondile kokugoma i-measles eJalimane.

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Akubandakanyi wonke umuntu. Njengoba ngibona lapha
kumamonitha, iningi labo lazalwa ngaphambi kuka-1971,

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ngokuthi, ngakho-ke bathola inzuzo yobusha obusheshayo.

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Umuntu angacabanga-ke ukuthi kukhona umuntu ongathinteki.

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Nokho, noma ubani ozalwe ngemuva kuka-31 Disemba 1970 kumele
ahlinzeke ubufakazi bokuthi wake waba nesifo somkhuhlane wamehlo

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noma ukuthi bekungabe engavikeliwe ngomjovo wokumelana naso.

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Lokhu kusebenza ezinganeni zasenurseri nezasezikoleni,
kubasebenzi bezikhungo zomphakathi, kulabo abazalwe

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ngo-1971 noma kamuva, nakubo bonke abasebenzi bezempilo.

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Ngoba kucatshangwa, noma okungenani
kuphakanyiswe, ukuthi kulezi zikhungo zomphakathi

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kunezingozi eziphakeme kakhulu zokutheleleka i-measles.

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Futhi kufanele ubheke ukuthi ngabe lokho kuyiqiniso ngempela.

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Ngokwemininingwane evela eKhonsilini Yasefederal ngo-2020, bonke
abantu abayizigidi eziyishumi nanye eJalimane kumele

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bafakazele ukuthi banamavakashi okuzivikela
kumkhuhlane wama-measles, noma ngokugula noma ngokugonywa.

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Iqiniso lokuthi ukufakazela ukumelana nesifo
esibangelwa igciwane kuyindaba engacacile kakhulu,

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okuyindaba ehlukile esizoxoxa ngayo kamuva kancane.

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Kodwa ake sibheke lokhu: phakathi kuka-2014 no-2018 kwaba
nokuqhuma kwezifo ze-measles okungu-430 nezimo ezingu-3,178

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ze-measles, kuphela ikota yazo eyenzeka kulezi
zikhungo zomphakathi lapho abasebenzi

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bekuphoqelekile ukuhlinzeka ubufakazi bokuvikeleka komzimba.

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Ezinye amaphesenti angama-75 wezimo zenzeke
ezindaweni lapho ukugonywa kuseyikhethelo.

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Lokhu futhi kukhombisa ukuthi lokho okwethulwa lapha ngamaKomidi
ochwepheshe abizwa ngokuthi iRobert Koch Institute, iSTIKO kanye

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neziphathimandla zezempilo akusondeli endleleni enengqondo.

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Isimo sonke cishe siyaziwa kahle.

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Umkhuhlane wama-measles wawuvamile kakhulu. Lawa
ngabantu abashonile ngenxa yomkhuhlane wama-measles lapha.

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Yingakho ngibhekisela enanini lokufa hhayi enanini
eliphelele lamacala, ngoba, njengoba ngichaze

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ngaphambilini, isidingo sokubika safakwa kuphela ngo-2001.

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Ngaphambilini, kwakungekho sidingo sokubika. Lokhu kusho ukuthi
inani langempela lamacala ngaphambi kwalokhu alaziwa ngempela.

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Ngoba lapho ubuyela emuva esikhathini, kwakuvamile
kubantu abaningi abane-measles ukuthi bangaboni udokotela.

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Ngesikhathi nginesifo se-measles
ngisemncane, ngangikwekhaya futhi.

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Lokho kwakuyuxilongo lukamama, wathi, "Manje
uzohlala embhedeni izinsuku ezimbalwa, bese

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uvuka futhi uma usuphilile." Futhi yilokho kuphela.

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Impela, lokho akubonakali ezibalweni. Yingakho kunezifa.

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Kodwa kwavela ukuthi ngeminyaka yama-1960
kwakukhona phakathi kuka-100 no-200 abantu

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ababekholelwa ukuthi bashona ngenxa yomkhuhlane we-measles.

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Ngithi kuthiwa ngoba ubangela abuqinisekile nhlobo.

16:25.580 --> 16:36.164
Futhi lapho umuthi wokugoma i-measles wethulwa okokuqala ngo-1974,
kwathi ngo-1976 umkhankaso wokuphelisa i-measles wawuqiniswa,

16:36.164 --> 16:41.404
lezi zinombolo zazivele zehle kakhulu zaba ngaphansi kuka-40.

16:41.404 --> 16:46.661
Lokhu kusho ukuthi umkhuba wokwehla
okuqhubekayo kwezimo zomkhuhlane we-measles nokufa

16:46.661 --> 16:49.622
ngenxa yawo wawusungulwe ngaphambi kwalokho.

16:49.622 --> 16:55.271
Akukho nhlobo uxhumano lwabangela
phakathi kwalemijovo yokugoma nalokho.

16:55.271 --> 16:58.396
Kodwa kukhona okunye okuthakazelisayo mayelana nezibalo.

16:58.396 --> 17:04.669
Cabanga futhi ngalesi sitatimende se-RKI:
ukufa okukodwa ezinkulungwaneni zamacala.

17:04.669 --> 17:10.230
Ngeminyaka yama-1960 nama-1970, ngaphambi
kokwethulwa komjovo wokugoma i-measles, saba nokuzalwa

17:10.230 --> 17:14.130
kwabantu abayizinkulungwane eziyisishiyagalombili.

17:14.130 --> 17:25.441
Lokhu kusho ukuthi kulezi zizalo ezingama-800,000, uma zonke
zazigonyelwe noma izinga lokufa ngenxa ye-measles lalingu-0.1%,

17:25.441 --> 17:33.286
bekungaba nezingane eziningi kakhulu ezazizofa
nge-measles, ngoba i-measles yayiyisifo

17:33.286 --> 17:38.638
esivamile ebuncaneni esasingenwa izingane eziningi.

17:38.638 --> 17:45.729
Futhi-ke bekungeke kube nezibalo ezincane kakhulu zokufa
ezingu-50, 100 noma 150 uma ingane eyodwa kwizinkulungwane

17:45.729 --> 17:49.240
ezithole umkhuhlane wama-measles yayingafa ngempela.

