WEBVTT

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Ukuvikelwa, ukumelana namandla kube ngokuvamile
kubhekwa cishe ngokuphelele njengendlela yobudlova.

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Okungenani uma kukhulunywa ngokumelana nezikhulu ezingabazi
ezingenamusa nababusi abangenamigaqo, cishe bonke

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bayavuma ukuthi udlame lungahlulwa kuphela
ngodlame olubuyisayo, ukuthi impi iletha ukuthula, njll.

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Kusukela okungenani ngesikhathi sokuthiwa 'iphuzu lokuguquka'
esamenyezelwa uNgqongqoshe wezezimali ngaleso sikhathi, u-Olaf

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Scholz, eBundestag yaseJalimane ngoFebhuwari 2022,
kube nokuncipha okukhulu kwengxoxo kwaze kwagxila kuphela

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ezimpikiswaneni zempi – futhi hhayi eJalimane kuphela.

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Asisekho ukuxoxwa ngokuthi ngabe amandla ezempi kufanele
asetshenziswe yini, kodwa sekukhulunywa kuphela

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ngokuthi kufanele kunikezwe izikhali ezingaki,
izinhlobo zazo, nini lokhu okufanele kwenzeke, njll.

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Abaphikisi bempi bayahlambalazwa
njengama-'phikisi bempi abampofu' noma bayahlekiswa

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njengabangahlakaniphile nabangazi lutho ngomhlaba.

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Ubudlelwano bamazwe bubhekwa njengokwesibili,
futhi izenzo ezingahileli udlame azihlonishwa.

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Lokhu kuvame ukusekelwa ngalokho okubizwa ngokuthi
"ilungelo lokuzivikela" (Isigaba 51 soMqulu weZizwe

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Ezihlangene), elinikezwa, isibonelo, i-Ukraine noma i-Israel.

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Ngokwemvelo, isifundazwe ngasinye sinalo ilungelo.

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Nokho, ukuzivikela kufanele kwenziwe
kusetshenziswa indlela esebenza kahle kakhulu.

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Abantu abaningi babonakala bebheka ukuvikelwa kwezempi
njengendlela ephumelela kakhulu yokuzivikela kusukela ekuqaleni.

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Kodwa ngabe empeleni benza kahle? Ingabe ngempela akukho ezinye
izindlela ngaphandle kwempi, udlame nokulethwa kwezikhali,

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njengoba iziteshi zezindaba ezinkulu zisifuna ukukholisa –
ezibonakala sengathi sezibe izikhulumi zabasekeli bezempi?

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Ingabe ukuvikela kuhlale kumele
kube kwezempi ukuze kube nempumelelo?

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Noma ngabe kukhona ezinye izindlela zokuvikela komphakathi
ezisebenza kahle ngokufanayo noma ngisho eziphumelela kakhulu?

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Futhi okubangela ngokuyisiphetho ukuvimbela
ukubhujiswa kwamadolobha aphelele nezindawo ezinkulu

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zomhlaba nokunciphisa kakhulu inani labantu ababulawa?

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Into eyodwa eqinisekile: izimpi zivame
ukubangela ukonakala okukhulu nokuchitheka kwegazi

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ngaphandle kokufeza ngempela izinhloso zazo.

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Erica Chenoweth waseWesleyan University eMiddleton, e-USA –
ingcweti eyaziwayo ngezindaba zobuphekula – kanye nomlingani

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wakhe uMaria J. Stephan, bahlola zonke izingxabano ezaziwayo
emhlabeni wonke phakathi kuka-1900 no-2006 ezihlobene

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nelungelo lokuzinqumela, ukususwa kwezikhulu zezepolitiki
ezikhundleni noma ukuxoshwa kwamandla ezempi ababambe izwe.

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Kulawa, abangu-218 babephethe izikhali
kanti abangu-105 babengadli ubudlova.

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Ucwaningo lwakhe lwashicilelwa ngo-2011 ngaphansi kwesihloko
esithi: "Kungani ukumelana komphakathi kusebenza. I-logiki yamasu

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yokuphatha izingxabano ngaphandle kodlame" futhi
manje lutholakala nangesiJalimane ("Why Civil Resistance

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Works – The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict").

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Ucwaningo lugcwalise igebe ocwaningweni ngokuphendula umbuzo
wokuthi ngabe ukubuyiselwa kwezifunda ezibanjwe, ukumelana

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nokubusa kwangaphandle, izifundazwe ezibusiwe ngamandla,
izinhlaka ezicindezelayo kanye nokuphonswa phansi

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kukahulumeni ongathandeki kuphumelela kakhulu ngokumelana
okungadluleli ekubulaweni noma ngokumelana okubandakanya udlame.

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Lolu cwaningo kwaba yimpumelelo yokuqala emazingeni
omhlaba, lwembula ukuthi ukungabaza okuvamile akunakusekelwa.

