WEBVTT

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Ukuzikhusela, ukumelana kunye namandla bekusoloko
kucatshangelwa phantse kuphela ngokwentetho yobundlobongela.

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Ubuncinci xa kuziwa ekuchaseni iingqonyela ezikhohlakeleyo
ngokukodwa kunye neendunankulu ezingazenzisayo, phantse kukho

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isivumelwano esipheleleyo sokuba ubundlobongela
bunokoyiswa kuphela ngobundlobongela

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obuphendulayo, nokuba imfazwe izisa uxolo, njalo njalo.

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Ubuncinci ukusukela "kwisiganeko esitshintsha izinto"
esabhengezwa nguNtshatsheli wamaxesha othile, u-Olaf Scholz,

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kwiBhunga laseJamani (iBundestag) ngoFebruwari 2022,
kubekho ukuncipha okukhulu kwengxoxo ukuya

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kwiingxoxo zemfazwe kuphela – kwaye kungekuphela nje eJamani.

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Akusekho ngxoxo malunga nokuba umkhosi kufuneka usetyenziswe na,
kodwa ngoku ingxoxo imalunga nokuba zingaphi

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izixhobo ekufuneka zinikezelwe, loluphi uhlobo
lwezixhobo, oku kufanele kwenzeke nini, njalo njalo.

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Abaxolisi bayahlaziswa ngokubizwa ngokuba
'ngabaxolisi abangamashwankike' okanye bayahlekiswa

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ngokuthi abakwaziyo nto kwaye abaqondi ihlabathi.

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Udibaniso luthathwa njengolungaphaya, kwaye
izenzo ezingenabundlobongela azixatyiswanga.

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Oku kudla ngokuthethelelwa ngoko kubizwa ngokuba
'lilungelo lokuzikhusela' (iSihloko 51 soMgaqo-siseko we-UN),

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elithi, umzekelo, i-Ukraine okanye i-Israel zibe nelungelo lalo.

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Ngokwendalo, lonke ilizwe linalo eli lungelo.

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Nangona kunjalo, ukuzikhusela kufuneka
kwenziwe kusetyenziswa eyona ndlela isebenzayo.

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Abantu abaninzi babonakala bejonga ukhuselo lomkhosi njengowona
mhlobo wokusebenza kakhulu wokuzikhusela kwasekuqaleni.

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Kodwa ingaba bayinyani? Ingaba ngenene akukho zindlela zingunye
ngaphandle kwemfazwe, ubundlobongela nokuhanjiswa

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kwezixhobo, njengoko amajelo eendaba esenza sikholelwe –
abonakala ngathi asebengamazithethi abaxhasi bemikhosi?

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Ingaba ukhuselo kufuneka lusoloko luyimilikhiya ukuze lusebenze?

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Okanye zikhona ezinye iindlela zokhuselo loluntu
ezisebenza ngokufanayo okanye ezisebenza ngcono nangakumbi?

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Kwaye zeziphi, njengesiphumo esongezelelweyo, ezithintela
ukonqunyulwa kwezixeko ezipheleleyo neendawo ezinkulu

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zomhlaba, kwaye zinciphise kakhulu inani labantu abaswelekayo?

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Into enye eqinisekileyo yile: iimfazwe zisoloko
zibangele intshabalalo eyoyikekayo nokuphaluka kwegazi

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ngaphandle kokufezekisa iinjongo zazo ebezijolisiwe.

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Erica Chenoweth waseWesleyan University eMiddleton, USA –
ingcaphephe eqatshelweyo kwimiba yobunqolobi – kunye nogxa wakhe

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uMaria J. Stephan bahlolisise zonke iingxabano ezaziwayo
kwihlabathi jikelele phakathi kuka-1900 no-2006 ezazibandakanya

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ilungelo lokuzimela, ukususwa kweenkokeli zezopolitiko
okanye ukugxothwa kwamagunya omkhosi abathimbe ilizwe.