17:49.240 --> 17:56.928
Ngakho-ke lapha futhi sibona futhi ukuthi izinombolo ziyadlalwa
ngokukhululeka okukhulu, ikakhulukazi inombolo engu-1 kwabangu-1

17:56.928 --> 18:04.896
000, engakwazi ukuqinisekiswa emazweni athuthukile ngokwezimboni
ngokususelwa kudatha yonke eqoqiwe emashumini eminyaka adlule.

18:04.896 --> 18:12.309
Futhi iNkantolo yoMthethosisekelo Kazwelonke
yamukela isilinganiso esingu-1 ku-10 000 esinqumweni sayo.

18:12.309 --> 18:19.320
Okungenani eminyakeni embalwa edlule kusukela ngo-2018 kuya
ku-2024, inani lamacala omkhuhlane wezingane, kuhlanganisa nokufa

18:19.320 --> 18:24.704
nomonakalo ongasoze waphenduka, umkhuhlane
wezingane ukhombisiwe ngakwesobunxele kanti i-rubella

18:24.704 --> 18:28.135
ngakwesokudla, yizibalo ezisemthethweni ezivela ku-RKI.

18:28.135 --> 18:34.865
Ngakho-ke uyabona, eminyakeni eyisithupha, akukho
okubulawa, akukho umonakalo ongasoze waphenduka.

18:34.865 --> 18:42.116
Ngakho-ke lesi akuyona isifo esingabeka ingozi
emphakathini jikelele nganoma iyiphi indlela.

18:42.116 --> 18:47.473
Lokhu kusho ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwesigaba
sokulawula ukutheleleka okwavezwe ngaphambilini

18:47.473 --> 18:52.043
akukwazi ukutholakala ezibalo zonke ngokuhlangene.

18:52.043 --> 18:58.704
Uma sibheka emuva kakhulu, phakathi kwezimo
eziyi-7,092 zokutheleleka yi-measles, izigameko ezintathu

18:58.704 --> 19:02.715
zokufa empeleni zibikiwe ukuthi zibangelwa yi-measles.

19:02.715 --> 19:09.629
Kodwa-ke, umbuzo uwukuthi, ngabe
i-measles yayingempela imbangela?

19:09.629 --> 19:17.022
Ngingasho ngempela kuphela ukuthi uma
umkhuhlane wama-measles wawungokuzumayo futhi

19:17.022 --> 19:21.590
umuntu washona ngaphandle kokuthonywa kokwelashwa.

19:21.590 --> 19:29.942
Ngingasho ukuthi, yebo, ngokusobala, umkhuhlane
wama-measles wawuyisibangela esibulalayo kubantu.

19:29.942 --> 19:36.395
Kodwa ngokushesha nje lapho ngiphatha futhi
ngiphatha nezingozi, khona-ke kunjalo kuyahlukile.

19:36.395 --> 19:45.065
Ngakho-ke ngihlale nginethuba lokuthi othile angase afe
ngenxa yesifo esiyisisekelo, kodwa futhi ngenxa yokwelashwa.

19:45.065 --> 19:51.056
Futhi izidakamizwa ezingena ngaphakathi
emzimbeni ziyasetshenziswa, ngisho nasekutholakeni

19:51.056 --> 19:54.325
i-measles, uma isimo somntwana siyaqhubeka siba sibi.

19:54.325 --> 19:59.162
Cabanga nje ukuthi kwenzekani lapho e-United
States, lapho bathi othile washona ngenxa

19:59.162 --> 20:01.387
yomkhuhlane wamantambama owathola ezinganeni.

20:01.387 --> 20:04.667
Yebo, ingane enjalo isethola umoya ngomshini
wokuphefumula. Sekwabonakala ngokusobala

20:04.667 --> 20:06.817
ukuthi lesi sifo sasibukeka sihlukile kakhulu.

20:06.817 --> 20:13.869
Kodwa uma ngivele ngiphefumula umuntu, lokho kusho ukuthi
ngimthulisa nge-opioid, ngimvumela athule, mhlawumbe ngimnika

20:13.869 --> 20:19.083
i-remdesivir – ngamanye amazwi, ezinye
izidakamizwa ezingajwayelekile ezilwa namagciwane

20:19.083 --> 20:21.535
ane-imiphumela emibi enzima – noma kunjalo.

20:21.535 --> 20:23.607
Kodwa angidingi ngisho nokuya kude kangako.

20:23.607 --> 20:31.457
Kunjalo, sekuyindlela evamile namuhla, ikakhulukazi ezibhedlela,
ukwehlisa ngokushesha noma yiluphi umkhuhlane omncane.

20:31.457 --> 20:36.980
Ikakhulukazi lapho umkhuhlane uphakama kakhulu ngenxa yomkhuhlane
wamachokoza, kusetshenziswa imishanguzo yokwehlisa umkhuhlane.

20:36.980 --> 20:42.994
Futhi hhayi ngokugoqa izingalo ngezibopho noma mhlawumbe
nge-aspirin endala eyaziwayo, kodwa namuhla, ngisho

20:42.994 --> 20:50.123
nasezinganeni, kuthathwa izinyathelo eziqinile kakhulu,
okungukuthi i-diclofenac noma i-ibuprofen, isibonelo.

20:50.123 --> 20:56.405
Futhi lapha, ku-Arzneimittel-Telegramm (iTelegramu
Yezidakamizwa), ungafunda emibhalweni yephakheji ukuthi lezi

20:56.405 --> 21:02.177
zinto ezimbili, ezisetshenziselwa ukwehlisa
umkhuhlane, zingabangela izinhlungu zekhanda, isicanucanu,

21:02.177 --> 21:06.277
ukuhlanza ngisho ne-meningitis engelona uhlobo lwe-aseptic.

21:06.277 --> 21:16.707
Ngamanye amazwi, i-meningitis ibhekwa njengokuphazamiseka
okubulalayo noma imbangela yokuba isifo se-measles

21:16.707 --> 21:22.864
sibe nzima, okuholela ku-meningitis bese ku-encephalitis.

21:22.864 --> 21:26.668
Futhi lokhu kungenzeka ngale mithi yodwa kuphela, isibonelo.

21:26.668 --> 21:32.632
Futhi angazi ngisho ngodaba olulodwa lapho,
ngesikhathi sokufa, kwenziwa umzamo wokuhlukanisa

21:32.632 --> 21:36.504
ukuthi ngabe imiphumela yokwelashwa ibambe iqhaza.