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Ekugcineni, ucwaningo lwabonisa ngokusobala ukuthi izindlela
zokumelana ezingezona ezodlame zaziphumelela

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cishe kabili kunokumelana okunamasosha –
eYurophu kanye naseMelika, e-Asia nase-Afrika.

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Phakathi konyaka ka-2000 no-2006, izenzo ezingezona ezodlame
zaphumelela izikhathi ezinhlanu kunokuvuka okunamasosha.

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Ababhali bathi: "...ikakhulukazi emikhankasweni efuna
ukushintsha uhulumeni noma ukukhululwa ekubusweni kwangaphandle,

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ukumelana ngaphandle kodlame ngokusobala kungcono kakhulu" .

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Le miphumela ayikaphikiswa kuze kube manje,
njengoba isekelwe kudatha ebanzi nokuhlaziywa

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kwesayensi okujulile. Lokhu kuholele emiphumeleni ecacile.

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Ngokwababhali bocwaningo, akukho siqinisekiso
sokuthi ukumelana okungaphushani kuzoholela empumelelweni.

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Nokho, ezimweni zezenzo zodlame, izinga lokuphumelela beliphansi
kakhulu, lalingama-22 ekhulwini, kunalokho lokumelana ngaphandle

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kodlame, olwaluphumelele ngaphezu kuka-50 ekhulwini lamacala.

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Inqaku elithakazelisayo: Ngisho nezindlela ezihlangene
zokunyakaza ezihlanganisa ukumelana okukhulu

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okungenabudlova nezigaba ezinobudlova aziphumeleli
kangako kunemikhankaso engenabudlova ngokuphelele.

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Ukuhlanganisa udlame nezenzo ezingadlame akholisi ukuphumelela.

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Ababhali bocwaningo babheka umkhankaso
njengempumelelo uma izinhloso zawo zafezeka ngokuphelele (100%)

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kungakapheli unyaka owodwa kusukela phezulu kwemisebenzi.

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Ngokocwaningo, imikhankaso ephumelelayo engenabudlova
yayihlanganisa uMvukelo wase-Iran (1977–1979) kanye

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noMkhankaso Wamandla Abantu wasePhilippines (1983–1986).

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Ngo-2005, izenzo ezingapheli nezihlelwe kahle ezingahileli
udlame zaphothula ukubusa kwangaphandle eLebhanoni .

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"E-East Timor," ngokwababhali, "umkhankaso wokumelana
ongenabudlova wasiza ukususa ngempumelelo amasosha ase-Indonesia

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e-East Timor nokuzuza ukuzimela kwesifunda esathathwayo."

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Ukuphikisa okungaphandli kusho ukuthini ngempela?

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Kungenzeka ukucabanga izinhlobo eziningi zezenzo.

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Ezibonelweni ezishiwo nje, kwaba nokumelana
okungaphandle kodlame okubandakanya izigidi zabantu ngendlela

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yezibhikisho ezinkulu, iziteleko nokungasebenzisani okuhleliwe.

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Lokhu kwehlise ngokuhleleka umphikisi emithonjeni
yaso yamandla kwezombusazwe, kwezomnotho nakwezempi.

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Lokhu kwafezeka ngokusekelwa okusebenzayo kwabosomabhizinisi,
abasebenzi, izinhlangano zabasebenzi, abafundi, ochwepheshe,

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abefundisi, intsha, abesifazane, abampofu,
izinhlangano zabalimi nezinye izinhlangano okuthembele

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kuzo uhulumeni ekulaleleni kwazo nasezinsizeni zazo.

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Kwakukhona izenzo zobuciko, njengokungezwani
nomthetho kwabantu base-Iran abasebenza eziteshini zikagesi.

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Njalo kusihlwa, bacisha ugesi amahora amabili ukuze baphazamise
izindaba zikahulumeni zasebusuku futhi banikeze ababhikishi

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abaphula umthetho wokuvinjelwa kokuhamba ithuba lobumnyama.

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Imvamisa, izenzo zokumelana ngaphandle kodlame zazihilela
ababhikishi abaningi emigwaqweni kangangokuba amaphoyisa namabutho

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okuphepha ehlangothini eliphikisayo babengenazo izinsiza
noma abasebenzi abaningi okwanele ukuqinisekisa ukuvinjelwa.

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Phela awukwazi ngokuzumayo ukubeka izinkulungwane eziningi
zabantu ejele uma uneziseli ezimbalwa kuphela ezingenalutho.

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Isibonelo, izinkulungwane eziningi zabantu zenza udonga
ukuvimba amatanki namasosha abathembekile kuhulumeni.