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Kula, abangama-218 babexhobe kwaye
abali-105 babengasebenzisi bunyani.

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Uphando lwakhe lwapapashwa ngo-2011 phantsi kwesihloko esithi:
"Why Civil Resistance Works. The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent

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Conflict" kwaye ngoku lukwafumaneka
ngesiJamani ("Isizathu Sokuba Inkcaso Yabemi Isenze –

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Ingqiqo Yobuchule Yengxabano Engabikho Nodlame").

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Olu phononongo lwazalisa isikhewu kuphando ngokuphendula umbuzo
wokuba ingaba ukubuyiselwa kwezizwe ezithinjweyo, inkcaso

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yokuthinjwa, iirhuluneli ezilawulayo, iirhuluneli ezicinezayo
kunye nokuwiswa kweurhulumente ezingathandwayo kuphumelela

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ngakumbi ngenkcaso engenabundlobongela okanye enobundlobongela.

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Olu phononongo ngoko lwaba yimpumelelo yokuqala kwinqanaba lamazwe
ngamazwe, lutyhila ukuba iinkxalabo eziqhelekileyo azisekho.

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Ekugqibeleni, olu phononongo lubonise ngokucacileyo ukuba
iindlela zokuchasa ezingenabundlobongela

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ziphantse zaphumelela kabini kunezo zokuchasa
ezixhobileyo – eYurophu, eMelika, e-Asiya nase-Afrika.

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Phakathi kuka-2000 no-2006, izenzo ezingenabundlobongela zibe
nempumelelo ngokuphindwe kahlanu kunezivukelo ezixhobileyo.

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Ababhali bathi: "...ingakumbi kumaphulo afuna utshintsho
kulawulo okanye inkululeko kulawulo lwamanye amazwe,

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inkcaso engenabundlobongela ngokucacileyo ingcono kakhulu" .

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Ezi ziphumo azikachashwanga kude kube namhlanje, njengoko
zisekelwe kwidatha ebanzi kunye nohlalutyo lwenzululwazi

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olucokisekileyo. Oku kukhokelele kwiziphumo ezicacileyo.

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Ngokutsho kwababhali bolu phononongo, akukho siqinisekiso
sokuba inkcaso engenabundlobongela iza kukhokelela kwimpumelelo.

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Noko ke, kwimeko yezenzo zobundlobongela, izinga lempumelelo
beliphantsi kakhulu nge-22 pesenti

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kunakwimeko yokuxhasa okungabundlobongela,
eyayiphumelele kwiimeko ezingaphezu kwe-50 pesenti.

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Inqaku elinomdla: Nkqu neendlela zentshukumo ezixubeneyo,
ezidibanisa inkcaso enobukhulu

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engangxwabangxwaba namaphiko anobundlobongela, aziphumeleli
kangako kuneephulo ezingangxwabangxwaba kuphela.

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Ukudibanisa ubundlobongela nezenzo
ezingenabundlobongela akukhokeleli kwimpumelelo.

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Ababhali bolu phononongo bathathe iphulo njengeliphumeleleyo
ukuba iinjongo zalo zifikelelwe ngokupheleleyo (100%) kwisithuba

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sonyaka omnye ukusukela kwinqanaba eliphezulu lemisebenzi.

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Ngokophononongo, amaphulo aphumeleleyo angenabundlobongela
aye aquka uHlaziyo lwase-Iran (1977–1979) kunye

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noNtshukumo wamaPhilippines wamandla abantu (1983–1986).

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Ngo-2005, iintshukumo ezingapheliyo
nezicwangcisiweyo ezingenabundlobongela zaphelisa

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ukuthathwa kwelizwe laseLebhanon ngamanye amazwe (p. 43).

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"E-East Timor," ngokutsho kwababhali, "intshukumo yokuchasa
engenabundlobongela yanceda ukususa

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ngempumelelo imikhosi yase-Indonesia e-East Timor
nokufumana inkululeko yalo mmandla wawuveliswe."

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Yintoni inkcazo yokuxhasa ngaphandle kobundlobongela emsebenzini?