21:36.504 --> 21:43.731
Lokho kwenzeka ngokuzenzakalelayo;
kuthiwa umkhuhlane wabulale umuntu.

21:43.731 --> 21:49.423
Ekugcineni, cishe kuzovela ukuthi akekho
owake wafa ngenxa yomkhuhlane wamaphaphu.

21:49.423 --> 21:58.212
Kukhona izifundo ezimbalwa ezichaza ngokusobala ukuthi
ngaphandle kokwehlisa umkhuhlane, umzimba ungakwazi ukubhekana

21:58.212 --> 22:02.368
kahle nenqubo yemvelo yokugula, okungenani ezinganeni.

22:02.368 --> 22:12.095
Futhi ukuthi lomkhuhlane ophakeme ekupheleni kwesifo
uyadingeka ngokuphelele ukuze kuze kuphuleke ngokuphelele.

22:12.095 --> 22:19.743
Futhi ngingathanda futhi ukucaphuna uProfesa weNyuvesi
uGraninger, ongase amazi abanye kini, uma ningama-Austria.

22:19.743 --> 22:28.441
UProfesa Graninger, okwamanje esaphila namuhla, owayengumlingani
wami e-AKH eVienna, owayenguchwepheshe odume umhlaba

22:28.441 --> 22:33.299
wonke kwezokutheleleka iminyaka engu-30, wathi ngaleso sikhathi:

22:33.299 --> 22:37.900
Abantu namuhla abasakwazi ukuba nomkhuhlane
ofanele – yilokho okusiphethayo okusabekayo.

22:37.900 --> 22:41.461
Amandla okukhiqiza ukushisa kwangaphakathi
yindlela yethu yokuzivikela endala kunazo zonke

22:41.461 --> 22:43.678
ngokwezintuthuko zokuvuthwa kwezinto eziphilayo.

22:43.678 --> 22:53.251
Futhi kubalulekile ekuthuthukeni nasekuphileni
kwezifo ukuthi umkhuhlane ungavela ngempela.

22:53.251 --> 23:01.934
Futhi kunjalo. UGraninger wayengekho nhlobo njengomelaphi
wezindlela zokwelapha ezingajwayelekile, kodwa wayengudokotela

23:01.934 --> 23:09.097
ovamile oqinisekisiwe othe lokhu, kodwa
njengengxenye yesizukulwane esidala, waphinde wabona ukuthi

23:09.097 --> 23:13.071
ukunciphisa umkhuhlane kungalimaza umuntu kakhulu.

23:13.071 --> 23:19.360
Futhi uma-ke uhlanganisa lokhu nemithi efana
ne-diclofenac noma i-ibuprofen, ungadala

23:19.360 --> 23:23.884
umonakalo ophindwe kabili, ongaholela ngisho ekufeni.

23:23.884 --> 23:34.019
Futhi uma sibheka ingozi phakathi kwe-measles nokugoma i-measles
ngokusekelwe ezibalo ezisemthethweni, sibona ukuthi sibhekene

23:34.019 --> 23:39.384
nombono ongenangqondo ngokuphelele wokugoma okuphoqelekile.

23:39.384 --> 23:43.489
Sinamakhulu angama-50 kuya kwangama-100 ngonyaka eJalimane.

23:43.489 --> 23:46.634
I-Austria ingahlala ihlukaniswa ngeshumi.

23:46.634 --> 23:53.516
Isigamu salezi zimo manje sezisezinganeni, okusho
ukuthi kunezimo ezingana ezingama-25 kuya kwezingu-250.

23:53.516 --> 23:59.032
Futhi-ke singase sibe nokufa okukodwa kwabantu
abayizi-5 000 kuya kwezi-10 000 abahlangabezana nalezi zimo.

23:59.032 --> 24:09.246
Yilokho okukhombisa izibalo ngempela lapho lezi zafa, okungenzeka
ukuthi zibangelwe ukwelashwa, zisabaliwe njengezifa ze-measles.

24:09.246 --> 24:15.851
Lokhu kusho ukuthi, kuye ngokuthi kwenzeka
kangaki ngonyaka, sizoba nokufa komntwana

24:15.851 --> 24:21.540
oyedwa njalo eminyakeni engu-10 kuya kwengu-200.

24:21.540 --> 24:29.484
Ngakho-ke, kuthiwani ngomjovo wokugoma i-measles? Ngisho
nabameli bokugoma bayavuma ukuthi kumele kube nokufa okukodwa

24:29.484 --> 24:33.548
kuya kwezimbili ngonyaka ngenxa yomjovo wokugoma i-measles.

24:33.548 --> 24:39.532
Lokho cishe izigidi zokugoma ezinikezwa eJalimane.

24:39.532 --> 24:45.860
Futhi okuncane okushiwo ngokugoma ngakunye
ukufa okukodwa ngemijovo eyizigidi eziyisodwa.

24:45.860 --> 24:52.699
Ukufa okukodwa kuya kwezimbili, ngokwemininingwane esemthethweni
evela ku-RKI, kanye neminye imininingwane

24:52.699 --> 25:00.537
esemthethweni evela ku-RKI: imiphumela emibi enzima engu-100
ngonyaka, kuhlanganise nomonakalo ongasoze waphindeka.

25:00.537 --> 25:08.976
Lokho kulindelekile. Uma kuqhathaniswa nokufa
kwengane eyodwa njalo eminyakeni engu-10 kuya kwengu-200.

25:08.976 --> 25:17.233
Ngakho-ke, lapho kubhekwa izinzuzo nezingozi, akekho udokotela
onomthwalo wemfanelo, noma ngempela noma yimuphi umpolitiki

25:17.233 --> 25:23.189
onomthwalo wemfanelo, ongakwazi ngokucabanga
kwakhe okuhle ukunquma ukusekela ukugonywa,

25:23.189 --> 25:28.184
futhi impela hhayi ukugonywa okuphoqelekile.

25:28.184 --> 25:34.950
Ngoba kuba kubi kakhulu: umkhuhlane we-measles
ukushiya nomzimba onamandla okuvikela impilo yakho yonke.

25:34.950 --> 25:41.036
Lokhu kusho ukuthi umuntu owake waba nomkhuhlane
we-measles ngeke aphinde athole umkhuhlane we-measles futhi.