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Esikhundleni sokuhlasela amabutho okuphepha kahulumeni,
ababhikishi bezakhamuzi bahlala phansi phambi kwamathangi

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bawethula amasosha izimpawu zokuthula ezifana nezimbali,
amachokolethi noma ilemonadi ye-orenji njengesibingelelo

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– babizela amasosha ukuba ahlanganyele nabaphikisi.

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Izenzo ezingahileli udlame nazo zaphumelela ezindaweni
lapho umzamo wodlame wawuhlulekile eminyakeni embalwa eyedlule,

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njengasekusebenzeni komkhankaso wePhilippine People Power.

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Kungani imikhankaso engenodlame ekugcineni
inethuba eliphezulu kangaka lokuphumelela?

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Ababhali bocwaningo bakhomba lezi zizathu ezilandelayo:

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1. Imikhankaso engenodlame ingaqhuba abantu abaningi kakhulu.

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Isenzo sobudlova esijwayelekile saba nabahlanganyeli
abangama-50 000, kanti imikhankaso engahileli ubudlova

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yayinabahlanganyeli abangama-200 000 ngokwesilinganiso.

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Lokhu kuvumele ukuthi kuthathwe izinyathelo ezibanzi,
okwandisa izindleko zokugcina isimo esikhona sohlelo.

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Imikhankaso engenabudlova nayo ivulekile kakhulu
ekubambeni kwabesifazane nabantu asebekhulile, ngoba le

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misebenzi iyingozi encane kunokumelana okunobudlova.

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Ngokuka-Erica Chenoweth, uma kufinyelelwa kubantu
abanhlobonhlobo emphakathini, umbuso awukwazi

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ukugcina amandla awo ngokubamba iqhaza okungu-10%.

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Yebo, ngisho nangokubamba iqhaza
okungu-5% kuphela, kuzoba nzima kuhulumeni.

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2. Abantu ababandakanyekayo kunzima kakhulu ukuwahlukanisa.

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Abahlanganyeli emikhankasweni engenabudlova bavame ukumela
izingxenye ezahlukene kakhulu zabantu, njengoba imikhankaso

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engenabudlova ivame ukuhlanganisa abantu abanobulili obuhlukene,
iminyaka ehlukene, izinkolo ezahlukene, ubuzwe

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obuhlukene, izimfundiso ezahlukene, imisebenzi
ehlukene kanye nezimo zomnotho nempilo ehlukene.

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Lokhu kwenza kube nzima kakhulu kubaphikisi
ukuhlukanisa abahlanganyeli nokucindezela.

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3. Imikhankaso engenabudlova inamathuba amaningi
okuthuthukisa amasu nemibono emisha ngenxa

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yokuhlukahluka nokwanda kwenani labahlanganyeli bayo.

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Ngokocwaningo, impumelelo yayingaxhomekile ekutheni
uhulumeni obusayo wawuyi-authoritarian, oqinile noma

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obuthakathaka, noma wazama ukucindezela umkhankaso ngodlame.

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Izinzuzo ezengeziwe zokumelana ngaphandle kodlame yilezi:

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- isikhathi esimaphakathi esifushane kakhulu (iminyaka emi-3
esikhundleni seminyaka eyisi-9 ezingxabanweni ezinezenzo zodlame)

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- ukufa, ukulimala, ukonakala
nokucindezeleka kwengqondo okuncane kakhulu

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- ithuba eliphezulu kakhulu lokuthi
ukwethulwa kobuhlakani bokuzikhethela kuzonqoba

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phakathi neminyaka emihlanu ngemuva kwengxabano.

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Noma ngabe izivukelo ezinodlame ziyaphumelela,
kusazoba khona izimo zedemokhrasi ezweni esikhathini eside.

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Imiphumela ivamise ukuba ukuziphindiselela kubaxhasi bohulumeni
wangaphambilini, ukunganaki amalungelo ezingxenye ezincane

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zabantu, njll., okuholela ekutheni isimo
ezweni ngemva kwezingxabano zamaqembu ezibutho

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sivame ukuba sicindezela kakhulu kunangaphambilini.

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- Ukumelana okungadli ubudlova kunengozi ephansi yempi yombango
eyalandela, njengoba cishe ingxenye yesibili yazo

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zonke izimpi eziphumelelayo ezihilela izikhali iholela
empini entsha yezikhali phakathi neminyaka eyishumi.

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Umbono wokuthi udlame lunganqotshwa
kuphela ngodlame olubuyisayo awulona iqiniso.

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Kukhona ezinye izindlela eziningi eziphumelela kakhulu kunamandla
ezempi, ezingafani nemikhankaso yezempi,

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ezingaletha ukuthula kwangempela, okuhlala isikhathi
eside, okulungile nokudemokhrasi ezweni elithintekayo.

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Okwamanje, u-Erica Chenoweth uqhubekile nocwaningo
lwakhe phakathi kuka-2004 no-2019 wathola okulandelayo:

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Ukuvukela okungahileli udlame kuyaqhubeka
kuphumelela kakhulu kunalokho okuhlanganisa udlame.