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Iindidi ngeendidi zezenzo ziyacingeleka.

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Kumzekelo esisandul' ukukhankanya, bekukho inkcaso
engenabundlobongela ebandakanya izigidi

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zabathathi-nxaxheba ngohlobo lwezibhiyozo zikawonke-wonke,
iibhulukhwe kunye nokungathobeli okulungelelanisiweyo.

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Oku kuye kwahlutha utshaba ngokucwangcisiweyo imithombo
yalo yamandla kwezopolitiko, kwezoqoqosho nakwezomkhosi.

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Oku kwafezekiswa ngenkxaso esebenzayo yosomashishini, abasebenzi,
imibutho yabasebenzi, abafundi, iingcali, abefundisi, abantu

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abatsha, abafazi, amahlwempu, imibutho yabalimi kunye
namanye amaqela ukuthobela kwabo kunye nezibonelelo

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zabo urhulumente obuxhwayelweyo ebengaxhomekeke kuzo.

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Kwakukho izenzo zobuchule, ezifana nokungathobeli
umthetho ngabasebenzi base-Iran kwizikhululo zombane.

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Rhoqo ngokuhlwa, bebengacima umbane iiyure ezimbini ukuze
baphazamise iindaba zikarhulumente

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zangokuhlwa, baze banike abaqhankqalazi abebephula
umthetho wokungaphumi izindlu ithuba lobumnyama.

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Amaxesha amaninzi, izenzo zokuchasa ezingenabundlobongela
bezitsala abaqhankqalazi abaninzi ezitalatweni kangangokuba

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amapolisa kunye nemikhosi yokhuseleko yecala
eliphikisayo babengenaso isixa esaneleyo sezixhobo

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okanye abasebenzi ukuze banyanzelise izithintelo.

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Kaloku, awunakuthi ngesiquphe ufake amashumi amawaka
abantu entolongweni xa uneeseli ezimbalwa nje ezingenamntu.

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Umzekelo, amashumi amawaka abantu enze udonga
ukunqanda iitanki namajoni athembekileyo kurhulumente.

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Endaweni yokuhlasela imikhosi yokhuseleko lomlawuli,
abaqhankqalazi abangabemi bahlala phantsi phambi kweetanki baza

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banika amajoni iimpawu zoxolo ezinjengeentyatyambo,
iitshokolethi okanye ilemonade ye-orenji

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njengembuliso – baza babongoza amajoni ukuba azimanye nabachasi.

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Izenzo ezingenabundlobongela nazo zaphumelela kwiindawo apho
iinzame zokudlamka zazisilele khona kwiminyaka embalwa nje

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edlulileyo, njengakwimeko yentshukumo yePhilippine People Power.

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Kutheni amaphulo angenabundlobongela
ekugqibeleni enethuba eliphezulu kakhulu lokuphumelela?

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Ababhali bolu phononongo bacaphula ezi zizathu zilandelayo:

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1. Amaphulo angenabundlobongela
anokuhlanganisa abantu abaninzi kakhulu.

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Isenzo esiqhelekileyo senkohlakalo besinabathathi-nxaxheba
abangama-50,000, ngelixa amaphulo angenankohlakalo

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ebengabathathi-nxaxheba abangama-200,000 ngokomyinge.

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Oku kwenza kwaba nokwenzeka ukuba kuthathwe
amanyathelo abanzi, nto leyo eyonyusa

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iindleko zokugcina imeko-ntswakuba yorhulumente.

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Amaphulo angenabundlobongela akwavuleleke ngakumbi
ekuthatha inxaxheba kwabafazi nabantu abadala, njengoko ezi

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zenzo zineengozi ezimbalwa kunezokuchasa ezinobundlobongela.

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Ngokuka-Erica Chenoweth, ukuba kufikelelwa kubantu
abaninzi abohlukeneyo, urhulumente akanakukwazi ukugcina amandla

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akhe ngokuthatha inxaxheba okungamashumi amabini ekhulwini.