25:41.036 --> 25:47.594
Kufana ne-smallpox. Noma ubani oke
waba ne-smallpox ngeke ayithole futhi.

25:47.594 --> 25:50.472
Kodwa izinto zibukeka zihlukile ngemva kokugoma.

25:50.472 --> 25:56.769
Akukho mjekelo owodwa, uma umuntu ekholelwa ekusebenziseni
kwemijovo yokugoma, futhi akukho noyedwa kuyo

25:56.769 --> 26:02.995
osekelwe ezifakazweni zokwelapha ngoba awuzange
uhlolwe ngokucophelela ngocwaningo lwe-placebo.

26:02.995 --> 26:23.332
Ngakho-ke ngisho nabameli bokugoma kumele bavume ukuthi ukugoma
kubangela amazinga amancane ama-antibodi kunokuba usube nesifo.

26:23.332 --> 26:26.917
Futhi, vele, izifo zingaphinde zenzeke.

26:26.917 --> 26:35.742
Futhi manje siyaqaphela ukuthi umphakathi oselokhu ethola imijovo
iminyaka noma amashumi eminyaka unamandla

26:35.742 --> 26:43.667
okuvikela omzimba aphansi kunalowo lapho iningi
labantu linamandla okuvikela omzimba wemvelo.

26:43.667 --> 26:50.495
Impela! Ngoba ukumelana nomzimba
akugcwele, okungenani, uma kungenzeka nhlobo.

26:50.495 --> 26:56.669
Oomama abagonyiwe banezilinganiso eziphansi
zamakhoramuni, ngakho-ke badlulisela amakhoramuni

26:56.669 --> 27:00.542
ambalwa ezinganeni zabo njengokuvikelwa kwasekuqaleni.

27:00.542 --> 27:09.067
Lokhu kusho ukuthi, ngokususelwa kulezi ziqiniso, eziphinde
zaqinisekiswa yiRobert Koch Institute,

27:09.067 --> 27:17.087
kuyacaca ukuthi angeke nginciphise noma ngisho
ngiqede i-measles nezinye izifo ngokugoma.

27:17.087 --> 27:26.983
Ngokuphambene nalokho, uma nginokugonywa okuphezulu noma ngisho
nokugonywa okuphoqelekile, ngihlala ngivusa izimo ezintsha

27:26.983 --> 27:33.331
ezingeke zenzeke emphakathini osuvele
uthinteka kaningi kulesi sifo, ngoba ngaphandle

27:33.331 --> 27:37.592
kwalokho kuba nokuzivikela komzimba kwemvelo.

27:37.592 --> 27:41.444
Futhi lokho kungatholakala ngalezi
zinga zamabhowuni okuvikela umzimba.

27:41.444 --> 27:47.764
Futhi lezi zinga zamabhowuni omzimba, kunjalo, njengoba
bekushiwo, ziyinkohliso kancane, okuyinto ebalulekile ukuyazi.

27:47.764 --> 27:55.652
Ngoba, njengoba ngishilo ekuqaleni, uma umuntu engafuni ukugonywa
ngaphansi kwalesi simfuneko sokugonywa eJalimane,

27:55.652 --> 28:04.794
angaphinde enze ukuhlolwa kwamaphrotheni omzimba ukuze abonise
ukuthi unamaphrotheni omzimba anele futhi akadingi ukugonywa.

28:04.794 --> 28:11.863
Kodwa lezi zimelana zomzimba zisho ukuthini? Siyazi ukuthi kulezi
zivivinyo ze-IgG ELISA, ngisho nomuntu oseke waba nesifo

28:11.863 --> 28:18.468
se-measles unamanani aphansi kangangokuthi, ngokusekelwe
emiphumeleni yokuhlolwa, kuzodingeka ukuthi athole umjovo

28:18.468 --> 28:23.395
wokugoma, nakuba sekuyiqiniso ukuthi wake waba nesifo se-measles.

28:23.395 --> 28:28.936
Lokhu kusho ukuthi sesivele sibona
ukuthi konke lokhu akubalulekile ngempela.

28:28.936 --> 28:35.874
Futhi kucace ngokuphelele, ngoba ngokusho kombiko
osemthethweni, sibhekene nesifo esosakazeka ngokushesha lapha.

28:35.874 --> 28:42.819
Futhi izifo ezisabalala ngokushesha ziqedwa ikakhulu
ngamandla okuvikela kwamaseli, hhayi ngama-antibodies.

28:42.819 --> 28:51.203
Futhi lapho ngilinganisa ama-antibodies, okwakuyize
nakwi-coronavirus, anginayo imininingwane ngokumelana komzimba.

28:51.203 --> 28:57.996
Kodwa sekuyiqiniso ukuthi, ngenxa yokuphoqelelwa okungaqondile
kokugoma eJalimane, kufanele abantu

28:57.996 --> 29:04.953
abathintekile banikeze ubufakazi bokumelana
nomkhuhlane, noma kungakabizwa kanjalo kuze kube manje.

29:04.953 --> 29:12.414
Kodwa yilokho ngqo lo mthetho we-pandemic osisongela
sonke esikhathini esizayo, kuzo zonke izinhlobo zezifo.

29:12.414 --> 29:18.923
Singabanejwayelo lokwenza okubi, futhi uma kuba
nokungabaza, kumele sifakazele ukuthi asithinteki.

29:18.923 --> 29:25.700
Futhi njengoba bengasikholwa njengabantu besizwe,
bathi, yebo, sikholwa kuphela ezivivinyweni esizenzayo.

29:25.700 --> 29:35.347
Nokho, akukho ukuhlolwa okungafakazela ukumelana nanoma
yiluphi isifo. Kubalulekile ukukukhumbula lokhu njalo.

29:35.347 --> 29:44.662
Kodwa siyazi ngisho nangaphezulu kwalokho: ukuvikelwa
ekuvuselelweni kwe-measles akusebenzi kuphela ngama-100% uma

29:44.662 --> 29:55.153
usuke waba ne-measles, kodwa i-measles, njengeminye imigulo
yezingane, isho ukuthi izifo eziningi azivamile kamuva empilweni.