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Nokho, ohulumeni sebephakelwe kangcono
ukubhekana nokumelana okungadluli emthethweni.

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Abadiktatela nezinhlaka zobuphathekayo
bafunde ukucindezela imizamo engasebenzisi udlame.

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Inhlangano yokumelana ngokungaphikisi ubudlova
ibhekene nezinselelo ezilandelayo ekhulwini lama-21:

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- Ukubika okungakhethi uhlangothi kuvinjelwa ngokucenzura
nokwengwa, kanti izindaba ezingamanga zisasazwa ngohulumeni.

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- Izinhlangano ezingasebenzisi udlame
ezinengxenye ehlukumezayo ziye zanda.

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Abahlaseli abaqhushumbisayo
bayasetshenziswa kakhulu ukuletha udlame emkhankasweni.

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I-agent provocateur ngumuntu osebenza egameni lezikhundla
eziphethe umthetho ezifana namaphoyisa, ihhovisi lomshushisi

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womphakathi noma izinsizakalo ezimfihlo ukuze
angene eqenjini noma enhlanganweni futhi agqugquzele

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amalungu ayo ukuba enze izenzo ezingekho emthethweni.

11:31.088 --> 11:35.279
Lezi zimpiko ezidlulele zodlame zinciphisa impumelelo yomzamo.

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Ngakho-ke: Qaphela ukungenelela okuqondisiwe kwabantu abanodlame!

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- Izenzo namathuba edijithali kubalwa ngokweqile.

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Nakuba kungenzeka ukuhlanganisa abantu ngokushesha
nge-inthanethi, lokhu ngokuvamile akukhokeleli emikhankasweni

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yesikhathi eside lapho abantu bedinga ukwazana siqu.

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- Imvamisa, isikhathi namandla okuncane
kakhulu kuyatshalwa ekucwangciseni imikhankaso

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nasekukhuthazeni ukuvumelana ngaphakathi komzamo.

11:59.861 --> 12:06.179
Umkhankaso ophumelelayo wokumelana udinga
amanethiwekhi aqinile amaqembu lapho abantu bezazana

12:06.179 --> 12:10.447
kahle futhi besekelana lapho kuba nokucindezelwa.

12:10.447 --> 12:15.938
Naphezu kwalezi zinselelo, ukumelana ngaphandle
kodlame kuyaqhubeka nokuba nempumelelo enkulu.

12:15.938 --> 12:20.442
Kungani indlela engenabudlova
ingakaze ithathwe kaningi kuze kube manje?

12:20.442 --> 12:25.182
Ababhali bocwaningo bakholelwa ukuthi lokhu
kungenxa yokungabi nolwazi ngemvelo, amathuba kanye

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namathuba okuphumelela okungumelana okungadli ubudlova.

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Akumangazi ukuthi lolu cwaningo luvame ukunganakwa
kakhulu ngabezepolitiki, abezindaba kanye nezifundiswa.

12:33.468 --> 12:39.518
Phela, inzuzo etholwa ezimpini ingabekwa
engcupheni uma kuqala ukuqondwa ukuthi kunezindlela

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ezisebenza kangcono kakhulu kunamandla ezempi.

12:43.226 --> 12:47.920
Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi imodeli yebhizinisi
yomkhakha wezikhali isekelwe endabeni yokuthi

12:47.920 --> 12:51.570
ukumelana ngodlame kuyadingeka futhi kubalulekile.

12:51.570 --> 12:56.601
Isiphetho: Kumele sibe namakhono okuthula, hhayi empini!

12:56.601 --> 13:03.512
Ngakho-ke sicela nisabalalise lolu lwazi ngokwabelana
ngalo lolu hlelo ezinkundleni zokuxhumana, isibonelo!

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Kuphela uma imiphumela yocwaningo lolu yamukelwa, kungavinjwa
ukuchithwa kwegazi okukhulu nokubhujiswa okwengeziwe,

13:10.999 --> 13:19.445
futhi labo abazuza empini ngeke basakwazi ukwenza inzuzo
ngokuhlupheka kwabantu nokubhujiswa kwezizwe eziphelele.

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Ungathembi imidiya yokuxhumana ku-inthanethi, kodwa hlangana
nabantu abanemicabango efanayo ongabathemba empilweni yangempela.

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Kuphela ngokubambisana lapho umjikelezo wodlame ungaphulwa.

13:32.171 --> 13:38.392
Sidinga abantu abamile benye ngenxa
yokuthula futhi abahola ngesibonelo.

13:38.392 --> 13:49.445
I-Kla.TV ijabule ukusekela ukuxhumana kwendawo kwabantu abathanda
ukuthula ngosizo lwefomu lokuxhumana ku-www.kla.tv/vernetzung.