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Ewe, nokuba kukho intatho-nanye pesenti kuphela
yokuthatha inxaxheba, kuya kuba nzima kurhulumente.

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2. Abantu ababandakanyekayo kunzima ngakumbi ukubahlula.

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Abathathi-nxaxheba kumaphulo angenabundlobongela bahlala bemele
iinxalenye ezahluke kakhulu zoluntu, njengoko amaphulo

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angenabundlobongela edla ngokubandakanya abantu beesini
ezahlukeneyo, iminyaka eyahlukeneyo, iinkolo ezahlukeneyo,

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iintlanga ezahlukeneyo, iimbono ezahlukeneyo, imisebenzi
eyahlukeneyo kunye neminqwazi yentlalo noqoqosho eyahlukeneyo.

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Oku kwenza kube nzima ngakumbi kubachasi ukuba
bahlukanise abathathi-nxaxheba baze banyanzelise ucinezelo.

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3. Amaphulo angangxwabangxwaba anamathuba
amaninzi okuphuhlisa amaqhinga neengcinga ezintsha

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ngenxa yobuninzi babathathi-nxaxheba abohlukeneyo.

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Ngokophononongo, impumelelo ayixhomekekanga ekubeni ulawulo
olukuthiwa lulawulo olungekho phantsi

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komthetho, olomeleleyo okanye oluthambileyo,
okanye oluzamileyo ukucinezela iphulo ngodlame.

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Ezinye iingenelo zokuchasa okungenabundlobongela zezi:

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- ixesha eliphakathi elifutshane kakhulu (iminyaka
emi-3 endaweni yeminyaka eyi-9 yengxabano ezinogonyamelo)

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- ukufa, ukwenzakala, ukonakala kunye
nokwenzakala kwengqondo okuncinci kakhulu

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- ithuba eliphezulu kakhulu lokuba idemokhrasi elandelayo
iza kuyibeka ngaphakathi kweminyaka emihlanu yongquzulwano.

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Nokuba iinkathazo ezinogonyamelo ziyaphumelela, kusazakungabikho
iimeko zedemokhrasi elizweni ekuhambeni kwexesha.

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Iziphumo zihlala ziba kukuphindiselwa kubaxhasi bongawolawulo
wangaphambili, ukungahoywa kwamalungelo eziqeleleyo,

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njalo njalo, nto leyo ebangela ukuba imeko elizweni emva
koomlo abaxhobileyo ihlale icinezela ngakumbi kunangaphambili.

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- Ukumelana okungabikho budlova kunomngcipheko ophantsi wemfazwe
yamakhaya elandelayo, njengoko phantse

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isiqingatha sazo zonke iimfazwe eziphumeleleyo
zikhokelela kwimfazwe entsha kwisithuba seminyaka eli-10.

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Ingqondo yokuba ubundlobongela bunokoyiswa kuphela
ngobundlobongela obuphendulayo ke ngoko ayichanekanga.

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Zininzi kakhulu ezinye iindlela eziphumeleleyo endaweni yamandla
omkhosi, ezithi, ngokungafaniyo nemikhankaso

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yomkhosi, zizise uxolo lokwenene,
olusisigxina, olulungileyo nolwedemokhrasi kwelo lizwe.

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Okwangoku, u-Erica Chenoweth uqhubekile nophando lwakhe
phakathi kuka-2004 no-2019 waza wafumanisa oku kulandelayo:

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Uvukelo olungenabundlobongela luyaqhubeka
luphumelela ngakumbi kunezo zibandakanya ubundlobongela.

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Noko ke, oorhulumente sele bexhotyiswe ngcono
ukujongana nokuxhathisa okungenabundlobongela.

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Oodiktatsha kunye noorhulumente abangxowankulu
bafunde ukucinezela iintshukumo ezingenabundlobongela.