29:55.153 --> 30:02.861
Lokhu kusho ukuthi, ngokujwayelekile, ukudlula
ezigulini zobuntwana kusiza ukuvikela impilo.

30:02.861 --> 30:12.601
Ngakho-ke kuyiqiniso ukuthi ukukhubeka nokuchama embhedeni,
isibonelo, kunganyamalala ezinganeni uma sezibe nesifo sofiva.

30:12.601 --> 30:19.017
Manje sekukhona imibiko yokuthi izifo
ezingapheli ezingama-32 ziyathuthuka noma zinyamalale

30:19.017 --> 30:23.951
ngemva kokutheleleka ngumkhuhlane we-measles.

30:23.951 --> 30:32.001
Eminyakeni eminingi, iSibhedlela Sezingane eBasel yadala
ngenhloso ukutheleleka kwe-measles ezigulini ezine-nephrotic

30:32.001 --> 30:39.087
syndrome, isifo sezinso, ngoba kwakwaziwa ukuthi ngemva
kokutheleleka kwe-measles, i-nephrotic syndrome

30:39.087 --> 30:46.405
yayinyamalala ngaphandle kokwelashwa,
okwakungase kube sekuzame iminyaka eminingi ngaphambilini.

30:46.405 --> 30:55.683
I-multiple sclerosis kamuva empilweni nayo ivamile
kakhulu kubantu abake bagula izifo zobuntwana ezifana

30:55.683 --> 31:02.520
nemesilesi kunalabo abangakaze bagule noma abagonyelwe.

31:02.520 --> 31:09.948
Futhi siyazi ezweni lesithathu ukuthi izingane lapho
azithinteki kalula ekuthelelweni ngamaparasayithi nasemalari uma

31:09.948 --> 31:13.387
zazibhekane nomkhuhlane wokubuthakathaka zisengabantwana.

31:13.387 --> 31:15.874
Ngakho-ke yilona iphuzu elibaluleke kakhulu.

31:15.874 --> 31:24.233
Ngoba uma manje uphoqa umuntu ukuthi adlule esifweni semvelo,
i-measles, esifakazelwe ukuthi sinikeza izinzuzo

31:24.233 --> 31:32.962
eziningi zempilo kamuva empilweni, khona-ke lokho nakho
kuwukwephula inkululeko yakhe yokuzikhethela empilweni.

31:32.962 --> 31:39.205
Lowo uthi, yebo, cishe sizokuvikela ekutholeni umkhuhlane
wama-measles ngomjovo wokugoma, kodwa akukhoqinisekile.

31:39.205 --> 31:43.202
Manje sesiyazi ukuthi okungenani amaphesenti
angama-30 wezimo zokugula ngumkhuhlane wama-measles

31:43.202 --> 31:46.102
zenzeka kubantu abagonyiwe, futhi lezo zibalo ziyanda.

31:46.102 --> 31:51.149
Futhi kumele sisho ukuthi lezi zinzuzo
zempilo azinikezwa ukutheleleka kwemvelo

31:51.149 --> 31:55.608
kwe-measles ngemuva kokugonywa kwethu kwe-measles.

31:55.608 --> 32:02.754
Kodwa-ke kumele umuntu athathe isinqumo ngokulinganisa izinketho,
futhi ngikholelwa ukuthi cishe akekho ozokhetha ukugonywa; kodwa

32:02.754 --> 32:08.197
kulokhu akusaseyindaba yokuzikhethela, kodwa
sekuyindaba yokuphoqelelwa ukuba benze kanjalo, nakuba

32:08.197 --> 32:13.073
kukhona izinkinga ezibonakalayo kulowo okhuluma ngaye.

32:13.073 --> 32:23.874
Futhi njengoba ngishilo ngaphambilini, manje njengoba sesibone
ukwehla kwezifo zabantwana ezifana ne-measles, sesibona ukwanda,

32:23.874 --> 32:33.698
okuthathwa ngokushesha yi-Robert Koch Institute noma yi-WHO
njengomyalelo wokuthatha izinyathelo, kusho ukuthi, yebo, manje

32:33.698 --> 32:38.908
sesinokuvuka kabusha kwezifo, ngakho-ke kumele sigonyelwe manje.

32:38.908 --> 32:45.009
Lokho, ngempela, kuyimpendulo engalungile ngokuphelele.
Esikhundleni salokho, lezi ziqhumane esizibona futhi manje

32:45.009 --> 32:48.703
empeleni azinqandeki, ngokwalokho engikushilo ngaphambilini.

32:48.703 --> 32:56.620
Njengoba inani labantu abathole ngokwemvelo i-measles
selinciphile kakhulu futhi abaningi sebeqhutshelwe imijovo

32:56.620 --> 33:02.345
yokugoma, amandla okuvikela umzimba
ku-measles kumele ukuthi ayehla. Futhi ngenxa

33:02.345 --> 33:05.908
yalokho, i-measles isiba yinto evamile futhi.

33:05.908 --> 33:12.284
Futhi-ke akusengaba yisizathu sokucabanga ukuthi
umkhuhlane wama-measles yisifo okufanele kugonywe ngaso.

33:12.284 --> 33:16.392
Ngakho-ke sinesifo esisha
esithathelana, esisebenza nakwezinye izifo.

33:16.392 --> 33:19.452
Bese sinikeza le mjekelo sisebenzisa ipathogeni ebuthakathaka.

33:19.452 --> 33:23.366
Ihlala inikeza ukuvikelwa okungaphelele.

33:23.366 --> 33:32.003
Kodwa uma kuyisifo esibuthakathaka,
kusengumgijimi ngokwezokwelapha okujwayelekile

33:32.003 --> 33:37.255
futhi ngokuqinisekile singabangela isifo.

33:37.255 --> 33:43.646
Futhi iqiniso liwukuthi akukho ndawo emhlabeni
lapho umuntu ahlukaniswa khona izinsuku eziyishumi

33:43.646 --> 33:48.011
noma eziyishumi nane ngemva kokuthola umjovo wokugoma.

33:48.011 --> 33:55.278
Ngemva kokugonywa, ikhululwa ngokushesha
emiphakathini yabantu, ngakho-ke kuyacaca ukuthi lezi zifo

33:55.278 --> 33:59.080
ezinciphisiwe zingadluliselwa ngokwemvelo kwabanye abantu.