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Intshukumo yokuchasa engangqalaziyo ijongene
nezi ngxaki zilandelayo kwinkulungwane yama-21:

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- Ukwazisa okungathathi cala kuthintelwa ngucenzasi nangokubekwa
iliso, ngelixa iindaba zobuxoki zisasazwa ngoorhulumente.

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- Iintshukumo ezingenabundlobongela
ezinamaphiko anobundlobongela ziye zanda.

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Abaqhankqalazi abasebenzisa ubundlobongela baye babaqala
ukusetyenziswa ngokwandayo ukuzisa ubundlobongela kwintshukumo.

11:16.517 --> 11:23.033
I-agent provocateur ngumntu osebenza egameni lamagunya afana
namapolisa, i-ofisi yomtshutshisi woluntu okanye iinkonzo

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eziyimfihlo, ukuze angene ngokufihlakeleyo
kwiqela okanye umbutho aze akhuthaze amalungu

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awo ukuba enze izenzo ezingekho mthethweni.

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La maphephelo anobundlobongela
ayinciphisa impumelelo yentshukumo.

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Ngoko ke: Lumkela ukungenelela
okujoliswe kubantu abanobundlobongela!

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- Izenzo namathuba edijithali zixatyiswe ngokugqithisileyo.

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Nangona kunokwenzeka ukuhlanganisa abantu
ngokukhawuleza nge-intanethi, oku akusoloko kukhokelela

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kumaphulo exesha elide apho abantu kufuneka bazane buqu.

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- Amaxesha amaninzi, kufakwa ixesha namandla
amancinci kakhulu ekucwangciseni amaphulo

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nasekukhuthazeni umanyano ngaphakathi kwentshukumo.

11:59.861 --> 12:06.124
Iphulo eliyimpumelelo lokuxhasa libafuna
amakhonkco aqinileyo amaqela apho abantu bazana

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kakuhle kwaye bezixhasana xa kukho uxinezelelo.

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Nangona kukho le miceli mngeni, inkcaso
engenabundlobongela iyaqhubeka nokuba yeyona iphumelelayo.

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Kutheni indlela engenabundlobongela ingakhange
isetyenziswe rhoqo kangaka ukuza kuthi ga ngoku?

12:20.442 --> 12:25.223
Ababhali bolu phononongo bakrokrela ukuba oku
kubangelwa kukunqongophala kolwazi ngendalo, amathuba

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kunye namathuba empumelelo okuchasa okungabikho bunyani.

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Akumangalisi ukuba olu phononongo luyatyeshelwa kakhulu
ngabezopolitiko, amajelo eendaba kunye nabaphengululi.

12:33.468 --> 12:39.340
Kaloku, inzuzo efunyanwa kwiimfazwe ingabeka
esichengeni ukuba kungaqondwa ukuba zikhona

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iindlela ezisebenza kakhulu kunamandla ezixhobo.

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Oku kungenxa yokuba imodeli yeshishini
yeshishini lezixhobo isekelwe kwibali elithi inkcaso

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enogonyamelo iyimfuneko kwaye ibaluleke kakhulu.

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Isiphelo: Kufuneka sikwazi ukuba noxolo, hayi imfazwe!

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Ngoko ke nceda nisasaze ilizwi ngokwabelana
ngale nkqubo kumakhasi onxibelelwano, umzekelo!

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Kuphela xa iziphumo zolu phando zamkelweyo kunokuthintelwa
ukuchitheka kwegazi okukhulu nokutshatyalaliswa okongezelelweyo,

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kwaye abo bazuza emfazweni bangasayi
kuphinda bakwazi ukwenza inzuzo ngokubandezeleka

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kwabantu nokutshatyalaliswa kwamazwe aphhela.

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Musa ukuxhomekeka kumakhasi onxibelelwano kwi-intanethi, kodwa
yazi abantu abanengqondo efanayo onokubathemba kubomi bokwenyani.

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Kuphela ngokubambisana esinokuyaphula umjikelo wogonyamelo.

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Sidinga abantu abamela uxolo
ngomanyano kwaye bakhokele ngomzekelo.

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