33:59.080 --> 34:05.734
Lokhu kusho ukuthi ngokugoma ngakunye, ingozi
yokusabalala kwesifo ngokwemvelo iyanda futhi.

34:05.734 --> 34:12.977
Lokhu kusho ukuthi sizoba nezifo ezintsha ngoba sisakaza
amagciwane abuthakathaka futhi sinikeza ukuvikelwa

34:12.977 --> 34:17.839
komzimba okungaphansi kunalokho okutholakala ngesifo semvelo.

34:17.839 --> 34:25.133
Bese wengeza imizamo yokugoma, futhi lapho wenza kanjalo,
kuba nezifo ezithathelana ngokutheleleka eziningi kakhulu.

34:25.133 --> 34:34.764
Futhi yilokho esikubonile futhi eminyakeni emihlanu edlule
emazweni ambalwa anezinga eliphezulu lokugoma izifo zabantwana.

34:34.764 --> 34:41.079
Lapha, isibonelo, ungabona nezimo zomkhuhlane we-measles
esifundeni saseYurophu. Lezi yizimo ezibikiwe, amakholomu

34:41.079 --> 34:47.462
abomvu. Futhi ungabona umugqa oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka
phezulu, okusho ukuthi kudliwe umthamo owodwa kuphela.

34:47.462 --> 34:54.952
Lokhu bekwenzeka kaningi isikhathi eside, futhi
umthamo wesibili wawungajwayelekile ukunikezwa;

34:54.952 --> 34:59.378
lokhu sekukhethwa kuphela eminyakeni engu-25 edlule.

34:59.378 --> 35:06.308
Futhi njengoba ubona, izinga lemijovo
yesibili manje selidlule amaphesenti angama-90.

35:06.308 --> 35:12.826
Kodwa ngabe lokhu kuholele ekutheni lezi
zifo zingasavami? Kusobala ukuthi cha.

35:12.826 --> 35:18.339
Futhi lokho nakho kuwukungena ngaphandle
okwalandelayo okwenziwa lapha ngumthethisi.

35:18.339 --> 35:26.830
Ngakho-ke kuvunywa ukuthi, ngokwezokwelapha ejwayelekile,
umjovo wokuqala wokugoma unikeza ukuzivikela okungu-95%.

35:26.830 --> 35:31.452
Uma ulinda ezinye izinyanga eziyi-12 kuya
kweziyi-15 ngaphandle komjovo wesibili, amandla

35:31.452 --> 35:34.458
okuvikela umzimba akhuphuka aze afinyelele ku-98%.

35:34.458 --> 35:38.470
Futhi ngemva kokugonywa kwesibili, bathi izinga
lokuphumelela kokugonywa lidlula amaphesenti angama-99.

35:38.470 --> 35:50.505
Eqinisweni, nokho, umjovo wesibili uwumkhuba ongasadingeki nhlobo
kwabangu-95 kwabangu-100, noma ngempela kwabangu-98 kwabangu-100,

35:50.505 --> 36:01.553
ngoba ngokwezokwelapha ejwayelekile, amasosha omzimba
asevele akhule ku-98% ngemva komjovo wokuqala – uma ulinda nje.

36:01.553 --> 36:07.999
Kodwa-ke usathola umjovo wesibili,
onobungozi obufanayo ngqo nalowo wokuqala.

36:07.999 --> 36:14.057
Lokhu kusho ingozi yokufa okukodwa kwabantu
abayizigidi eziyisodwa kanye nezifo ezinzima okungenani

36:14.057 --> 36:17.847
eziyikhulu kwabantu abayizigidi eziyisodwa ngenxa yalokho.

36:17.847 --> 36:23.131
Futhi lokhu nakuba, kumele ngivume, abantu
abaningi empeleni abawadingi. Eqinisweni,

36:23.131 --> 36:26.648
ezimweni ezingama-98 kwezingu-100, azidingekile.

36:26.648 --> 36:33.471
Kodwa ungabona ukuthi abantu abafuni ukuhlola
ukuthi ngabe akudingekile; bafuna nje ukukwenza

36:33.471 --> 36:38.766
okwesibili. Lokho nakho akuyona imithi enengqondo.

36:38.766 --> 36:42.905
Futhi njengoba sikhuluma ngalolu daba,
ngithanda ukubuyela esihlokweni sokuvikelwa kwesizalo.

36:42.905 --> 36:49.420
Lelo ngelinye igama elidume kakhulu
elisetshenziswa abaningi kwezokwelapha, kodwa iningi

36:49.420 --> 36:53.528
labo alikaze libhekane nalesi sihloko nhlobo.

36:53.528 --> 37:00.041
Futhi lezi zigobe ezintathu zibonisa imisebenzi
emithathu ebalulekile ngalesi sihloko esakhiwe.

37:00.041 --> 37:05.117
Umugqa oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka
ngumsebenzi kaFox kusukela ngo-1971.

37:05.117 --> 37:11.310
Umsebenzi ononya ngokwemibono yendlela yokwenza, ngaleyo
ndlela ususelwe ezicabangelweni ezingamanga ngokuphelele.

37:11.310 --> 37:16.144
Futhi lapho ubona khona amandla okuvikeleka
komphakathi, phansi lapho, okuyifaktha R.

37:16.144 --> 37:22.006
Ngakho-ke lokhu kusho ukuthi leli zinga lokutheleleka
likhombisa ukuthi lesi sifo sidluliselwa kangakanani.

37:22.006 --> 37:30.032
Njengoba wazi, lokhu sekushiwo kaningi maqondana ne-coronavirus:
"Ifakthori ye-R kumele igcinwe ingaphansi kuka-1."

37:30.032 --> 37:36.038
Okungenani, bekuyi-2, njengoba bekushiwo.
Futhi lokho nakho kuphawuliwe lapha, 2.

37:36.038 --> 37:46.287
Ngakho-ke, ngaleli zinga le-R elingu-2 le-coronavirus, ngokusho
komsebenzi kaFox, okwasuselwa kukho konke kuze kube ngonyaka

37:46.287 --> 37:52.088
ka-2020, bekuzodingeka ukumelana komphakathi okungu-50 ekhulwini.

37:52.088 --> 37:56.330
Manje sekuyilokhu ngamaphesenti angama-60 noma angama-80 abikwe.

37:56.330 --> 38:01.234
Lokhu akunayo nhlobo imvumelwano
nanoma yiluphi ucwaningo lwesayensi.

38:01.234 --> 38:10.397
Nokho, njengoba umsebenzi kaFox nawo ususelwe ezicabangelweni
ezingamanga ngokuphelele, wabuyekezwa kabusha amaqembu

38:10.397 --> 38:15.550
ocwaningo amabili lapha ngo-2020. Futhi, inani le-R lingu-2.

38:15.550 --> 38:20.280
Iqembu elilodwa lifikelela ku-10%, elinye lifikelela ku-20%.

38:20.280 --> 38:26.841
Lokho kusho ukuthi lawa amaphesenti lapho kumele uthi, uma
uphakamisa umjovo wokugoma, amaphesenti angu-10 kuya

38:26.841 --> 38:34.297
kwangu-20 abantu ezweni bazowuthatha ngoba bengafuni ukucabanga
ngakho, baye kudokotela baze bawuthathe umjovo wokugoma.

38:34.297 --> 38:38.709
Angidingi noma yiziphi izinyathelo zokuphoqa
noma okunye ukuze ngivikele izinkomo zami.

38:38.709 --> 38:45.642
Futhi uma lesi sifo manje sesidluliselwa kalula kakhulu,
sinenani eliphezulu kakhulu le-R le-measles elilinganiselwa

38:45.642 --> 38:49.186
phakathi kuka-15 no-17, kodwa lapha akusekho kanjalo.

38:49.186 --> 38:54.707
Noma kunjalo, ngeke bakwazi ukufinyelela
ukuvikelwa kwezinkomo okungu-80% noma 90%; okungcono

38:54.707 --> 38:58.580
kakhulu, bazofinyelela ukuvikelwa okungu-60% kuya ku-70%.

38:58.580 --> 39:06.630
Futhi njengoba sasivele sinezinga elingaphezu kuka-80% ngaphambi
kokuba ukugoma kube yimpoqo, ngisho nalezi zifundo

39:06.630 --> 39:14.647
azisekeli umbono wokuthi ukuvikelwa komphakathi
kusebenza nhlobo – okuyinto, impela, ephikisanayo kakhulu.

39:14.647 --> 39:17.943
Futhi yigama elivela kwezokwelapha
kwezilwane, njengoba ubona: "ukuvikelwa kwesizalo"

39:17.943 --> 39:21.256
Hhayi-ke, lokho kuwudaba olubuzwayo...

39:21.256 --> 39:26.718
Khona-ke nakulo msebenzi akukwazi ukufakazelwa.

39:26.718 --> 39:33.374
Inkinga, nokho, ukuthi ngenani lamanje lokugoma, asiboni nje
kuphela ukuthi abantu asebekhulile abaningi kakhulu – njengoba

39:33.374 --> 39:39.435
ngishilo, labo abangaphezu kweminyaka engu-20 manje
benza ingxenye yazo zonke izimo – bayatheleleka, kodwa futhi

39:39.435 --> 39:42.814
iningi lalabo abathelelekile manje ngabantu abagonyiwe.

39:42.814 --> 39:48.763
Ngakho-ke ngesikhathi sokuvuka kwesifo ngasinye, uma ubuza,
ungathola ukuthi iziphathimandla ziyazithandabuza

39:48.763 --> 39:55.280
kakhulu, kodwa ngandlela thile ungathola ukuthi okungenani
amaphesenti angama-30 labo abathintekile sebegonyelwe.

39:55.280 --> 40:00.263
Manje sekuphelile ngalokho ukuthi
kube nomphumela wokuvikela lapha.

40:00.263 --> 40:06.393
Kwakukhona umuntu owake wahlola imibiko engu-18
yokuqhuma kwezifo zomkhuhlane we-measles ezinganeni zesikole.

40:06.393 --> 40:10.260
Izinga lokugonywa laliphakathi kuka-71 no-99.8 ekhulwini.

40:10.260 --> 40:17.399
Futhi lokho kuyabonakala: uma manje sesinayo eJalimane, isibonelo
– futhi sinokugoma okuphoqelekile ezinganeni zasenurseri

40:17.399 --> 40:21.516
nezasezikoleni – ungacabanga ukuthi awudingi ngisho ukubuza.

40:21.516 --> 40:27.374
Impela bonke sebegonyelwe, ngaphandle
kwalokho bebengasoze babe esikoleni.

40:27.374 --> 40:33.728
Ngakho-ke lokho kusho ukuthi lezi zinga
eziphezulu zokugoma azivimbeli lutho nhlobo.

40:33.728 --> 40:41.313
Ngokuphambene nalokho, lezi zifo ziyaphindwa, ikakhulukazi uma
ucabanga ukuthi izigonyo sezilethelwa futhi

40:41.313 --> 40:47.755
izingane azihlukaniswanga kodwa zisahlala
ezikhungweni zomphakathi nabanye abantwana.

40:47.755 --> 40:54.199
Lokho kungase kubangele ukusabalala okwengeziwe kwe-measles.

40:54.199 --> 41:02.259
Lona ucwaningo olwenziwe nguGoldman noMiller, abalibale
ngendlela ehlukile iminyaka emibili ngenani elihlukene

41:02.259 --> 41:06.595
lamazwe. Lapha, isibonelo, kubalwa emazweni angama-30.

41:06.595 --> 41:18.674
Lapha ungabona inani lokugonywa izingane eziluthola
ku-X-axis ezansi kanye nezinga lokufa kwezingane ku-Y-axis.

41:18.674 --> 41:27.987
Lokhu akusona isibangela, kodwa kuyisibopho esiqinile kakhulu,
okusho ukuthi i-R ingu-0.70, okubalulekile ezingeni

41:27.987 --> 41:37.743
lika-0.1%, okusho ukuthi lapho izifanekiso zenziwa kaningi
emazweni, izinga lokufa kwezingane ezisanda kuzalwa liyanda.

41:37.743 --> 41:48.761
Akwenzeki ukudedusa ubangela kulokhu. Nokho, uma
ukuhambisana kukhulu, ubangela kumele kuphenywe.

41:48.761 --> 41:51.173
Futhi empeleni, kufanele kube ngokuphambene nalokho.

41:51.173 --> 41:56.176
Lapho izingane zithola imijovo yokugoma eminingi,
kufanele zibe nempilo engcono futhi kube namathuba

41:56.176 --> 41:59.522
amancane okufa. Nokho, lo mqondo wokuhambisana awukho.

41:59.522 --> 42:06.758
Lokhu kusho ukuthi le ngxenye yokuhambisana
ngokuqinisekile ikhombisa ukuthi imijovo ayivikeli impilo

42:06.758 --> 42:11.196
yezingane, ngoba ngaphandle kokuhambisana akukho ubangela.

42:11.196 --> 42:17.030
Futhi lobu budlelwano bokuthi ukugonywa
kuthuthukisa impilo yezingane abukho.

42:17.030 --> 42:26.908
Futhi imiphumela yangempela yalezi zivaksini ingabonakala
ocwaningweni lwezivaksini olwenziwe muva nje yi-GSK eNgilandi –

42:26.908 --> 42:32.174
ngesikhathi sokubhekwa sezinsuku ezingama-42, esifushane kakhulu.

42:32.174 --> 42:36.831
Ngakho-ke kusho ukuthi izifo
ezingapheli azikwazi nhlobo ukuxilongwa.

42:36.831 --> 42:42.205
Nokho, akuzange kwenziwe ucwaningo lokubuka
izingane ezisanda kuzalwa; esikhundleni salokho, lezo

42:42.205 --> 42:45.000
zingane zathola imijovo njengengxenye yocwaningo.

42:45.000 --> 42:50.977
Ngakho-ke lokho sekuyindaba okudlula
ukukhathazeka okukhulu kwezokuziphatha.

42:50.977 --> 42:59.300
Amaphesenti angamashumi amahlanu ezingane –
njengokwamukela kulo mhlaba – imiphumela engemihle engafunwanga.

42:59.300 --> 43:08.564
6.1% bathinteka emisebenzini yabo yansuku
zonke. 2% babone imiphumela emibi enzima.

43:08.564 --> 43:15.625
Futhi konke lokhu kwakuyinjongo yokugoma
okwakumele kuvikele izingane kamuva empilweni yazo.

43:15.625 --> 43:20.017
Izingane eziyi-10 ekhulwini
kwadingeka zivakashele igumbi likaxakeka.

43:20.017 --> 43:25.892
Ingabe yilokho esenza sigonyelwe? Ingabe
kuyenziwa izifundo ezifana nalezi? Lokho akunakwenzeka!

43:25.892 --> 43:32.573
Uma kukhona ukugoma okucatshangelwayo nhlobo, ngokombono wami
kungaba kuphela ngoba kwezinye izimo ezingavamile

43:32.573 --> 43:38.923
kakhulu kungaholela ekulimaleni komuntu
okukhulunywa ngaye, okungenzeka ukuthi akukwazi ukuphikwa.

43:38.923 --> 43:46.571
Kodwa njengoba zivamile kangaka, umuntu angazibuza
kuphela ukuthi ziyiziphi izinhlobo zezinto eziyingozi.

43:46.571 --> 43:57.200
Futhi uma ubuke isikhathi eside, ngemva kwezinsuku ezingama-180,
abantu abangu-3.4% babe nezifo ezingapheli ezintsha.

43:57.200 --> 44:01.855
Akungeneki ukubikezela ukuthi
kuzokwenzekani kulaba bantwana eminyakeni ezayo.

44:01.855 --> 44:08.265
Ngakho ake sifingqe isiphetho: Imfiva yezingane yisifo
esidala esasivame ukuthinta izingane kodwa esasivame

44:08.265 --> 44:12.337
ukungathinti abantu abadala. Lokho manje sekushintshile.

44:12.337 --> 44:23.578
Nokho, isimo lesi asivamile ukubangela izinkinga
ezinzima noma ukufa ezinganeni uma singelashwa.

44:23.578 --> 44:32.764
Ngakho-ke isimo esingaba nomthelela
omuhle empilweni kamuva empilweni.

44:32.764 --> 44:43.049
Awuguguleki kuphela ku-measles, kodwa futhi
unesengozi ephansi kakhulu yokutholela ezinye izifo eziningi.

44:43.049 --> 44:50.765
Futhi yingakho umjovo wokugoma ovikela ongafanele
unikeze uhlobo oluthile lokuvikelwa awunakucatshangelwa

44:50.765 --> 44:54.265
ngempela ekugomeni i-measles noma kwezinye izifo.

44:54.265 --> 45:02.919
Ngoba yonke lezi zokugoma zingaholela
ezifweni ezinzima ezingalindelekile ngisho nokufa.

45:02.919 --> 45:12.252
Noma lokhu kungavamile njengoba abameli bokugoma bekusho,
ingozi ayikwazi ukubikezelwa ezimweni zabantu ngabanye.

45:12.252 --> 45:20.795
Futhi okulahlekile kulo lonke lolu kuxoxwa – kuhlanganise
nokuphoqelelwa ukugoma i-COVID-19 – wukuthi, ngokungafani

45:20.795 --> 45:30.153
nezindlela zokwelapha, sihlala sikhuluma ngokwelapha abantu
abaphilile. Futhi yilapho izinga libekwa phezulu kakhulu.

45:30.153 --> 45:36.984
Futhi uma manje senze umjovo wokugoma
i-measles ube yimpoqo futhi niwulandele,

45:36.984 --> 45:42.220
umphakathi uzoba umphakathi wabantu abangenangqondo.

45:42.220 --> 45:51.571
AmaSchildbürger, abazame ukususa utshani odongeni lwedolobha
futhi bafika nombono wokuthi ingadliwa yinkomo, kodwa bengazi

45:51.571 --> 46:00.385
ukuthi bangayiletha kanjani inkomo odongeni lwedolobha,
bafika nombono ohlakaniphile wokuyidonsa phezulu ngentambo.

46:00.385 --> 46:06.105
Ngeshwa, lapho inkomo ifinyelela phezulu, yaboshwa ngentambo.

46:06.105 --> 46:13.596
Futhi lokho kuyisimo esifanayo
esinakho ngomjovo wokugoma i-measles.

46:13.596 --> 46:14.882
Ngiyabonga ngokunaka kwenu.